Jia Nan, Zhi Zhi Kong Jianping: It is only a matter of time before bitcoin breaks through 100,000 US dollars. The limit of computing power in 2020 is doubled.

On the 22nd, the coin-printing pool held the 2019 New Era Mining Summit in Chengdu. Kong Jianping, chairman of Jianan Yuzhi, was invited to participate in the opening.

He told a joke that three people from A, B, and C were pushed upstairs to the upper floor and asked how they came up. The three had their own opinions, but no one said that the elevator took them upstairs. Therefore, he said that the accumulation of wealth is the same, it is entirely derived from the opportunity given by the time of the economic cycle, relying on the general trend.

"Every new order changes will bring huge opportunities, and the biggest opportunity before us is digital currency."

"There have been many people around me who have been involved in Bitcoin for a long time, but he wants to make more Bitcoin, so he turned to a lot of projects and finally did not win Bitcoin. The biggest obstacle for Bitcoin to break through $100,000 is Time , but everyone can't stand it. Many people think that bitcoin has to fall to 7,000 dollars. What is the relationship? If you think it can reach 100,000 US dollars. Keeping money is more difficult. "

Jianan Zhizhi is located in Hangzhou. In January 2013, the team delivered the first Bitcoin ASIC mining machine to the world, Avalon. At that time, this ASIC mining machine can produce 357 bitcoins a day, claiming to be Printing machine. In the past few years, Jia Nan Zhi Zhi and Bit Continental have occupied the second and first market respectively. In 2018, the industry suffered from a cold winter, both of which were sold to Hong Kong stocks. In 2019, the industry environment improved, and both of them broke out and went public in the US.

In 2015, Kong Jianping not only invested in Jianan Zhizhi, but also participated in the company management, increased the company's shares, and became the partner and co-chairman of Jianan Zhizhi and Jianan Technology.

On September 22, Babbitt and the media in the circle talked to Kong Jianping in Chengdu. As a senior investor and mining machine manufacturer, Kong Jianping revealed his judgment on the growth of bitcoin computing power in 2020, and shared why the mining capacity could not keep up. The story of demand.

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▲ Kong Jianping to share in the New Age Mining Conference

The following is the content of the conversation, organized by Babbitt.

Question 1, should the mainstream mining machine chip be 7nm?

We feel that it has nothing to do with the chip technology. In the end, we still look at the power consumption, computing power and price of the chip. These three indicators determine the price/performance ratio of this mining machine . The miners said that 7nm is easy to use. In fact, the 7nm problem last year was that the yield was particularly low and the cost was extremely high. Even if you can achieve low power consumption, the cost will not meet the market demand. The core is still cost-effective, and the cycle is faster.

We continue to research and develop 7nm chips. In 2018, we have mass produced the world's first 7nm chip for use in mining machines. The mass production of the later iterative version will be marketed next year.

Question 2: The calculation power is rising, and the bitcoin is halved. What effect will it have?

The miners still return to this cycle. If you can make a big calculation and low-power mining machine, the miners will still buy it.

At present, most of the mining machines are old machines with power consumption of up to 100 watts. The halving of bitcoin production affects these old machines, not new ones. Assuming the price of the currency rises, these old machines can also be dug, such as our A7 series.

Electricity is a transparent distribution pattern in the world. If the electricity cost is 3-4 gross during the dry season, the mine will be eliminated if it does not benefit from this cost. However, some local electricity costs are only 1 or 2 hair, and those mines are still in those areas. Can dig.

Question 3. How do you see the value of Bitcoin and other digital currencies?

How is gold and silver formed? The value of gold is too large to be divided, and silver is used as a smaller unit to divide. In the digital world, it does not need silver, and one is enough. What is the anchor of the digital world in the future? Bitcoin is enough.

When Bitcoin rises to 100,000 US dollars and 1 million US dollars, it can't do anything. It may be like gold. It is a tool for settlement of various state agencies and consortia, not a tool for daily settlement. Digital currency such as RMB, libra and Grin is fine.

In addition, digital currency has another function. For example, Ethereum is a public chain at the application level, and there is still a chance before it can change PoS. What happens after I change it? Whether the ecology is moving to a new chain or staying on the old chain is not easy to judge.

Question 4: How do you see the ups and downs of mining capacity and the imbalance of the digital currency market? How to solve?

This is a problem at two levels.

