In the previous article "Sina "Oasis" thinking: the key to the development of the cryptocurrency industry lies in the business ecology behind it," the author once mentioned a very interesting thing: the cryptocurrency industry currently has a fatal problem: That is, the vision of many practitioners is not broad enough. It is easy to focus only on the cryptocurrency and blockchain technology itself, but lack understanding of the development of other distributed business segments, so that although they keep saying that they want to make blocks Chains can be used in the real estate industry, but they can't find the scene of the cryptocurrency. They can only watch the various tokens idling back and forth between “model” and “fraud”.
Strictly speaking, the indifference of the digital currency industry to the real business ecology is not unilateral. The real economy industry, even the emerging distributed businesses of young people, is not profoundly aware of the cryptocurrency industry. From the past experience, this situation is really not a special case. The financial and dry entities have always been in a state of "not seeing each other, but must be interdependent" – although the former suspects that the latter does not know how to adapt. The latter did not understand the industry, but if there was no "dry entity", the financial industry immediately became empty shelves, and the banknotes in hand were turned into waste paper in minutes. Without "dry finance", the "dry entity" immediately returned to the primitive era, and work enthusiasm was greatly affected. That is to say, in theory, digital currency (dry finance) and distributed commerce (dry entity) are actually an indispensable combination.
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But here, we have to pay attention: one of the dilemmas facing the cryptocurrency industry today is that although distributed commerce is highly dependent on electronically morphological currencies that can flow quickly, this currency does not have to be based on blockchains, especially the current ones. "Bottom public chain", there are many applications for accessing Alipay and WeChat payment functions on the market, and many live well. That is to say, distributed business can not understand the cryptocurrency when accessing the traditional payment system, but the reverse is not possible. The cryptocurrency industry must study and understand distributed commerce, because this is directly related to Whether the industry can continue to survive in the future.
First, the high cost of acquisition: the future of blockchain in the distributed business field of entertainment
Specifically, look at distributed commerce.
Regarding the meaning of this concept, in the previous article, the author once mentioned: It refers to the digital technology-driven, the economic and social powers have been greatly decentralized, from the original large and medium-sized enterprises. Decentralized to the hands of small and medium-sized enterprises, even individuals. Many of the hot science and technology products that people have seen in recent years, such as micro-business, self-media, small videos, and even mobile games, can be counted as products of distributed commerce (of course, just like the financial industry). Like a special branch in the macro economy, cryptocurrency actually belongs to a special branch of distributed commerce. Because of the large number of participants, there is no historical legacy in centralized commerce. Therefore, distributed commerce can be said. It is the landing scene where cryptocurrency is the easiest to create a prosperous ecology.
However, if you naively believe that the cryptocurrency simply “+” with the mobile business segmentation fields of mobile games, media, and live video, it forms a strong alliance, and since then it has stepped on the times. The big vent, that is a big mistake. Although the next custodian of cryptocurrency is definitely in the field of distributed commerce, new businesses like the one mentioned above, including media, small videos, mobile games, almost all face a problem: although these areas are relatively traditional The industry is relatively "new", but its development has also been going through a period of time, the traffic pattern has been solidified in the hands of the giants, and the cost of acquiring users after the entry is getting higher and higher. So what if you want to get traffic? Only choose to cooperate with the giants. However, the problem is that the current Internet giants are not particularly interested in the cooperation with the new cryptocurrency companies. The specific reasons include: the poor reputation of the currency companies, the compliance issues of cryptocurrencies, and the higher cost of cooperation with the outside world. The cost of developing tokens yourself.
From this point of view, for the cryptocurrency industry, all the portals that grassroots startups can think of can cut into distributed business have been blocked, and as a result, cryptocurrencies have always lacked a wide range. A high-frequency, sustainable ecosystem is a circulation channel without demand and circulation. What is your value? If you don't have value, you can't talk about value investing, let alone imagine what a big bull market is.
What should I do? Can cryptocurrency also find a distributed business system suitable for its development? Even bigger, is there a future for this industry? At the moment, hopes are still there, but it must be in the right direction: Since existing distributed commercial applications cannot be the entry point for cryptocurrencies, then people can only look for new and potential explosive applications. After all, you can only get the number of users at a relatively low cost when an industry becomes a pioneer.
But where is the emerging field with low customer costs? This question is actually simple and simple, and it is difficult and difficult to say. The so-called simplicity means that the general idea is very simple, and it can even be used in one word. The so-called difficulty mainly refers to the difficulty of implementing this idea, which requires a lot of investigation, research and analysis. Due to limited space, in today's article, the author only introduces the idea of the cryptocurrency industry looking for low-cost customers. As for the specific details, it will be continuously introduced in future series of articles.
