Defeat the dry season: Will the miners' northward move be smooth in 2019?

The core competitiveness of mining is energy. Who can find cheap energy means mastering the most core resources in the industry. In the last article, "Digging for Ten Years: Things Are Human Beings, Ideals Still Exist", the threshold of professional miners lies in the grasp of cheap electric energy, and 70% of the world's computing power The reason why we are concentrated in China is because we have the world's most abundant price and volume of power supply in the southwestern Fengshui period. The domestic miners migrated twice a year from the migratory birds, from the northernmost side of China to the southwestern part of China, and then moved back to the northwest after half a year. The miners are thirsty for years and years of migration, and they are not tired.

Every year from May to October, the southwestern region is in the rainy season. A large number of miners are pouring into Sichuan, Yunnan and other provinces to enjoy cheap and abundant hydropower. In the dry season at the end of the southwest rainy season in October, the miners depended on the northwestern thermal power and wind power generation in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, etc. The maximization of the mining benefits achieved by the alternate use of energy is the reason for the migration of Chinese miners.

Although the migration is almost a programmed process, even the veteran old miners dare not take it lightly at the mine conversion. Every sudden situation may cause miners to suffer huge losses. For example, the precipitation in the southwestern part of the country has been delayed by more than a month. The large number of already-running mines have no point to be used. The entire southwest miners are looking forward to it. The sky is raining.

 

01, Fengshui will do its best, and millions of mining machines will find another new home.

Although this year's southwest flood season was postponed, it is good that the secondary market started from April, and the market has remained high during the entire wet season. The flood season just happened to meet the Mavericks and completely ignited the miners FOMO. Passion. Many miners started the ALL IN-style mining.

From the data point of view, the lowest net profit of the whole network last year was 36.55E, which is 83.48E so far, which is an increase of 46.93E. Since entering the flood season in May, the computing power has increased by 30.12E within half a year. If the total net power of 83.48E is converted into 14T ant S9i, it will be equivalent to 6.2 million mining machines at the same time. The new mining machine during the period of Fengshui is the equivalent of 2.2 million ants s9i mining machines. On average, 400,000 mining machines were added each month.

However, this growth rate is not the end of mining growth, and a steady stream of new mining machines are being produced and flowed to the market. At present, it is known that the production capacity of the three major domestic mining machine manufacturers is all scheduled to be empty this year. This means that in the next few months, the mining machine capacity will continue to expand according to the current growth rate. By the end of this year, there is still a conservative estimate. Two million mine opportunities have joined the ranks of mining forces.

The market is good, the electricity bill is low, and the power supply is abundant. The first half of the year is the carnival of the mining industry. The period of the wet season is what the miners are talking about. With the approaching of the day in October, the welfare period of the Fengshui period is coming to an end, and the mine has issued a notice. At the end of October, the wet season of this year is fully declared. The busy scene of the deep mines in Sichuan and Yunnan will come to an end. In the southwest of the dry season, the scale of mining that can support the period is only one tenth or even one-twentieth of the current, and the price of power supply for large power grids will lose its advantage.

At the end of the flood season, millions of mining machines will face the problem of re-establishing their homes in a short period of time. Starting from the southwest and crossing the whole of China to the northwest annual electric mine, the miners' migration season is like a migratory bird, but the direction is just the opposite. The warm winter in the south is suitable for migratory birds to survive the winter, while the northern thermal power and wind power can protect millions of mines. The machine keeps running day and night.

A migratory trip has quietly begun. It is understood that many logistics companies in the southwestern provinces have prepared enough capacity to invest in the march of the mining machine.

02, the number of variables increased, the northern traditional mines are not optimistic

A large number of mining machines are waiting to be transported to Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Gansu and other places to stabilize the power supply field throughout the year. The north as a traditional energy province is the birthplace and base camp of domestic mining. Originally, the northern provinces should be the second half of the relay race of the mining industry. However, according to industry insiders, this year the northern mines face many challenges, and the situation may not be optimistic.

1) The mining machine increment exceeds the upper limit of the northwest mineral capacity, and some mining machines may be abandoned.

As we have analyzed above, the market has improved and the water resources have made the miners all in, and the mining machine has increased by two or three million units in half a year. At present, the total network computing power has far exceeded the historical maximum, so that the mine is short-lived. The spurt growth of the aircraft may have exceeded the upper limit of the mines in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and other places.

The intuitive feeling of the old miner Zhang Yang is that the supply of the mine site is obviously tight. His more than 1,000 mining machines have been hosted in a mine. In the past, he often cooperated with the mine to inform him that the aircraft is not enough. He can only Hosting some of the mining machines to another mine has undoubtedly increased his management difficulty.

