QKL123 market analysis|October "Autumn event", or market volatility (1008)

Abstract: At present, Bitcoin has received strong support and rebounded. The altcoin performance is strong, but it has not broken through the recent highs, and it will continue to fluctuate within a short period of time. There are a number of events worthy of attention in October that may have a big impact on Bitcoin and the entire market.

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According to QKL123 statistics, at 13:00 on October 08, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 1,619.909 billion yuan, the total market value of 24 hours increased or decreased by +4.48%, the total turnover was 452.05 billion yuan, and the total turnover changed by +31.28%. Market activity has increased significantly. Among the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), EOS has the largest increase in 24 hours (+6.29%), and BSV has the smallest increase in 24 hours (+2.22%). The Babbitt Composite Index reported 11563.02 points, up 24 hours to +5.03%, reflecting the rapid rise of the main force.

The Bitcoin Strength Index was reported at 91.26 points, with a 24-hour rise and fall of -0.79%. The risk aversion sentiment was slightly eased; the Alternative sentiment index was 39, a slight increase from yesterday (27), and the market sentiment was fear. The USDT rose to -0.61% for 24 hours. Today's net inflow of funds was 104.772 million yuan, which was lower than yesterday. The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Discount and Premium Index was 99.73, which was up to -0.29% in 24 hours.

In the past day, global Bitcoin's Google search relative value (peak 91) has increased from the previous value (peak 83), but is still close to a one-month low. The top seven countries in the heat are Nigeria (100), Ghana (52), Brazil (45), South Africa (43), Switzerland (41), Cyprus (40) and Austria (39). In the past day, the global Ethereum's Google search relative value (peak 36) has fallen back from the previous value (peak 32), approaching a one-month low.

Analyst's point of view:

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The Bitcoin Google trend in Cyprus is "famous" and is likely to be related to Bitcoin's safe-haven properties. Among the related query words, the first increase in search volume is btcturk (Turkey's crypto-equity exchange), and the most popular area in the area belongs to the Northern Cyprus regime. According to Xinhuanet, the recent "conflict escalation" between Cyprus and Turkey: On the 4th, the Cyprus government identified Turkey's "serious escalation" violation of Cyprus's sovereignty. The reason was that the Turkish side dispatched an oil and gas drilling vessel to its southern waters the day before.

In the middle and late October, the political and economic events in the country that are worthy of attention are:

First, the trade war between Europe and America is progressing. According to reports, the WTO allows the United States to impose tariffs on nearly 7.5 billion EU products. This is the largest final decision in the history of the WTO. The US will start implementation on the 18th, and there will be not many time to reach a settlement, but the European and American negotiators have not announced any meeting plan. At the same time, the European Commission President Juncker pointed out that if the United States imposes tariffs on EU goods, the EU will "return its teeth", and the trade war between Europe and the United States will be triggered.

Second, the British Brexit incident. On the 02nd, the UK officially submitted a new “Brexit” plan to the EU. British Prime Minister Johnson said that the new plan represents a compromise of the United Kingdom, which will be the "last chance" of the agreement. If the EU does not accept this plan, the UK will have no agreement to "Brexit" at the end of the month, and this is likely to bring many political and economic risks to the UK.

If the above risk events escalate, it is expected to benefit Bitcoin, and vice versa. In addition, important events directly related to Bitcoin are:

First, the trial of the USDT, and this may bring the black swan event. The USDT hearing, which was postponed for three months at the end of July, will be held at the end of the month. Recently, lawyers who sued Ownen Cong filed a class action lawsuit against Bitfinex and Tether. According to reports, the class action lawsuit claimed that the company created a bubble in the cryptocurrency market by issuing unsecured US dollar tokens.

Second, Wilshire Phoenix and Bitwise's Bitcoin ETF proposal will be "finally" decided. However, VanEck and SolidX have not waited until the mid-October deadline to cancel the joint launch of the Bitcoin ETF. Some insiders pointed out that the launch of the Bitcoin ETF may be similar to the launch of Bakkt, which requires a process of slow acceptance by the market, even if it is launched, it may not be as expected.

First, the spot BTC market

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At 8 o'clock in the morning yesterday, BTC again tested support, the lowest hit 7800 US dollars, did not fall below the previous low, and then quickly rebounded slightly, indicating that it received short-term strong support. However, after hitting a maximum of $8,300, it has fallen slightly. It has not yet broken through the high of $8,500 in recent days. It is mainly for a short period of time and has a short-term upswing.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, BTC's net capital inflow today was 71,106,200 yuan, a decrease from yesterday. Among them, the net inflow of super large single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 12,615,200 yuan, the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 47,77,000 yuan, and the net is between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan. The inflow of 406.923 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 13936.40 million. The market is mostly net inflows.

2. Fundamentals

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Yesterday, the average calculation power of BTC's entire network was 98.63EH/s, which was higher than the previous day (92.25EH/s), close to the historical high point. The long-term upward trend has not changed; the number of active addresses on the chain is 448,900, compared with the previous day ( 68.30 million) markedly declining, close to the low point of three months; the trading volume on the chain was 629,400, which was significantly higher than the previous day (45.84 million), close to the one-month average; the number of coins destroyed was 7,036,300 (historically smaller) Compared with the previous day (2.2257 million), the long-term upward trend has not been destroyed.

