QKL123 market analysis | Bitcoin is good for the upside, the cottage is not good (0904)

Abstract: Yesterday morning, good news was released, Bitcoin had an upside, but the altcoin was weak. In a short time, if the bitcoin attack is blocked, the market may have a callback demand.

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According to QKL123 statistics, at 13 o'clock on September 4, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 1,950.547 billion yuan, the total market value of 24-hour increased or decreased by +1.36%, the total turnover was 431.752 billion yuan, and the total turnover changed by +.30%. Market activity has increased. The Babbitt Composite Index reported 13692.09 points, up 24 points to +0.88%; the Alternative sentiment index was 43, which was slightly higher than yesterday (41), and the market sentiment was mildly feared.

Among the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), BTC had the largest increase in 24 hours (+1.67%), and XRP had the largest decline in 24 hours (-2.59%). The market value of BTC (69.30%) increased slightly compared with yesterday (69.02%), the highest since 2018, ETH 24 hours up +0.01%, market share (7.09%) slightly lower than yesterday (7.18%) The market risk aversion is still high. ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index reported 99.63 points, 24 hours up and down to +0.14%, USDT 24 hours up and down -0.13%, today's net capital inflow -139.94 million yuan, compared with yesterday (+1136.91 million) .

Today's global Bitcoin Google search relative value (peak 92) is slightly lower than yesterday (peak 95), close to the seven-day high. The top seven countries are Nigeria (100), Brazil (55), Ghana (48), Austria (46), South Africa (44), Germany (44) and Switzerland (42). Among them, Germany's Bitcoin search heat (peak 96) continued to increase compared to yesterday (peak 84).

Analyst's point of view: Yesterday's good news, US asset management companies VanEck and SolidX will jointly launch the VanEck SolidX Bitcoin Trust on Thursday, which is only for qualified institutions such as hedge funds and brokers, similar to Bitcoin ETFs. The introduction of new products, while improving the liquidity of Bitcoin, will also directly compete with the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, which is well-known in the market, which will reduce the investment cost of investors. Yesterday, Bitcoin continued to move upwards, but the weak linkage of the altcoin currency indicates that the overall market attack power is insufficient. In a short time, pay attention to the upper resistance level of 11,000 US dollars, the possibility of callback power is greater.

First, the spot BTC market

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Yesterday, after a small shock of 10,300 US dollars, the BTC quickly increased its volume at 18:00. After hitting a maximum of 10,760 US dollars, it fell back. At present, it has shrunk slightly around 10,600 US dollars, and the army has been temporarily suppressed. From the perspective of the K-line, the MACD gold fork appears, the BTC is in the upper position of the convergence triangle, and the short-term attention to the upper resistance is 11,000 USD, and there may be a callback.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, BTC's net outflow of funds today was 4,736,800 yuan, which was reversed from yesterday. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 494.471 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 171.36 million yuan, the middle of the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The inflow of 23,393,500 yuan, the small outflow (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 38.367 million yuan. The market is mostly dominated by oversized singles.

2. Fundamentals

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At present, BTC's total network computing power is 80.58EH/s, which is slightly higher than yesterday (79.20EH/s), close to the historical high, and the long-term upward trend has not changed. Yesterday, the number of coins destroyed was 6.734 million (historically smaller) than the previous day (539.74 million), but the long-term uptrend was not destroyed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the chain was 769,000, a significant increase from the previous day (725,200), close to a one-month high.

Second, the spot ETH market

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Yesterday afternoon, ETH turned from $180 to $174 and then turned upward. After the highest price reached $183, it began to fluctuate in the early hours of the morning. The ETH/BTC transaction hit a new low in the year and is now slightly fluctuating around 0.0167BTC. Performance is still relatively weak.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, ETH's net inflow of funds today was 28,069,300 yuan, a significant decrease from yesterday (88,008,400 yuan). Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 55,649,700 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 5,851,100 yuan, the middle (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The inflow was 162,944,100 yuan, and the net inflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 1,846.5 million yuan. The market is mostly built in small orders.

