QKL123 market analysis | Bitcoin continues to drop, will fall below $ 9,000? (0924)

Abstract: Short-term bitcoin fell below 10,000 US dollars and continued to decline. The decline in the altcoin currency was large, and the market risk aversion increased. Judging from the historical performance of Bitcoin, Bitcoin is currently in a new round of bullish adjustment, and it is less likely to fall below the $9000 (or 200-day moving average).

1

According to QKL123 statistics, at 13 o'clock on September 24, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 185.153 billion yuan, the total market value of 24-hour increased or decreased by -2.34%, the total turnover was 417.476 billion yuan, and the total turnover changed by +13.64%. Market activity has increased. The Babbitt Composite Index reported 13303.94 points, up 24 hours to -2.94%; the Alternative sentiment index was 39, slightly lower than yesterday (41), and the market sentiment was still fear.

Among the top ten encrypted assets in the market capitalization (excluding USDT), LTC had the largest decline in 24 hours (-6.56%), and XRP had the smallest 24-hour decline (-0.14%). BTC rose by -1.68% in 24 hours, and the market value (67.10%) rebounded slightly from yesterday. The market risk aversion continued to increase. USDT's 24-hour ups and downs were +0.56%. Today's net inflow of funds was 19,022.31 million, a slight decrease from yesterday. ChaiNext USDT's off-market discount premium index was 99.83, with a 24-hour up/down of +0.55%.

In the past day, Bitcoin's Google search relative value (peak 99) has increased from yesterday (peak 93), approaching the highest in seven days. The top seven countries in the heat are Nigeria (100), Ghana (50), South Africa (40), Brazil (39), the Netherlands (39), Austria (38) and Switzerland (38). Over the past week, global Ethereum's Google search relative value (peak 54) was flat compared to yesterday (peak 54), approaching a seven-day low.

Analyst's point of view:

2

According to Woobulla data, Bitcoin's 14-day volatility (red line) is approaching the low of the year, and when the market is deadlocked, it will usher in a big change. Judging from the historical performance of the bitcoin price (yellow line), at this stage, it is in the adjustment stage of a new round of bull market. Recently, there is the possibility of testing the strong support of 9,000 US dollars (excluding the short-term washing action), and if it effectively falls below 9,000 US dollars, The $7,500 is strong support, but $7,500 is below the 200-day moving average (dashed line) of the “Bear-Bear Demarcation Line”, so the probability of a real break is small.

First, the spot BTC market

3

BTC continued to explore, the short-term BTC Yan triangle convergence interval continued to move down, the lowest touched $9,600 this morning, the direction is getting closer.

Fund face

4

As of 14:00, BTC's net outflow of funds today was 1,358,776,600 yuan, a slight increase from yesterday. Among them, the over-single (more than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow is 209.9046 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow is 285.26 million yuan, and the medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net Outflow of 55,601.30 yuan, small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 30,703.40 yuan. The market is mostly net outflows.

2. Fundamentals

5

Yesterday, the average calculation power of BTC's entire network was 84.46EH/s, which was significantly lower than the previous day (95.41EH/s), but it was close to the historical high point. The long-term upward trend has not changed; the number of active addresses on the chain is 690,100, compared with the previous day ( 573,800) has increased, approaching the median of one month; the number of currency days destroyed is 5.964 million (historically smaller) than the previous day (149.93 million), but the long-term uptrend has not been destroyed.

Second, the spot ETH market

6

Today ETH continues to explore, in the short-term heavy volume of 206 US dollars, is currently testing the support level, a short-term risk of falling. Yesterday, ETH's BTC relative price hit a maximum of 0. 0211BTC and then went down. Currently it is 0. 0203BTC, short-term performance is weak.

Fund face

7

As of 14:00, ETH's net outflow of funds today was 31,613,900 yuan, which was reversed from yesterday. Among them, the overflow of large single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net flow of 45.537 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 115.5796 million yuan, between the single (between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow of 247.70 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 1.779 million yuan. There are differences in the market, with large net and medium single outflows.

2. Fundamentals

8

Observing DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp has decreased, adding 8 DApps. Among them, the financial application MakerDAO's 24-hour active users 1.9k, 24-hour change -2.65%; game application My Crypto Heroes 24-hour active users 1.6k, 24-hour change -22.17%; trading application IDEX 24-hour active users The number is 332, 24 hours change +21.17%.

