72,000 bitcoin bursts, who is the culprit?

1 " Late in the night "

In the early morning of September 25th, Beijing time, Bitcoin began a new round of waterfalls. At OKEx, the lowest touch reached $7,660, with the highest drop of 18.94%. After hitting $7,660, Bitcoin rebounded to $8,500, an increase of 10.96%, and then began to fluctuate. Bitcoin fell more than 9% in a single day.

This is the first time Bitcoin has fallen below $8,000 since June 2019.

According to alternative.me, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index on the 24th was 39, no abnormalities, and the index did not fluctuate significantly in the last month.

Cryptographic currency fear and greed index

Within 24 hours, the bitcoin on BitMEX broke the amount of $395 million. According to the coin coin statistics, the whole network broke 920 million USDT, of which about 6.34 million bitcoin contracts broke out, worth 72,000 bitcoins, about 600 million US dollars.

The USDT/RMB OTC price rose to a maximum of 7.35 and a premium of 3.42%, indicating that the capital inflow was greater than the flight, and there was a fund-raising inflow from the market.

At the same time, Bitcoin has once again slammed into Sina Weibo.

Weibo hot search

2"   Fuse : Bakkt is cold "

The biggest flash of the plunge was that Bakkt was less than expected, and the biggest benefit became a bad one.

In the article of Shenzhen Chain Finance yesterday, "I want to rely on Bakkt fraud, I really want to be disappointed" explains why Bakkt is so valued and its industry status.

Bakkt's first day fell short of expectations, causing Bitcoin to fall 3.43% on the 23rd to reach $9,400.

Technically, Bitcoin is now in the midst of a triangle change and fell below the important support 120-day line on September 21. This is also the first time that Bitcoin has fallen below the 120-day line since March 21, 2019.

OKEx Investment Analysis Director K Ye told Deep Chain Finance that the decline of this round of BTC has been bred for a long time. Bitcoin prices have been oscillating around the large consolidation area, and the volatility has become narrower and narrower, forming a convergent triangle. The choice of direction is also It is imminent.

The final price failed to hold the 9880 (OKEx quarterly contract price), forming a decline.

"Although the decline is within expectations, but the decline is so rapid and deep, it is indeed beyond expectations." K Ye said.

The cold weather of Bakkt added a fire to the market, causing Bitcoin to fall below the triangle support.

Bitcoin price trend

Some investors believe that the turnover of Bakkt is cold, Bitcoin only fell by 3.43%, and the price support in the lower part of the triangle, so increase the position. However, at 2 am on the 25th Beijing time, the bears began to increase their positions and penetrated the bulls, causing a second decline.

Bitcoin contract long and short comparison

The emergence of Bakkt ended the bitcoin shock, accelerating the timing of Bitcoin's selection.

In addition to Bakkt, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) decided to begin evaluating the proposed rule changes to determine whether to allow the launch of the Wilshire Phoenix Bitcoin ETF. The SEC will make a decision within 35 days.

The SEC has always been conservative on the Bitcoin ETF, so this made the market pessimistic about the incident.

3 " Misunderstanding: The power is plummeting "

Before the plunge, several data companies and experts said that Bitcoin's computing power plummeted, making the Bitcoin network seem insecure. Emin Gün Sirer, a computer professor at Cornell University and a well-known cryptocurrency expert, said this.

This erroneous expression has brought great panic to the market, and investors have raised questions about whether there is a problem with the Bitcoin network and whether the miners will sell Bitcoin in large quantities.

However, in fact, Bitcoin's computing power is reversed according to the speed of the block. When the block is slower, the counter-introduction is reduced. The calculation data in a short period of time is difficult to reflect the real power of the entire network.

Most data companies did not explain the situation, which caused a lot of investors to misunderstand.

Zhu Xi, the co-founder of the world's most prestigious mining pool, also recommended that you refer to the full-line computing power of the week instead of one day.

4 "   Culprit: Futures contract? "

On Friday (September 27th), the Bitcoin quarter contract for OKEx and Firecoin will be delivered, and the CME contract will expire on Friday.

Historically, bitcoin prices have fallen sharply before and after the contract expires. Bitcoin plunged 14% the day before the previous quarterly contract delivery (June 28, 2019).

This plunge, because the long-short ratio is unreasonable, the long-term ratio is much higher than the short position, so a large number of short positions have led to further decline.

Bitcoin price trend on multiple exchanges

By comparing the bitcoin prices of Coinbase and Bitfinex, there is no significant difference between the two, but when they join the exchanges OKEx and Firecoin, which exist in the Bitcoin futures contract, they find that the latter two have obvious oversold behavior.

At the same time, on BitMEX, the unreasonable long-short ratio also returned to normal after the plunge.

BitMEX long-short ratio

Therefore, in the eyes of many people, this round of slump is more caused by futures contracts.

However, in this regard, some people think that it is not appropriate to classify futures contracts as the culprit.

Kye believes that this round of plunging is mainly due to the market's disappointment with Bakkt, especially large and institutional investors. Bakkt's partners and its traditional financial background have given the market a very high expectation.

Investors generally believe that Bakkt will once again open the funds of the traditional investment institutions "safety box", but the actual results have made investors stunned.

As of September 25, Bakkt had a total of 215 BTCs in three days, only one of the 16,000 points of the 24-hour volume of the OKEx quarterly contract and one of the 620 points of the 24-hour volume of the OKEx perpetual contract.

A large number of traditional institutions did not enter through Bakkt. Without the expected addition of new funds, investors formed negative sentiment about the future market and caused a sell-off.

"The expiration of the contract can only be an expedited event. If it is due to the expiration of the contract, the stamping of one contract will form a relative rebuilding position of another contract, and the market will not be so fierce." The impact of the contract delivery date is explained in this way.

Regarding the future trend, K Ye said that from the news point of view, there is no long-term negative event. The recent decline is a lot of disappointment and the release of active short-selling power. As the short-selling power is gradually released, the market will be revised again, creating a new balance zone and nurturing new markets again.

“The foreseeable downside will not be too large, and the support under Bitcoin is between the OKEx Bitcoin quarterly contract offer of 6858-7469 (does not constitute investment advice).”

Author: Shu out

This article is the original deep chain Deepchain (ID: deepchainvip). Unauthorized reproduction is prohibited.