At the same time, Zhang Yang also noticed a reduction in the bargaining space of the mine. A medium-sized miner like him can get the price of the agreement in the past year. Each kilowatt-hour will cost a penny less than the price of the mine, but this year it suddenly disappears. It can only be used at the price of the brand. According to his speculation, the miners who came later will definitely have to increase their fares.

The tension is still in the case of only considering the stock of mining machines, according to the mining machine manufacturer Bitland's chip purchase orders, only one of them, there will be 1.04 million new mining machines to the market in the first quarter of next year. It is already possible that the capacity of the northwestern mine that is stretched will be squeezed by the mining machine.

2) The policy still contains the throat of the mining machine growth

Xinjiang is the largest concentration of mines outside of Sichuan. The industry expects that Xinjiang's mine capacity accounts for about 20% of the domestic market. Coupled with the scale of neighboring Inner Mongolia, the two places basically determine the pattern of the annual electric mine. Since the beginning of this year, the Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region governments have issued several local documents related to mine construction, affected by the National Development and Reform Commission's Catalogue of Guidance on Industrial Structure Adjustment (2019, Draft for Soliciting Opinions). The core of the policy is Rectify the mines and curb the scale of the local mining industry.

We interviewed Liu Ming (a pseudonym), a senior operator of the former chain mine and now head of a mining mall business. According to the introduction, the mines with formal formalities in the past have been approved by the competent units of high-tech projects such as cloud computing and big data centers, and they are taking the route of wiping the ball.

This year's approval of such projects has attracted the attention of relevant parties. It is difficult for mines to approve such projects through subsidies, which means that new mines will lose preferential policies. If electricity is purchased at the price of industrial electricity, electricity The cost will be nearly half higher, and there is no competition at all in the market, so it is not a good business to build a new mine.

In addition, Liu Ming also introduced that according to the consistent policy rules, in order to ensure sufficient supply of winter energy after the winter, the principle is that large-scale energy-consuming projects will no longer be allowed to be launched. Liu Ming judged that it is unrealistic to add a large number of annual electric mines in a short period of time regardless of the policy or the time node. The miner's manufacturer will only deliver the miner to the user according to the production plan. The contradiction between the mining machine and the aircraft will continue to intensify.

The miners who have just been immersed in the ecstasy of Feng Shui may not realize that this year's Northwestern year is the real test for them. The battle is only a partial victory. The battlefield that really determines the outcome is stable. When the annual electricity supply.

03, holding the group for the winter, the small scattered miners have begun to spontaneously find a way out

In the face of extremely tight annual supply of motor positions, the first impact will be the interests of small scattered miners. Small miners are small and scattered, losing bargaining power before the mine scene, and the most likely to be abandoned by the mine are small scattered miners.

Zhang Hua is a typical small scattered miner. More than 100 machines are purely amateur mining, and they are highly dependent on the hosted packaging services provided by the mine. Zhang Hua realized that the market is not right. Recently, when he contacted the electric field in the whole year, because the volume was too small, he was asked by the mine to settle the electricity charge in advance and then bring the mining machine into the market. It is too much or even unreasonable in the industry. Of course, it is not him who meets such demanding requirements.

When small miners generally met the conditions for mine expulsion, they finally began to unite and act together in order to win a stronger voice in the market. In Zhang Hua’s small miners’ union group, there are already hundreds of miners like him. They share the information of the mines with advantages in the group every day. They feel that the good miners will act in unison and be represented by one person to go with the mine. Field negotiations.

The small group is out of helplessness, and the merchants are smelling the business opportunities. According to the author, the mining vertical store LBU has launched a mining machine custody group purchase service. The platform is re-dispersed to the small-distributed miners with large-scale mass and large-scale mines. The author sees that the annual electricity price of 0.32 is not much worse than that of the big miners, and there is a platform centered for the miners to guarantee and supervise the custody. The implementation of the agreement is also a good way for small and medium-sized miners to face the electricity in the whole year.

It is already a foregone conclusion of this year's mining machine hosting. The service that can be managed by the group can only alleviate the weak position of the small scattered miners. On the big pattern, this year's miners' northward road will certainly not go smoothly. A large number of newly purchased mining machines in the first half of the year are still far from returning. The key to determining whether the miners can make real profits this year is still in the second half of the dry season. In the second half of the year, the miners’ competition is the mine position. Next, how do the miners look? The Eight Immortals crossed the sea and showed their magical powers.

Source: Calculation Power