Winter all night! Why did the crash occur? How is the market interpreted?

At around 2:00 am Beijing time today, Bitcoin suddenly plunged, and the price plunged nearly 2,000 US dollars in just over an hour. The lowest hit in the session hit the 7700 integer, which was the lowest since June 10 this year.

In the 4-hour level chart, Bitcoin’s 4-hour K-line, which fell in the early hours of the morning, ended up with a decline of 13.67%. This 4-hour drop has hit a new high in the past year and a half. It dates back to mid-December 2017, the time period before and after Bitcoin hit a record high of $20,000. Even after a wave of bull markets pushed the price up to $14,000 in the first half of this year, the market did not show such an amazing short-term plunge.

Affected by this wave of diving, the Bitmex exchange has nearly 700 million US dollars in a single burst in the past 6 hours. The time of the explosion occurred mainly at the beginning of the market start-up diving, including 2:50 am Beijing time this morning. In 2:55, in just 5 minutes, more than 145 million US dollars worth of singles were flattened.

This morning, the topic of "bitcoin plunging" has been on the microblogging hot search list. As of the time of publication, it is temporarily ranked 13th in the hot search list.

Affected by the bitcoin diving, the mainstream currency also experienced a collapse in the early morning, and the price of most of the top 20 currencies fell by more than 15% overnight. The EOS, BCH and BSV led the decline. The currency is still in a stage of over 20% decline in the case of a sharp rebound correction.

So the question is coming, what has the market experienced?

First, Bakkt bitcoin futures went cold on the line, the market expected to fall into disappointment

The Bakkt bitcoin futures, which attracted much attention from the market, was officially launched on Monday. However, the first futures product delivered with bitcoin did not attract a large amount of new funds as scheduled. Instead, it entered the winter on the first day of the launch. in. According to the previous report, Bakkt Bitcoin futures only sold 28 bitcoins in the first 10 hours after the launch. The first day turnover was even less than one percent of the first day of CME bitcoin futures. The market is for this so-called The "potential good" is disappointing.

At that time, Shallot had analyzed and pointed out that from the relatively low participation in the market on the first day of the launch, it was similar to “bringing new funds and flows to the cryptocurrency market” and “providing more stable and safe participation of cryptocurrencies for institutional investors. The investment channel is so good that it has become a piece of empty talk. This kind of participation is difficult to get rid of in the market, and the previous negative expectations for this potential good will eventually have a "negative impact."

In addition, after the end of 2017, CBOE and CME two bitcoin futures have been put on the line, the precedent for the rapid topping of bitcoin prices is there, and the prospect of bitcoin prices after the official launch of Bakkt bitcoin futures is further eroded.

Second, OKEx and CME two contract trading platform quarterly contract is about to expire

On Thursday, the OKEx Exchange Bitcoin quarterly contract will usher in another delivery date, while the CME contract will expire on Friday. Judging from the historical performance of the market, bitcoin prices tend to fall sharply before and after the contract expires, and Shallot has also warned about this risk yesterday.

The delivery date for OKEx's last quarterly contract was June 27th, and this day happened to be the date when the Mavericks officially ended in the first half of this year. In addition, since May of this year, every time the CME bitcoin futures contract expires, bitcoin prices tend to have obvious correction corrections. Therefore, these two potential negatives followed in the second half of this week, which undoubtedly put the market under pressure.

Third, the US SEC began to evaluate the Wilshire Phoenix Bitcoin ETF into a "scratch" behavior

A document released on Tuesday local time showed that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has begun to evaluate proposed rule changes to determine whether to allow the New York Stock Exchange Arca to list and trade Wilshire Phoenix's Bitcoin ETF. The ETF will allow investors to access both Bitcoin and US Treasury bonds. From now on, the SEC will need to make a decision within 35 days. According to another public document.

Although this move seems to be a good thing on the surface, the SEC has been hesitant to evaluate the Bitcoin ETF, so the market's expectations for the successful passage of the Bitcoin ETF of Wilshire Phoenix are very limited. Last week, VanEck/SolidX just took the initiative to withdraw the Bitcoin ETF application from the SEC. Therefore, this news has caused the pessimistic concentration of the Bitcoin ETF to be frustrated, which has led to a passive negative impact.

Fourth, Bitmex's high multiple leverage and huge contract bursts have become short "helpers"

As the data listed at the beginning of the text shows that the huge amount of short-selling positions that occurred shortly after the bitcoin price began to fall in the Bitmex exchange caused the market to intensify the market panic, which led to the continuous decline of the market, which led to the early morning wave. Even for Bitcoin, which has always been known for its high volatility, it is quite rare to step on the market. The reason why such a concentrated level of tension occurs at the beginning of price fluctuations is not unrelated to the Bitxex contract transaction offering 100 times leverage.

5. Perhaps, the plunge is related to the US House of Representatives impeaching Trump?

There is also a more interesting speculation in the market that the bitcoin plunge is related to the US House Democrats’ claim to impeach President Trump. At 5 am Beijing time, Pelosi announced the opening of impeachment and accused Trump of abusing his powers. He currently supports the impeachment of the Democratic Party to 174 people (435 in the House of Representatives and 235 in the Democratic Party). Political analysts believe that this will be a replica of the Clinton impeachment case, that is, the House of Representatives passed the impeachment and the Senate rejected it. In the process of Clinton's impeachment in 1998, the risk assets represented by the US stock market experienced a sharp dip, and the logic of the decline of Bitcoin may be similar.

What do market analysts think about this?

After this wave of diving market came out, although there were some singers, the market is obviously not as pessimistic as imagined. For this round of sudden corrections, there is an analysis that it is possible that the market will give the last Car opportunity."

Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital and a gold loyal supporter, said that Bitcoin has finally fallen below the support line of a huge downward triangle formed over the past few months. This is a very pessimistic technical form that confirms that a major top has been established. There is a huge risk that will quickly fall to $4,000 or even less than $4,000.

Ronnie Moas, a stock and crypto analyst, said that Coinbase Pro's trading volume is eight times that of Saturday, with a total of 32,000 bitcoins. I bet this is the top 1%… US institutional investors use panic buying (bitcoin), just like when the stock market crashed 10 years ago.

Today, Jiang Zhuoer replied on Weibo that "(this is the last fall or the first fall)" is that the last round of the bull market started in October 2015, this round is 6 months to April. Up, halved for too long, so the big probability of the middle can not hold down a wave, this is the last chance to get on the bus before the bull market. In addition, Jiang Zhuoer also said that 7000 ~ 8000 buying should be very strong, difficult to be penetrated, because there are many people who are in that position, including my previous 8000 sets to protect a wave, fortunately out of the hedge Money bought the machine, otherwise it would be a big loss.

Market analyst CryptoWelson said in a tweet released this morning that the $7,500-8,500 range would be an ideal place to buy Bitcoin.