The first thing to understand is the so-called acquisition of the user. What exactly does it mean to get the user? In the past two years, people used to use the words "flow" to refer to the number of users, and "flow thinking" was also simply and rudely described as the number of users, not to mention, in In this article today, the author has said several less formal words for custom reasons. However, with a little thought, you will find that the number of users can't completely cover the true essence of the word "getting customers". For example, A application has 11,000 people logging in every day, only 5 minutes online. The B application has 10,000 people logging in every day, but the average online time is one hour. Then who do you say the ecology is more prosperous? For those who want to advertise, is he more likely to spend money on A apps or B apps? The answer is clear at a glance.
Therefore, in recent years, people have not said "flow thinking", but changed to a new word "attention economy", in fact, in addition to the number of users, plus the per capita online time dimension. The problem is that the concept of attention is too abstract. Although people generally understand what attention is, they don't understand the factors that determine the size of this resource. This is actually the Internet that the author once mentioned. A typical case of the industry "making new words"). In fact, the user's "attention resources" to be acquired by the cryptocurrency industry is actually the user's time resource. The formula is probably "number of online people × average online time". So the next key is that you need to judge which areas of the Internet community’s time resources will be tilted in the next few years, or specifically, how their timetable structure will change. What kind of application spends more time? I want to understand this question. The cryptocurrency industry is not far from grasping the next vent.
Second, the timetable accounted for a bottoming out, non-entertainment applications or into the cryptocurrency ecological portal
So how do you figure out the future changes in people's timetables? There are many analytical methods for this problem. In the author's thinking framework, there are two key factors. One is to predict people's future intentions and needs, and the other is to judge whether future objective conditions can support these intentions.
Specifically, people's subjective intentions change. In the eyes of some digital economy researchers, in this era of “entertainment to death”, people's needs in the future will definitely develop in an increasingly entertaining direction, including small videos, gossip. The entertainment industry, including news and video games, will continue to be the gold industry, which is why many cryptocurrency practitioners have to rely on their own tokens in these industries. From the various chain tours to the social chain of blocks, this is the embodiment of this idea, but in my opinion, this idea may not be accurate. If you have an understanding of group psychology, you will find that there is a very interesting trend in the psychological changes of the group: that is, it is repetitive.
I believe many of my friends have this feeling: a person's psychological state is often unstable, sometimes in a state of excitement, and sometimes at a low tide. Sometimes I am interested in this kind of thing, and sometimes I am interested in that kind of thing. Interestingly, the social group consisting of many people is also like this, or to be precise, the psychological characteristics of social groups are actually very close to the psychological state of ordinary people who are visible in daily life. For example, in the state of life, "burning culture – funeral culture – burning culture…", pop culture, "nostalgic tide – chasing new tide – nostalgic tide…", life attitude is worthy – human is not worth – human It is worth…" It can be said that as long as it is subject to subjective emotions, its development will show a state of volatility. Many people are deeply confused. However, this feature of the user community, although repeated, is not particularly impermanent. As long as you understand this subjective feature and combine it with the actual situation at the time (such as policy environment, infrastructure, spending power, etc.), there are still rules to follow.
According to this logic, it is not difficult to see that in the timetable that ordinary people are currently being filled by small videos, network segments, and video games, there is actually a potential possibility: they are After the entertainment activities are tired, it is likely to pick up the non-entertainment activities such as “knowledge payment”, “lifelong learning” and “fragmented charging” that they have discarded in the previous two years. That is to say, the pan-entertainment activities are in them. The total proportion of the timetable is likely to “fall down” and be replaced by other activities that are not related to entertainment, and these activities are the best entry for ordinary people (cryptocurrency industry) to cut into distributed business, because only In these activities, latecomers can acquire a large number of users at a lower cost. Such activities are likely to be familiar to people, such as knowledge payment, medical health, etc. After all, people's concerns, in fact, over and over again. Therefore, I personally believe that the non-financial field with the greatest potential for blockchain landing will not be the “blockchain game” that is now in full swing, but it is likely to be similar to the application of “blockchain knowledge payment”.
However, unfortunately, at present, it is difficult for us to judge the application that can occupy the people's timetable in the future. What will be specifically, because these applications will certainly not reappear in the original form, but will change their face after self-upgrading. It is also difficult to tell where the “top” of the proportion of the pan-entertainment activity in the people's time list is and when. But what is certain is that for those who want to pursue the blockchain technology, they are now chasing high on the pan-entertainment track that has become the Red Sea. The cost-to-cost ratio is very low. Now the public chain The "chain tour" where the developers are more than the players and the tombstones are solitary is the trace and evidence of the relevant lessons.