Research: Bitcoin may have a 75% chance of falling in the 40 hours prior to the settlement of the CME Bitcoin futures contract

Recently, research firm Arcane Research studied the 40-hour bitcoin return rate of the 20-month bitcoin futures contract on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Research shows that bitcoin prices fell an average of 2.27% before CME futures settlement. Moreover, in the 20 months since January 2018, the return rate of Bitcoin for 15 months is negative, that is, Bitcoin has a 75% chance of falling before the settlement of futures, and the month with the most price drop exceeds 6%. . There is a view that the CME contract seems to be related to bitcoin manipulation, but Arcane Research believes that further analysis is needed.