2. Fundamentals

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Observing DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp increased slightly. Among them, the game application My Crypto Heroes's 24-hour active users 2.5k, 24-hour change -4.38%; financial application MakerDAO 24-hour active users 1.5k, 24 hours change +6.46%; trading application IDEX 24-hour active users The number is 468, 24 hours change + 1.74%.

Third, the spot LTC market

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At 4 o'clock in the morning, LTC inserted a needle of 71 dollars, and then returned to yesterday's high of 67 dollars to oscillate, the short-term upward willingness to break is weak. The LTC/BTC trading volatility near the new low of 0.0064BTC during the year was relatively weak.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, the net inflow of LTC funds today was 65.126 million yuan, a significant decrease from yesterday (25195.70 million yuan). Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 28.418 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 4,863.85 yuan, the net inflow (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net inflow 725.575 million yuan, a small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 276.692 yuan. The market is mostly built in the middle of the market.

2. Fundamentals

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At present, LTC's total network computing power is 345.46TH/s, which is significantly higher than yesterday (287.64TH/s), tending to a high point in a month. After the block reward is halved, the computing power tends to decrease, and some miners withdraw. It may take some time to recover if the equipment is eliminated. Yesterday, the number of LTC coins destroyed (107.583 million, historically small), compared with the previous day (818.28 million), the long-term trend has not been destroyed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the chain was 56,800, a slight decrease from the previous day (59,000), close to the low since March.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

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At 20 o'clock yesterday, EOS slightly touched up to 3.46 US dollars, and now it has quickly and slightly reduced its volume to around 3.3 US dollars. The EOS/BTC transaction is close to the new low in the year and is currently back to near 0.00032 BTC, showing relatively weak performance.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, EOS's net capital inflow today was 89,109,900 yuan, which was reversed yesterday. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 1,287,100 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 1,333.53 yuan, the net inflow (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net inflow The net inflow of 766.54 million yuan and small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 365,600 yuan. The market has a large divergence.

2. Fundamentals

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According to DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp was slightly reduced. Among them, the game's PROSPECTORS 24 hours of users 3k, compared with yesterday's change -0.98%; quiz application Dice's 24-hour active users 2.1k, compared with yesterday's change -7.51%; data application Lumeos's 24-hour active users 1.5k, compared Yesterday's change was +2.77%; the number of 24-hour active users trading Newdex was 1.3k, which was +10.58% compared with yesterday.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is improving. Currently, it is in the stage of partial adjustment. The market of mad cows may come in the next one to two years. The relative price of the intelligent contract platform leader ETH, the altcoin leader LTC, and the DPoS leader EOS BTC is close to the new low in the year, and can be configured on a dip.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

In the near future, it is expected to go out of the upward trend, and those who do not have a strong position will be bargain-hunting.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

Short-term range volatility, small position low suction high throw, mainly broken stop loss.

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Appendix – Index Interpretation

Babbitt Composite Index

The Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) consists of the largest and most representative Tokens in the global market for existing blockchains to reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain Token market.

Alternative mood index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects the emotional changes in the market, with 0 meaning “extreme fear” and 100 meaning “extreme greed”. The indicators include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), trend (10%).

USDT Off-exchange Discount Index

The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. An index of 100 indicates USDT parity, an index greater than 100 indicates a USDT premium, and a value less than 100 indicates a USDT discount.

Net inflow of funds (out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds from the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow of funds and the outflow of funds on the global exchange (not including false transactions), positive values ​​indicate net inflows of funds, while negative values ​​indicate net outflows of funds. Among them, the turnover is calculated as the inflow of funds when the rise, and the turnover is calculated as the outflow when the decline occurs.

Coin-day destruction

Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days of Bitcoin holdings. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market.

BTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 100 million is the maximum value; 50 to 100 million is the larger value; 10 to 50 million is the median; less than or equal to 10 million is the smaller value.

LTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 500 million is the maximum value; 100 million to 500 million is the larger value; 50 to 100 million is the median; less than or equal to 50 million is the smaller value.

Number of active addresses on the chain

The number of active addresses on the chain refers to the number of addresses in the chain address of the block chain. Usually, this indicator can reflect the activity level of a chain of a public chain, and the demand activities under the chain such as secondary market transactions and wallet use will have a greater impact on it.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.