QKL123 Quote Analysis | Tail shock wash, next week or will go out (0920)

Abstract: After the market's strong dishwashing this morning, Bitcoin extended the triangle convergence range along the volatility downside. Ethereum's performance was slightly stronger. Most of the altcoins were slightly weaker and will continue to be washed in recent days. The two events next week may be fermented and it is possible to reverse the recent situation.

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According to QKL123 statistics, at 13 o'clock on September 20, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 19,411.80 billion yuan, the total market value of 24 hours increased or decreased by +3.64%, the total turnover was 140.073 billion yuan, and the total turnover changed by +3.44%. The market activity has increased slightly. The Babbitt Composite Index reported 14078.88 points, up 24 hours to +3.30%; the Alternative sentiment index was 41, which was higher than yesterday (31), and the market sentiment was still fearful.

Among the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), ETH had the largest increase in 24 hours (+5.45%), and XLM had the largest decline in 24 hours (-2.76%). BTC rose by +2.82% in 24 hours. The market value (65.58%) was slightly lower than yesterday, and the market risk aversion was slightly lower. The USDT has risen and fallen to -0.52% for 24 hours. Today's net inflow of funds was 800,125,300 yuan, which was significantly higher than yesterday. The ChaiNext USDT over-the-counter discount index was reported at 99.38, which was up to -0.32% in 24 hours.

In the past day, Bitcoin's Google search relative value (peak 100) increased significantly from yesterday (peak 91), hitting a seven-day high. The top seven countries in the heat are Nigeria (100), South Africa (46), Ghana (45), Brazil (44), Austria (42), Switzerland (39) and Germany (38). In the past day, the global Ethereum's Google search relative value (peak 75) has rebounded from yesterday (peak 61), higher than the seven-day average.

Analyst's point of view:

There are two very interesting events next week, when the market may be fermented:

First, on September 23, Bakkt launched its futures contract. Bakkt was born with a gold spoon, and its participants involved Li Ka-shing's Horizons venture capital, Tencent's major shareholder Naspers, Microsoft Ventures, Boston Consulting Group, Intercontinental Exchange, Starbucks, etc., to provide compliant bitcoin physical delivery futures products and Related Services. The launch of the exchange is beneficial to the ecological development of the cryptocurrency industry and will bring new blood to the market.

Second, on September 29th, the Wilshire Phoenix Bitcoin ETF proposal will be decided by the SEC. Although the Bitcoin ETF proposal has not been adopted, it will be passed as the encryption assets become more transparent and liquid, and there will be more new capital inflows. In addition, another Bitwise Bitcoin ETF worthy of attention will be finalized in October.

First, the spot BTC market

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Yesterday, BTC's heavy volume fell back to around $9,800 and oscillated around the night. It hit a high volume in the evening, hitting a maximum of $10,325. From the four-hour K-line, BTC has returned to the upper edge of the triangle convergence interval, and the overall trend is downward. The market is close to the tail of the convergence adjustment. Recently, the main force may have a dishwashing action.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, BTC's net outflow of funds today was 25,102,769,000 yuan, a significant reversal from yesterday. Among them, the net inflow of oversized single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 666,576,700 yuan, the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 7,514,157 yuan, and the net is between 50,000 yuan and 30,000 yuan. Inflow of 89,284.90 yuan, a small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 23,624.65 yuan. The market is dominated by large orders and medium orders.

2. Fundamentals

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Yesterday, the average calculation power of BTC's entire network was 94.08EH/s, which was slightly lower than the previous day (95.52EH/s), close to the historical high point. The long-term upward trend has not changed; the number of active addresses on the chain is 704,800, compared with the previous day ( 8.592 million) decreased, close to a one-month average; the number of currency days destroyed was 4.385 million (historically smaller), which was significantly lower than the previous day (145.836 million), and the long-term uptrend was not destroyed.

Second, the spot ETH market

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Yesterday, ETH started to move up after hitting a low of $202. It rose upwards later in the day and hit a maximum of $224. The relative price of ETH's BTC hits a maximum of 0. 0222 BTC, and then it has a downward trend. It is now down to 0. 0213 BTC near the shock, short-term performance is strong.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, ETH's net inflow of funds today was 671.1135 million yuan, an increase from yesterday. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow is 85.135 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow is 64.403 million yuan, and the medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The inflow of 2,941,632 yuan, the small inflow (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 39,768,500 yuan. The market is mostly small and medium-sized.

