In-depth analysis of FairWin: the money disk of the knife-edge blood loss makes the average loss of 10129 players 47%

Introduction: The motivation of most users to participate in the fund disk / Ponzi Dapp is speculative to make money, and most of these products are also greedy for humanity in the promotion, to enlarge the space and possibility of income to attract funds to enter. In fact, after the recent first crash of FairWin, which was famous for the consumption of Gas, DappReview made a deep excavation of the data and found that it was really cruel than the imagination. The biggest winner is the FairWin trader. This article will analyze the income situation and distribution of the first round of FairWin players, and take a 62-fold player as an example to explore how to increase the probability of profit.

Since the beginning of September, an unknown contract has attracted the attention of ETH ecosystem developers and communities. The daily consumption of the contract is increasing at an alarming rate. The daily consumption of Gas gradually accounts for 30-40% of the entire ETH network. The highest peak in a single day exceeds 500 ETH, ranking the top of the Gas consumption list for nearly one month. As of October 1, the accumulated Gas consumption amounted to a total of 8691 ETH, valued at more than 10 million RMB.

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The true face of the contract gradually emerged from the water, and it is also a favorite fund game game – FairWin. From the Powh3D at the beginning of last year and a series of imitations, to the Fomo3D in the middle of the year, to the current FairWin, the decentralized funding Dapp has never withdrawn from the historical stage, but every once in a while, it floats in a new posture. Out of the water, a wave of ripples. The purpose of the user pouring into the plate is nothing more than four words: speculation, making money.

So, does FairWin really make users earn money?

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The first round of FairWin began on June 18th. At the end of July, a new contract was replaced due to the risk of contractual vulnerability. Eventually, it collapsed on the evening of September 30th of UTC (the morning of October 1, Beijing time), and the contract balance was zero. .

DappReview counts all the data in the old and new contracts. FairWin has a total of more than 690,000 ETHs in the first round. A total of 19,208 addresses participated in this round of games, including:

8316 address returns are positive, the average rate of return is 12.94%, 10129 addresses are negative, and the average rate of return is -47.59%. 763 addresses are not lost, not earning, just recovering the principal.

As a zero-sum game, the final player has only two types of players, winners and losers.

Winner: 8316 addresses book return 69,234 ETH, average 8.32 ETH per address. Loser: 10129 addresses book loss 97019 ETH, average loss of 9.57 ETH per address

Is the book number not correct? Oh, there is another type of player – the dealer. They are hiding behind the scenes, taking 4% of the handling fee for each "investment", with a total income of 27,785 ETHs (about 34 million yuan). All of this money went into the official FairWin account:

0x854d359a586244c9e02b57a37c70a4dc21ffcaa8d

This is the "real big winner" behind FairWin.

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Let's take a look at the income of ordinary users. In the above picture, only three of the top ten income rankings have a yield of more than 300%, and they have earned more than 700 ETHs. This is a "king". The winner of the level. In addition, there are 2 addresses with a yield of more than 300%, but the ETH is not high on the list.

Note: The rate of return here = (the total amount of income ETH in this address / the total amount of ETH invested in this address) – 1 , due to the 5-day principal thawing rule, the rate of return calculation does not fully reflect the real situation, in subsequent cases There will be additional explanations in the analysis, so the yield is only for reference, and the ETH income amount is more representative.

Overall, a total of 76 address yields exceeded 100%, which means that less than 1% of the 8316 winners doubled and earned more. Looking at the ETH revenue, a total of 96 addresses earned more than 100 ETH, and about 1.1% of users received a very substantial ETH benefit.

What is the benefit of most other people?

From the perspective of percentage yield:

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After eliminating the winners of the 76 kings, we can see that the majority of winners (profit users) have yields within the range of 1-20%. The loss ratio of loss-making users is either the range of -50% to 0%, or the range of -90% to the total loss.

From the perspective of ETH benefits:

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Excluding 96 players with a revenue greater than 100 ETH, the majority of profitable players have a yield range of [0, 8] ETH, with more than 3,768 users within 2 ETH, accounting for 45% of all winners. The loss of the major loss of the user is between [-16, -8] ETH.

In summary, if you participate in FairWin, 40% chance to enter the ranks of 8316 winners, no surprise, your final return is a high probability of 0 – 8 ETH. However, you still have a probability of more than 55% to enter the army of lossy leeks. As a leeks, this knife is not to take your lumps out. There is less than 5% probability that you just become a passerby, tossing for a long time, did not make money, but burned a lot of Gas Fee.

Then the problem is coming –

How can there be a greater chance of becoming a part of the 8316 winners?

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The above picture reflects the final revenue status of new users every day after the first round of crash. It is not difficult to see that most of the new users who entered the market before September are profitable, and since September, The later the entry into the market, the greater the proportion of loss-making users, the new users who entered the market after September 26 were basically wiped out.