At the mining machine capacity level, the chip design process cycle and cost determine the unlimited mass production, and large-scale production means resisting huge risks.

Supply chain volume, technology, and currency price determine how the computing power grows. In the early 18th year, the monthly computing power can be doubled, but the base of computing power is growing, and the chip supply chain capacity is limited. At the end of this year, as the time node, next year, the price of coins will rise, and the limit of computing power can only double.

We have measured that TSMC and Samsung will not give the mining chip production much next year, so the amount of top-level technology that manufacturers can get is just that. Although the manufacturer has some reserves, if the price of the currency grows too much, the large reserves are not enough. The price of the currency grows fast, and the gains from the calculations will increase. The mining revenue will be very high. When the price of the currency falls, the income will definitely fall.

The amount of digital currency is already very large, but it is not to say that you will give you more than the price of the currency. Chip makers will rank one amount each year, for example, 10%-15% for digital currency. There will be such a calculation and framework.

You may ask why TSMC does not increase production lines and production. In fact, the cost of the production line is very large, and the digital currency is fluctuating. It will increase production for the development of the entire industry, but it may not necessarily be for a category. And to increase production, it is still necessary to consider the input and output as a whole.

Domestic SMIC is also very good, but its current production capacity is not large, its production capacity does not affect the pattern of the bitcoin industry. In the future, like the chip of Grin, some domestic memory chip manufacturers may also be able to do some production capacity, which is still not mature.

On the other hand, we are still doing AI chips in addition to the miner's chip. When the company's price drops, another business can support the company's business revenue. Many doors are fingerprint recognition, not face recognition, because the latter has to be powered, the power consumption is too large, and the battery can not meet the long-term power supply requirements of the chip. The characteristics of our AI chip are low power consumption and high computing performance. The use of techniques such as face recognition in the field of door locks can be realized.

Previous sales were not high. Because of the cycle, the algorithm model may take 6-12 months to be implanted on the chip, and then mass production equipment, the whole cycle is about 1-2 years. This year, we may have thousands to hundreds of millions of shipments, which is also very leading in the field of AI chips.

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Question 5, what is the market share of mining machine manufacturers?

Bitcoin has the largest share in the field of bitcoin, which is the competition of chip manufacturers in the comprehensive capabilities of chip design, supply chain and production cycle. Jianan is currently hoping to become the industry's number one in 2020.

In the field of bitcoin, the opportunities for new miners' participants are embarrassing. Time is money. Even if you can design, your products need to be verified, but other homes are already in mass production, not to mention your design capabilities.

(Supplement: Why are many foreign manufacturers not getting up?) In addition to the above reasons, it must be said that the Chinese are very diligent. Foreigners don't say that technology is strong, but they hold a lot of patents. If you enter, they infringe on its patents. But AI is not the same as the blockchain field. I think the Chinese have the opportunity to lead the world here.

Question 6: Can the mining machine be used for other calculations?

I call it Block Chain Hybrid Computing (POP), blockchain and AI are mixed together, this calculation is not necessary for Bitcoin, Bitcoin does one thing. But in the future there will be other coins to complete, such as a world computer in the future. (Note: Although Ethereum is called the world computer, this is actually not true because it solves the problem of calculation)

Today's home computers are idle, and the computing power of these computers can be contributed, so that distributed computing truly links the blockchain and AI hybrid computing. When these computers are mobilized to complete the calculation process, it will have a working proof of PoW, so that when calculating the power, they can also get the calculated income, such as Token. It is the same as sharing the charging treasure, but this sharing power is basically different from the current various projects.

At present, we see that everyone's technical route is different, and the underlying layer can't be fully integrated, but just like the type-c interface, the world computer and various mainstream protocols will merge with each other.

I believe that the agreement and the bottom layer of the world's computers will definitely appear in the next 2-5 years . We also see that there are indeed many teams working on projects that use blockchain computing power in the AI ​​field, and may now take some detours.

We will also do more low-level and chip design for such underlying protocols. It may even invite some people to develop such an agreement, which we believe is very meaningful to everyone's life in the future.

Question 7, how is Jianan's listing?

It is clear that there is no plan for a successful board in the short term.

Aside from the topic of our company's listing, the SEC is very aware of the digital currency and blockchain. It is listed in the US. For all companies, it is necessary to comply with its rules. As long as the compliant companies are listed in the US, it is possible. Sexual. Others I am not convenient to disclose more.