QKL123 market analysis | Fed rate cuts "in line with expectations", but the market changed downwards (0919)

Abstract: In the early hours of the morning, although the Fed’s interest rate cut was “in line with expectations”, the interest rate cut was weak, and the US dollar was weak for a short time. Gold and bitcoin were short-term and short-term. If the US dollar depreciation is expected to rise in the future, it will tend to be positive. After 10 o'clock in the morning, the bitcoin in the sideways market changed downwards for a short period of time, and the uncertainty was short.

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According to QKL123 statistics, at 13 o'clock on September 19, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 1,888.22 billion yuan, the total market value of 24-hour increased or decreased by -3.57%, the total turnover was 484.248 billion yuan, and the total turnover changed by +7.20%. Market activity has increased. The Babbitt Composite Index reported 13607.31 points, up 24 hours to -3.84%; the Alternative sentiment index was 31, which was lower than yesterday (38), and the market sentiment was still fearful.

Among the top ten encrypted assets in the market capitalization (excluding USDT), XLM had the largest increase in 24 hours (+14.84%), and BSV had the largest decline in 24 hours (-5.05%). BTC rose by -3.01% in 24 hours, market share (65.62%) was slightly lower than yesterday, and market risk aversion was slightly lower. The USDT has risen and fallen to +0.61% in 24 hours. Today's net inflow of funds was 382,204,300 yuan, which was higher than yesterday. The ChaiNext USDT over-the-counter discount index was reported at 99.71, with a 24-hour rise and fall of +0.21%.

In the past day, global Bitcoin's Google search relative value (peak 88) was significantly lower than yesterday (peak 94), approaching a six-month low. The top seven countries in the heat are Nigeria (100), Ghana (46), South Africa (43), Brazil (42), Austria (40), Switzerland (36) and Germany (34). In the past day, the global Ethereum's Google search relative value (peak 60) dropped significantly from yesterday (peak 100), close to the seven-day average.

Analyst's point of view:

At 2 o'clock in the morning, the Fed decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but gold and US stocks fell slightly, while Bitcoin also fell back. This is the second time the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates since December 2008. The interest rate cut has not exceeded market expectations and has been digested by the market. The short-term performance of the asset market confirms this.

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Under normal circumstances, a country's interest rate cuts will reduce the cost of loans, prompting funds to flow out of banks, thereby increasing market liquidity, which will promote economic recovery, and will also bring depreciation pressure to the domestic currency. For anti-inflation assets such as Bitcoin. Said to be good. However, in the context of the current global economic slowdown and strong interest rate cuts in the world, the Fed’s interest rate cuts appear to be weak, not only failing to produce a dollar depreciation expectation, but short-terming the dollar to strengthen, thus allowing gold and other dollar-denominated assets to go accordingly. weak.

In short, this time the Fed’s interest rate cut “in line with expectations” has pushed the dollar stronger. For Bitcoin, it is short-term, but if it can be superimposed, it will turn into a positive.

First, the spot BTC market

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BTC sideways for several days, finally ushered in a change this morning. After 10:00 am, the BTC began to fall in volume, falling by nearly 5% in ten minutes and hitting a minimum of $9,600. At present, the Air Force has been temporarily suppressed, and the BTC has oscillated around $9,800, which is in the middle of the triangle convergence zone of the daily line. The short-term uncertainty is large.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, BTC's net outflow of funds today was 2,258,809,400 yuan, a significant increase from yesterday's outflow. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow is 25,723,200 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow is 875,464,200 yuan, and the medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net Outflow of 10,1095.00 yuan, small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 43897.60 yuan. The market is mostly dominated by large orders and medium orders.

2. Fundamentals

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Yesterday, the average calculation power of the BTC network was 95.52EH/s, which was higher than the previous day (88.96EH/s), which was close to the historical high point. The long-term upward trend has not changed; the number of active addresses on the chain is 859,200, compared with the previous day ( 78.32 million) has increased, approaching a one-month high. The number of currency days destroyed yesterday was 14.58 million (the historical median), which was significantly higher than the previous day (679.76 million), but the long-term uptrend was not destroyed.

Second, the spot ETH market

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Yesterday, ETH hit a high of 217 US dollars and began to go down. This morning, the heavy volume dropped, the lowest hit 202 US dollars, has not fallen below the support, and is currently fluctuating around 205 US dollars. The relative price of ETH's BTC has been reduced and then pulled back to 0. 0210 BTC near the shock, short-term performance is strong.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, ETH's net inflow of funds today was 225,553,600 yuan, a significant decrease from yesterday. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 10.54 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 62.791 million yuan, the middle (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The inflow of 486.593 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 12457.40 million. The market is mostly built with small orders.