2. Fundamentals

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Observing DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp has decreased, adding 3 DApps. Among them, the game application My Crypto Heroes's 24-hour active users 1.9k, 24-hour change -11.44%; financial application MakerDAO 24-hour active users 1.6k, 24-hour change -21.08%; trading application IDEX 24-hour active users The number 406, 24 hours change -7.09%.

Third, the spot LTC market

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Yesterday, LTC's heavy volume hit a low of 72 US dollars, after a rebound, but the highest hit after 77 US dollars fell back. The LTC/BTC trading pair is slightly weaker and is currently returning to the previous day at around 0.0074BTC.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, the net inflow of LTC funds today was 698.563 million yuan, which was reversed from yesterday. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow is 4,396.70 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow is 2,194.45 yuan, and the medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net outflow 8507.87 million yuan, a small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 34.04 million yuan. There are differences in the market, and most of them are reduced by the single order.

2. Fundamentals

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Yesterday, the average net computing power of LTC was 322.52TH/s, which was slightly higher than yesterday (309.06TH/s), higher than the one-month average. After the halving of the block reward on August 05, the computing power has declined. This may be related to the withdrawal of some miners or the elimination of equipment, which will take some time to recover. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the LTC chain was 127,400, which was close to a one-month high; the number of coins destroyed (177.17 million, historically small) increased from the previous day (134.703 million), but the long-term trend was not destroyed.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

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EOS yesterday's heavy volume dropped to a minimum of 3.8 US dollars, after a weak rebound, and now oscillated around 3.91 US dollars, has not effectively broken below the support. The EOS/BTC trading pair continued to fall, and it is currently oscillating around 0.00038 BTC, showing short-term weakness.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, EOS's net capital inflow today was 44.686 million yuan, a slight decrease from yesterday. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 3,691,500 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 25,394,200 yuan, in the middle (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The inflow of 48.834 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 24,739,900 yuan. There are differences in the market, and most of them are built in the middle.

2. Fundamentals

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According to DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp has decreased, and the number of new Dapps has been 1. Among them, the game's PROSPECTORS 24-hour user number is 2.6k, which is -6.77% compared with yesterday; the number of 24-hour active users who use Dice is 1.2k, which is -73.08% compared with yesterday; the data application Lumeos's 24-hour active users is 1.5k. Compared with yesterday's change -0.47%; trading application Newdex's 24-hour active users 1.3k, compared with yesterday's change -9.86%.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is improving. At present, the high probability is in the stage of partial adjustment. The mad cow market is likely to arrive in the next one to two years. The relative price of the BTC of the intelligent contract platform leader ETH, the cottage coin LTC, and the DPoS leader EOS is close to the low of the year, and can be configured on a dip.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

In the near term, the market is expected to step out of the upward trend.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

Short-term wait and see.

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VI. Appendix – Index Interpretation

1. Babbitt Composite Index

The Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) consists of the largest and most representative Tokens in the global market for existing blockchains to reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain Token market.

2.Alternative sentiment index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects the emotional changes in the market, with 0 meaning “extreme fear” and 100 meaning “extreme greed”. The indicators include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), trend (10%).

3.USDT Off-exchange Discount Index

The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. An index of 100 indicates USDT parity, an index greater than 100 indicates a USDT premium, and a value less than 100 indicates a USDT discount.

4. Google search trends

This refers to Google web search data results, the relative value of the search in the specified time and region: the hottest record of 100, the heat accounted for the highest half of 50, there is not enough data of 0. Note: The higher the score in a country, the higher the percentage of search terms in all local search terms, and does not mean the absolute number of searches.

5. Net inflow of funds (out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds from the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow of funds and the outflow of funds on the global exchange (not including false transactions), positive values ​​indicate net inflows of funds, while negative values ​​indicate net outflows of funds. Among them, the turnover is calculated as the inflow of funds when the rise, and the turnover is calculated as the outflow when the decline occurs.

6. Coin-day destruction

Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days of Bitcoin holdings. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. BTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 100 million is the maximum value; 50 to 100 million is the larger value; 10 to 50 million is the median; less than or equal to 10 million is the smaller value. LTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 500 million is the maximum value; 100 million to 500 million is the larger value; 50 to 100 million is the median; less than or equal to 50 million is the smaller value.

7. Number of active addresses on the chain

The number of active addresses on the chain refers to the number of addresses in the chain address of the block chain. Usually, this indicator can reflect the activity level of a chain of a public chain, and the demand activities under the chain such as secondary market transactions and wallet use will have a greater impact on it.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.