According to the analysis of BitcoinEconomics, the necessary time for profit taking Bitcoin is 1,335 days or about 3 years and 8 months, which means that anyone buying Bitcoin at any price will be 100% profitable within 1335 days. . This necessary time is roughly related to the length of the four-year cycle based on the halving of the BTC award.
Bitcoin profit probability chart. Source: BitcoinEconomics.io
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Profiting from bitcoin requires patience
Based on this probability data, if you have already bought at the top of BTC's historical price, it will take up to 1,335 days before Bitcoin finally breaks through the 2017 all-time high. In other words, BTC will have a high probability of breaking through the high of $19,000 between 2019 and 2021.
Suppose you buy at the highest point in a wave of gains. Holding Bitcoin for 317 days will give you a 75% chance of profit. Holding Bitcoin for 35 days will also give you a 60% chance to turn it over. The probability of making a profit is 50%.
If this sounds like a long time, we can compare it with the S&P 500 index. In order to make a profit on 100% of the S&P 500, you have to hold 23 years.
Also, keep in mind that this analysis is purely about the probability of profit, not the size of the profit. When Bitcoin is in a bull market, the profit available from the BTC dwarfs the stock market index. For example, the Gray Bitcoin Investment Trust has outperformed all assets so far in 2019 and has appreciated nearly 300% year-to-date.