The reason is very simple, come early, no loss

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The above chart reflects the distribution of the final rate of return for new users every day. Most of the users who entered the market in June and July were positive returns, and they were generally high (200%+ the winners of the revenues were mostly users at this time). Since mid-August, there have been more and more users with negative returns, and the range of negative returns has dropped significantly.

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From the perspective of the final ETH revenue, the winners who earned excess returns (300+ETH) were already in the market before August.

The reason is very simple, come early, earn more

The trigger point for each round of FairWin is that the contract balance is zero. Under the mechanism of the game, once the amount of funds outflow begins to be greater than the amount of capital inflow, then it is not far from the crash. In the first round of the game, the amount of capital inflows per week before mid-September was greater than the amount of funds flowing out, which also caused the balance in the contract to climb continuously, with 49,000 ETH at the highest point.

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It is necessary to know that as the process accelerates, more capital inflows will be needed in the future to support the profitability of all players in the previous period. From September 27, the four-day capital outflow is greater than the capital inflow, and the difference is getting bigger and bigger, only 4 days. Time, the difference between the capital in and out of the contract will be exhausted in the contract for nearly 100 days.

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It can be seen that until the last few days, loyal players have been practicing re-investment, even though the contract balance has been falling off the cliff, there are still some old players (more than 4 times in the re-investment) to invest on the eve of the last day of the crash.

Returning to the theme, continue to explore the possibility of increasing the profitability in FairWin. We took the second place in the previous income list and earned 872 ETH 0xb8b54e81 as a case to study and learn. Below we refer to it as B brother, first look at the investment record of B brother account:

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B's case is a good example of how to make money in the fund game:

Early entry, the first investment on June 26, is the earliest users

Using the game mechanics, B brother took out the principal every five days for a re-investment.

From the first day of investment, B brother also started the road of evangelism (CX). There are always recommended users of B brother to come in to replenish the money. The recommended users of B brother invested a total of 1211 ETH. In the above, we mentioned that the calculation of the rate of return does not reflect the real situation. B is a typical example. If the logic is calculated according to the above rate of return: (total income ETH quantity / total input ETH quantity) – 1

B brother's total investment, which is the red histogram in the above picture, the total 256 ETH, the total income is the green histogram above, accumulating 1128.52 ETH, you can calculate the 340% yield of B brother.

But in fact, we can see that B brother invested a total of 14 ETHs before June 26 and June 27, after five days of thawing, B brother only continued to re-invest with thawing funds, this time a total of 15 ETH , reached the upper limit of VIP3. From then on, the principal 15ETH was taken out every 5 days and immediately re-invested.

That is to say, although B's cumulative investment amount is 265 ETH, it actually only takes up the initial 14 ETH principal. B's real rate of return is actually earning 872ETH's income with 14 ETH, which is 62 times the rate of return!

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We put the experience of the B brother case on the 19,208 user data points to verify. Basically, the three factors of the first investment date, the number of re-investment, and the recommended investment have certain correlation with the final income.

to sum up

Focus on the beginning of the question: How to have a greater chance of becoming a part of the 8316 winners?

Early arrival

Get back the reinvestment of the principal (also pay attention to the contract balance trend)

Send your own referral links everywhere But tossing so much, being a person like B is really rare. FairWin's first round of endings can be described as tragic. The average loss of more than 10,000 addresses is 47%. Among the winners, ordinary users are only earning hundreds to thousands of dollars, but they bear the risk of being cut off. The profits of the big head, only FairWIn's traders are squandering money behind the scenes, and a few veterans such as B brothers make money with the skill and execution as breathing.

For this kind of game, DappReview uses this in-depth data analysis to let everyone see its true risk and actual income distribution. If you just want to participate in a plate to earn excess income, you will only become a number of above. One of the small red dots in the chart. We advise all currency players to invest cautiously, stay away from such funds, and don't smash blood.

If you are a long-term ETH holder and want to earn more ETH at a lower risk, instead of participating in a high-risk fund, it is better to go to the currency to see ETH's annual 6% coin Anbao (every half a month to participate, lying Making money and meditation):

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Or other DeFi lending platforms (with relatively low ETH rates) and a trusted centralization platform.

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After the first round of FairWin, the second round of games was launched three days later. Even in the first round of tragic endings, in less than two days, 351 users invested 4296 ETHs, including:

There are 206 addresses that are users who participated in the first round of games, 148 addresses are profitable users in the first round, and 58 are loss users.

Other imitations such as ETH Magician opened on September 28, and attracted 2,541 user investments in a week. Of these, 304 users came from FairWin, 261 of which were profitable in the first round of FairWin and 43 losses.

Greed does not die, the funds will never sleep.