Second, the spot ETH market

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Yesterday morning, ETH dropped to a minimum of 168 US dollars and then increased slightly, but it currently hits a maximum of 185 US dollars, not breaking the short-term high of 186 US dollars. The relative price of ETH's BTC has risen, with the highest hit of 0.0223BTC, which is strong in short-term performance.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, ETH's net capital inflow today was 83,404,570 yuan, an increase from yesterday. Among them, the large inflow (more than or equal to 1 million yuan) net inflow of 22,804,800 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 65,158,900 yuan, the middle (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The inflow of 157.55 million yuan, the small inflow (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 588.51 million yuan. The market is dominated by net inflows of small orders.

2. Fundamentals

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Observing the DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp has increased, and two new DApps have been added. Game application My Crypto Heroes's 24-hour active users 3.1k, 24-hour change +6.17%; financial application MakerDAO 24-hour active users 1.6k, 24 hours change +30.76%; trading application ForkDelta 24-hour active users 369 , 24 hours change + 16.40%.

Third, the spot LTC market

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Recently, the LTC/BTC trading pair continued to rebound, and the highest rebound to 0.0071BTC at present, a short-term relative BTC slightly stronger.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, the net outflow of LTC funds today was 6,142,400 yuan, which was reversed from yesterday. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow is 1,527,900 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 133.69 yuan, the medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net outflow 43.7554 million yuan, a small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 37.48 million yuan. There is a big difference in the market, with a net outflow of medium singles.

2. Fundamentals

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Yesterday, the average net computing power of LTC was 270.50TH/s, which was lower than yesterday (286.94TH/s), which was close to the low of six months. After the halving of the block reward on August 05, the computing power has declined. This may be related to the withdrawal of some miners or the elimination of equipment, which will take some time to recover. However, if continuous innovation is low, there is a risk of stamping. The number of active addresses on the LTC chain (61,300) was slightly lower than the previous day, close to a one-month low; the trading volume on the LTC chain (209.28 million) fell slightly from the previous day, close to the low of the month; the number of coins destroyed (789.70) 10,000, the historical value is smaller, which is significantly lower than the previous day (1960.20 million), and the long-term trend has not been destroyed.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

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The EOS/BTC trading pair continues to rise and is currently oscillating around 0.000386 BTC, with a short-term performance.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, EOS's net inflow of funds today was 262.51 million yuan, which was reversed yesterday. Among them, the net inflow of super large single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 3.8886 million yuan, the net outflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 11.726 million yuan, and the net is between 10,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan. The inflow of 63,933,700 yuan, the small inflow (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 20,235,500 yuan. There are certain differences in the market, with a large net inflow of small orders.

2. Fundamentals

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According to DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp has increased, and the number of newly added Dapps is zero. The EOS Dynasty's 24-hour user number is 2.7k, which is +10.88% compared with yesterday. The number of 24-hour active users who use Dice is 1.5k, which is +9.46% compared with yesterday. The number of 24-hour active users who use Newdex is 1.5k. Yesterday's change +20.34%; data application Lumeos's 24-hour active users number 967k, compared with yesterday's change -6.21%.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is improving. At present, the high probability is in the stage of partial adjustment. The mad cow market is likely to arrive in the next one to two years. The relative price of the BTC of the intelligent contract platform leader ETH, the cottage coin LTC, and the DPoS leader EOS is close to the low of the year, and can be configured separately.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

At present, Bitcoin is near the 200-day moving average, and it is more likely to bottom up.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

High throwing and low sucking, breaking the stop loss.

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VI. Appendix – Index Interpretation

1. Babbitt Composite Index

The Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) consists of the largest and most representative Tokens in the global market for existing blockchains to reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain Token market.

2. Bitcoin strength index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the conversion of Bitcoin in the entire Token market, which in turn reflects the competitive strength of Bitcoin in the market and is used to measure the extent to which Bitcoin changes the relative price of a basket of Tokens. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger the bitcoin in the Token market.

3.Alternative sentiment index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects the emotional changes in the market, with 0 meaning “extreme fear” and 100 meaning “extreme greed”. The indicators include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), trend (10%). 4.USDT Off-exchange Discount Index

The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. An index of 100 indicates USDT parity, an index greater than 100 indicates a USDT premium, and a value less than 100 indicates a USDT discount.

5. Google search trend

This refers to Google web search data results, the relative value of the search in the specified time and region: the hottest record of 100, the heat accounted for the highest half of 50, there is not enough data of 0. Note: The higher the score in a country, the higher the percentage of search terms in all local search terms, and does not mean the absolute number of searches.

6. Net inflow of funds (out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds from the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow of funds and the outflow of funds on the global exchange (not including false transactions), positive values ​​indicate net inflows of funds, while negative values ​​indicate net outflows of funds. Among them, the turnover is calculated as the inflow of funds when the rise, and the turnover is calculated as the outflow when the decline occurs.

7. Currency Day Destruction

Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days of Bitcoin holdings. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. BTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 100 million is the maximum value; 50 to 100 million is the larger value; 10 to 50 million is the median; less than or equal to 10 million is the smaller value. LTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 500 million is the maximum value; 100 million to 500 million is the larger value; 50 to 100 million is the median; less than or equal to 50 million is the smaller value.

8. Number of active addresses on the chain

The number of active addresses on the chain refers to the number of addresses in the chain address of the block chain. Usually, this indicator can reflect the activity level of a chain of a public chain, and the demand activities under the chain such as secondary market transactions and wallet use will have a greater impact on it.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.