Third, the spot LTC market

9

LTC's heavy volume hit a low of $61 in the early hours of this morning. At the same time, the LTC/BTC traded against the heavy volume, with a minimum of 0.00640BTC, with significant volume, and the Air Force was temporarily suppressed.

Fund face

10

As of 14:00, the net outflow of LTC funds today was 4,808,400 yuan, which was reversed from yesterday. Among them, the net inflow of oversized single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 77.705 million yuan, the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 6743.38 yuan, and the net outflow of medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) 602.909 million yuan, a small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 869.56 million yuan. There are big differences in the market, and most of them are reduced by small orders.

2. Fundamentals

11

Yesterday, the average computing power of LTC's entire network was 313.12TH/s, which was slightly lower than yesterday (325.75TH/s), higher than the one-month average. After the halving of the block reward on August 05, the computing power has declined. This may be related to the withdrawal of some miners or the elimination of equipment, which will take some time to recover. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the LTC chain was 100,000, which was close to the one-month average; the number of coins destroyed (123.635 million, historically small) was significantly lower than the previous day (279.20 million), and the long-term trend was not destroyed.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

12

In the early morning of this morning, EOS's heavy volume dropped, and the lowest touched 3.6 US dollars. The EOS/BTC transaction continued to fluctuate around 0.00038 BTC, and short-term linkage was mainly based on Bitcoin.

Fund face

13

As of 14:00, EOS's net outflow of funds today was 19,154,470 yuan, which was reversed yesterday. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow is 2,442,200 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow is 10,059,900 yuan, and the medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net Outflow of 75.195 million yuan, small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 103.910 million yuan. The market is dominated by small orders.

2. Fundamentals

14

According to DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp increased slightly, and the number of new Dapps was 1. Among them, the number of 24-hour active users who applied Dice was 4.1k, which was +5.53% compared with yesterday; the number of 24-hour users of game PROSPECTORS was 2.6k, which was +2.18% compared with yesterday; the number of 24-hour active users of data application Lumeos was 1.5k. Compared with yesterday's change of +1.02%; the number of 24-hour active users trading Newdex is 1.3k, which is +1.68% compared with yesterday.

According to reports, the upgrade of EOS v1.8 was completed in the evening yesterday. This major update not only fixes the issue of deferred transactions, enhances security and prepares for the launch of the Voice application project, but also optimizes the EOS cost mechanism, allowing the project to undertake Network resource costs further reduce user usage thresholds.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is improving. At present, the high probability is in the stage of partial adjustment. The mad cow market is likely to arrive in the next one to two years. The relative price of the BTC of the intelligent contract platform leader ETH, the cottage coin LTC, and the DPoS leader EOS is close to the low of the year, and can be configured on a dip.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

In the near term, the market is expected to step out of the upward trend.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

In a short period of time, there may be a rebound, but the small position can be high and low, and fast forward and fast.

15

VI. Appendix – Index Interpretation

1. Babbitt Composite Index

The Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) consists of the largest and most representative Tokens in the global market for existing blockchains to reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain Token market.

2.Alternative sentiment index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects the emotional changes in the market, with 0 meaning “extreme fear” and 100 meaning “extreme greed”. The indicators include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), trend (10%).

3.USDT Off-exchange Discount Index

The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. An index of 100 indicates USDT parity, an index greater than 100 indicates a USDT premium, and a value less than 100 indicates a USDT discount.

4. Google search trends

This refers to Google web search data results, the relative value of the search in the specified time and region: the hottest record of 100, the heat accounted for the highest half of 50, there is not enough data of 0. Note: The higher the score in a country, the higher the percentage of search terms in all local search terms, and does not mean the absolute number of searches.

5. Net inflow of funds (out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds from the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow of funds and the outflow of funds on the global exchange (not including false transactions), positive values ​​indicate net inflows of funds, while negative values ​​indicate net outflows of funds. Among them, the turnover is calculated as the inflow of funds when the rise, and the turnover is calculated as the outflow when the decline occurs.

6. Coin-day destruction

Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days of Bitcoin holdings. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. BTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 100 million is the maximum value; 50 to 100 million is the larger value; 10 to 50 million is the median; less than or equal to 10 million is the smaller value. LTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 500 million is the maximum value; 100 million to 500 million is the larger value; 50 to 100 million is the median; less than or equal to 50 million is the smaller value.

7. Number of active addresses on the chain

The number of active addresses on the chain refers to the number of addresses in the chain address of the block chain. Usually, this indicator can reflect the activity level of a chain of a public chain, and the demand activities under the chain such as secondary market transactions and wallet use will have a greater impact on it.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.