Bitcoin position analysis: the collapse of the market, the characteristics of various accounts are obvious

On September 28th, CFTC announced the latest issue of CME Bitcoin Futures Weekly (September 18th – September 24th). This statistical interval just covered the first half of this week's plunge, and the statistical results are very good. It reflects the efficiency of emergency response of various accounts after the extreme market. The results of the position report in this period will largely reflect the specific “transaction habits” of various accounts in the futures market, and this will become a very important report for future reading positions. Effective reference.

The change in the total number of positions (total open positions) is basically negligible. The latest data from 4174 has risen slightly from 4174 to 4178. The absolute value of the change in one week has refreshed the nearly two months that was just created in the previous report. New low. From a macro point of view, after this extreme market situation, the futures market did not appear to be concentrated in fleeing. After all, when the fast market appeared, it was the best node for speculators to compete for admission. This allowed the market to enter a market. In the state of dynamic balance.

According to the sub-item data, the situation of large-scale brokers has changed suddenly. The number of long positions has dropped from 262 to 42. The number of long positions has reached a new low since March 26 this year. The short positions have also dropped significantly from 201 to 100. Zhang, but the net amount of such accounts that have been maintained for two months has been reversed, and the proportion of empty shares has hit a new high since April 2 this year, that is, for such accounts, the current Positions have returned to above the level of bitcoin prices of just $3,000 at the beginning of this year. It can be seen that the economy of the brokers' positions after the sudden drop of this week has a very high efficiency. The first time to significantly reduce the position is a very rational stop-loss risk control behavior.

In terms of leveraged funds, the long-short position ratio of the current data also showed an inclination to the empty side. The long position decreased slightly from 1688 to 1651, and the short position increased sharply from 2254 to 2510. The net position of such accounts has been maintained since the beginning of the year, but the proportion of empty orders has hit a new high since April 9 this year. Although the leveraged fund has a limited number of short positions after the plunge, the large increase in the position of the open position indicates that such accounts have also made a “homeopathic” response, compared to the broker’s “wind control first” The leveraged fund's substantial increase in short-selling orders is an operation that pursues greater profits when the market is in a big market. This visually shows the logical difference in the transactions between the two bulky accounts.

In terms of large positions, the changes in such accounts are interesting. The number of long positions has dropped from 521 to 488, and the short positions have dropped from 1093 to 687. Judging from the proportion of positions, although it is still in the state of clearance, but the proportion of the empty side has dropped sharply, and the main treatment of such accounts after the price dip is the take-off of the profit-taking empty sheet, appearing After the extreme market, long and short two-way synchronous reduction, showing that such accounts are more cautious about trading.

The performance of retail investors in this period's data is still relatively "emotional", multi-position positions rose from 1,453 to 1,628, while empty positions rose from 357 to 534. After the extreme market situation, the two-way positions increased sharply, indicating that the speculative sentiment of retail investors is easily shaken by the large fluctuations in prices, while the two-way increase in both long and short positions shows that retail investors still lack judgment on the market direction, so the retail position is Although the data is closest to market sentiment to a certain extent, its accuracy is the worst compared to other types of accounts.

Bitfinex Exchange Bitcoin Position

Bitfinex Bitcoin contract long and short position data is updated by the exchange in real time, so compared with the weekly CFTC position report, the Bitfinex exchange position data can better reflect the immediate market retail market long-term emotional changes.

The change in the position of the bitcoin contract in the Bitfinex exchange is similar to the change in the “large position” in the CFTC position report. Last week, although the long position of the exchange's bitcoin contract had a certain reduction, the reduction was much smaller than the short position change. It can be seen that the contract investors in the exchange also took advantage of profit-taking and risk control reduction after the extreme market, and did not flood into the market after the unilateral market appeared, so the contract investors in the Bitfinex exchange were generally calm. . However, as previously analyzed, due to the two extreme values ​​of the long position of the exchange contract in the middle of July, the current reference value of the long-short ratio data is limited, and the guiding value that can be provided is not high.

OKEx Exchange Bitcoin Position

Official data from OKEx showed that there was a very obvious synchronous change in the long-short position ratio after the first wave of diving this week. The number of long and short positions fell sharply from around 1.90 to around 1.00, and remained at around 1.00. That is, the strong bullish preference of the investors of the OKEx exchange has been reversed after the price has plummeted. At present, the situation of both the long and short sides is basically the same, which has improved the reference value of the indicator in the future. For this indicator, the next step back to 1.5 or further down to below 0.8 will be the key to judging market sentiment.

Source: Shallot