Beijing time yesterday (October 9th) evening, tensions in the Middle East suddenly changed, the global financial market risk aversion surged, traditional safe-haven assets have strengthened, overnight gold changed the previous rebound momentum quickly rebounded. Bitcoin finally broke the sideways volatility of the previous half-month, rising more than $400 in just an hour or so. Bitcoin once again played the role of safe-haven assets in the market when panic.
According to Xinhua News Agency, Turkish President Erdogan announced on the 9th that he will launch a military operation codenamed "Peace Fountain" in northern Syria. Images from the Turkish-Syrian border show that the Syrian Free Army, supported by the Turkish government, is gathering. After the emergency evacuation of the US military in Syria, the Turkish military operation was officially launched, and the air strikes against the military targets in Syria. At present, Kurdish armed forces have begun to seek emergency help from Russia, but the Russian side has not yet given a positive response.
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Shortly after the military action was taken by the Turkish side, the price of gold rebounded rapidly, and at night it rebounded from the highest point around the 1500 integer mark to above $1515. As shown in the figure below, Bitcoin still slightly lags in response, but the characteristics of strong volatility of Bitcoin have made up for this shortcoming. Bitcoin has followed up immediately after gold began to rebound. And in the first round of rapid rebound process, the gains made by the two rounds of Bitcoin rebound were directly completed.
At the same time, the two major safe-haven currencies, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc, also experienced rapid growth in the early morning hours. The night foreign exchange and precious metals markets showed a very classic “safe haven” posture, while Bitcoin was under this special time node. A breakthrough in the weak shocks of the past two weeks has been completed, or it will once again consolidate the market's recognition of its development as an emerging safe-haven asset.
It is worth noting that in the past, Bitcoin's own news point of view, in fact, the negative content is relatively more. In addition to Bakkt physical delivery bitcoin futures on the line after the cold and other series of bad news at the end of September, the market value of Bitcoin has continued to decline in the past period of time, has now dropped to about 66% from the year's high of 71%; The currency ETF dystocia was sung by the Wall Street Journal; and Libra’s “more and more narrow” roads seem to be constantly testing the bitcoin price, and after a wave of dips in the middle and late last month, market analysts The remarks that the market may fall further to 5,000 or even 3,000 US dollars have intensified the panic in the market. In the recent period of time, the trading volume of the spot and futures markets is quite sluggish, and the market dreams back to the beginning of this year, that is, after the bear market in 2018.
The bitcoin price can achieve rapid rebound and regain lost ground in this environment. Obviously it is not caused by the endogenous factors of the digital currency market. Therefore, the overnight market of Bitcoin can basically be regarded as an emergency response to sudden risk events. And this once again proves to us that the bitcoin of today has really embarked on the road of linkage with the traditional financial market.
In the relatively boring environment of the digital money market itself, the focus of attention in the traditional financial circle will become an important guiding factor for the direction of Bitcoin in the future.
In addition to the further fermentation of geopolitical issues in the Middle East, whether the Fed will usher in the third rate cut in the year in October this year is still the biggest focus of the market this month. At present, CME's FedWatch tool shows that the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.5%-1.75% in October, which is as high as 83.9%. Taking into account the recent poor performance of the US economic data, the Fed's high-level statement will cause high market attention in the future, and this will directly affect the trend of the US dollar and gold, and may also affect the Bitcoin market.
The latest developments in the Trump impeachment survey are also one of the short-term focus. At the end of last month, the time point at which Bitcoin’s plunge occurred was highly matched with the time when the media exposed that Trump might be impeached. The market once had a speculation that there was a direct causal relationship between the two. The US White House just said on Tuesday that it would refuse to cooperate with an "illegal and unconstitutional" impeachment investigation in Congress, which caused Republican President Trump to clashed with the Democratic-led House of Representatives. Therefore, the current situation is still continuing to ferment. Once the variables are regenerated, it is likely to hit the US stock market again, which will have an indirect impact on global stock markets and Bitcoin.
Finally, the latest developments in the global trade situation continue to affect market sentiment. Yesterday's wave of gold in the European session was just after the good news from the Sino-US trade negotiations, but the rumors were not confirmed, so the final impact was relatively limited. However, the sensitive performance of the gold and foreign exchange markets has proved to some extent that trade disputes are still very influential to the market. As the US team gradually expands its trade coercion outside the rest of the world, the scope of the problem continues to expand. If the problem continues to ferment endlessly, its potential impact on the financial market will probably exceed expectations.
Source: Shallot blockchain