2. Fundamentals

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Observing the DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp has rebounded, adding 3 DApps. Among them, the game application My Crypto Heroes has 24 hours of active users 2.2k, 24 hours change +49.45%; financial application MakerDAO's 24-hour active users 2.0k, 24-hour change -16.35%; trading application IDEX 24-hour active users The number is 437, 24 hours change +5.56%.

Third, the spot LTC market

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LTC began to go down in the early hours of the morning, with an upward insertion of $80 on the way. It was down in the morning and hit a low of $72. The LTC/BTC trades are strong and weak after the performance, and they are obviously heavy in a short time. They are now returning to around 0.0075BTC yesterday.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, the net inflow of LTC funds today was 2,940,800 yuan, a significant decrease from yesterday. Among them, the large inflow (more than or equal to 1 million yuan) net inflow of 14.0955 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 4957.19 yuan, the net inflow (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net inflow 1,927,200 yuan, a small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 35,560,700 yuan. There are differences in the market, and most of them are built with large orders.

2. Fundamentals

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Yesterday, the average net computing power of LTC was 309.06TH/s, which was slightly lower than yesterday (327.35TH/s), which was close to the one-month average. After the halving of the block reward on August 05, the computing power has declined. This may be related to the withdrawal of some miners or the elimination of equipment, which will take some time to recover. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the LTC chain was 109,800, which was close to a one-month high; the number of coins destroyed (134.403 million, historically small) was significantly lower than the previous day (391.614 billion), and the long-term trend was not destroyed.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

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EOS hit a low of 3.8 US dollars this morning, and now it has returned to the vicinity of 3.9 US dollars, and has not yet effectively fell below the support. The EOS/BTC trading pair has slightly declined, and it is currently oscillating around 0.00039 BTC, showing short-term weakness.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, EOS's net outflow of funds today was 394,664,400 yuan, which was reversed yesterday. Among them, the overflow of large single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net flow of 2,223,900 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 23.15 million yuan, between the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow was 195,631,800 yuan, and the net outflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 179,760,600 yuan. The market is mostly reduced by medium and small orders.

2. Fundamentals

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According to DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp increased slightly, and the number of new Dapps was 1. Among them, the number of 24-hour active users using Dice is 3.6k, which is +34.58% compared with yesterday; the number of 24-hour users of game PROSPECTORS is 2.8k, which is -3.68% compared with yesterday; the number of 24-hour active users of data application Lumeos is 1.5k. Compared with yesterday's change, +0.41%; the number of 24-hour active users who applied Newdex for trading was 1.4k, which was -10.52% compared with yesterday.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is improving. At present, the high probability is in the stage of partial adjustment. The mad cow market is likely to arrive in the next one to two years. The relative price of the BTC of the intelligent contract platform leader ETH, the cottage coin LTC, and the DPoS leader EOS is close to the low of the year, and can be configured on a dip.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

In the near term, the market is expected to step out of the upward trend.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

In a short period of time, the small position is backed by the support of high throwing and low sucking, and the stop loss is broken.

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VI. Appendix – Index Interpretation

1. Babbitt Composite Index

The Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) consists of the largest and most representative Tokens in the global market for existing blockchains to reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain Token market.

2.Alternative sentiment index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects the emotional changes in the market, with 0 meaning “extreme fear” and 100 meaning “extreme greed”. The indicators include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), trend (10%).

3.USDT Off-exchange Discount Index

The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. An index of 100 indicates USDT parity, an index greater than 100 indicates a USDT premium, and a value less than 100 indicates a USDT discount.

4. Google search trends

This refers to Google web search data results, the relative value of the search in the specified time and region: the hottest record of 100, the heat accounted for the highest half of 50, there is not enough data of 0. Note: The higher the score in a country, the higher the percentage of search terms in all local search terms, and does not mean the absolute number of searches.

5. Net inflow of funds (out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds from the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow of funds and the outflow of funds on the global exchange (not including false transactions), positive values ​​indicate net inflows of funds, while negative values ​​indicate net outflows of funds. Among them, the turnover is calculated as the inflow of funds when the rise, and the turnover is calculated as the outflow when the decline occurs.

6. Coin-day destruction

Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days of Bitcoin holdings. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. BTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 100 million is the maximum value; 50 to 100 million is the larger value; 10 to 50 million is the median; less than or equal to 10 million is the smaller value. LTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 500 million is the maximum value; 100 million to 500 million is the larger value; 50 to 100 million is the median; less than or equal to 50 million is the smaller value.

7. Number of active addresses on the chain

The number of active addresses on the chain refers to the number of addresses in the chain address of the block chain. Usually, this indicator can reflect the activity level of a chain of a public chain, and the demand activities under the chain such as secondary market transactions and wallet use will have a greater impact on it.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.