September public chain observation: How to treat Bitcoin mining after the market?

Description

The public chain is an important part of the blockchain industry. There are 2,963 cryptocurrencies and 20,692 exchanges in the whole network. The market value of these cryptocurrencies is about 231.5 billion US dollars (the daily trading volume is 69.2 billion US dollars), of which the market value of bitcoin accounts for 66.8% (CoinMarketCap, 10.10). Among the cryptocurrencies that account for the remaining 30% of the market value, other public chain tokens account for a considerable proportion (see table below). This report aims to summarize the technical developments and application dynamics of monthly important public links to observe the development and future of cryptocurrency.

First, Dapp overview

Chain application (Dapp) is an important dimension to measure the ecological vitality of the public chain. At present, there are about 3,205 Dapps on the whole network. The number of daily active users is about 130,000, the daily transaction volume is about 23 million US dollars, and the number of relevant smart contracts is 14410 (Dapp.review, 10.10).

Among the many public chains, the development of three public chain Dapps such as EOS, Tron and ETH has received more attention. It can be seen that at present, the three transactions are similar, all in the range of 5 to 12 million US dollars; EOS daily active users and transaction volume lead, of which EOS daily active users is about 78,000, while Tron and ETH respectively At 40,000 and 15,000; EOS transactions are about 2.85 million, Tron and ETH are 1.26 million and 60,000 respectively; in Dapp, the three are all steadily increasing in September, of which ETH is far ahead. For 1986, EOS is close to Tron, about 600.

Second, hot focus: How to treat the bitcoin mining market in September?

(I) General: The computing power and difficulty continue to rise, and the price of the currency drops.

Mining power, difficulty increases, the price of coins declines, the income decreases, the "death fork" reappears, and the risk of "mine disaster" approaches. In September, the bitcoin computing power was 77Eh/s at the beginning of the month, and it continued the upward trend since the end of December 2018. On the 26th, it broke through the 100Eh/s “gate” for the first time, approaching 102Eh/s (25Eh/s from the beginning of the month) ), fell back to 95Eh/s (Bitinfocharts) on October 2. Along with this, the difficulty of bitcoin mining has also increased, from 10.8T in early September to 12.8T in early October. However, bitcoin prices fell from $10,575 at the beginning of the month to $8,365 at the end of the month. From December 2018 to July 2019, the price of the currency and the calculation of the power of eight months have been reversed. The difficulty of mining and the decline in the price of the coins have reduced the mining revenue, which has lengthened the return period of the mining machine. It was the sight of January-December 2018. Considering that the dry season is coming in November, the low price of electricity in the flood season is unsustainable, and the cost of mining is rising. If this “death fork” trend continues, the mining industry will reproduce the situation that some of the miners will reach the shutdown price at the end of 2018.

(II) Industry competition pattern: Shenma Cheng "black horse" , Jia Nan Zhizhi will be listed

Shenma Mining has sold 100,000 M20S/M21S. Yang Zuxing, the founder of Shenma Mining Machinery Co., said at the 2019 New Era Mining Summit held on the 22nd that the Shenma mining machine sold less in March, gradually increased in April and May, and orders in July increased sharply. Only futures, after the order is more stable, has delivered 100,000 units of M20S/M21S (M20S, M21S computing power is 68TH/S, 56TH/S, which is about 12.4Eh/s computing power), on the market at the end of September. The total number of M20S/M21S is about 200,000. According to our calculations, if these mining machines are turned on, the power of the Shenma mining machine on the market will be at least 24.8Eh/s, and at the end of September, the calculation power of the bitcoin net is about 95Eh/s, that is, the Shenma mining machine counts The proportion of the total network computing power of Bitcoin is at least 26%.

Yang Zuoxing holds a Ph.D. degree in Engineering Nuclear Physics from Tsinghua University. In 2014, he joined the mining machine team led by Xiaoqiang Mining Machinery and Roasted Cat. In 2014, he developed S7 and S9 mining machine chips for Bitland (S9 once became bitcoin mining). The mainstream model), founded Bit Micro in 2016, researched and developed Shenma mining machine, released five bitcoin mining machines in May 2019 (including the popular M20 series, which is popular later), and the chip manufacturing process is Samsung OEM. The 8nm, a sudden emergence, changed the competitive landscape of the bitcoin mining machine market dominated by Bitian and Jianan.

Jia Nan Zhi Zhi will be listed, or help its solid industry position. According to media reports such as 36氪, Jianan Zhizhi will go public in the US in mid-November, intending to issue new shares of 126 million, with a valuation of 2 billion to 3 billion US dollars; recently, Avalon launched a new generation bitcoin mining machine A11 The series, of which A1166 and A1146 are one of the most single-bit bitcoin mining machines on the market. It is understood that the A10 and A11 intention orders are close to 500,000 units, and it is expected that the total number will exceed 1.5 million units in 2020. The successful listing of Jianan Zhizhi will help it to finance from the traditional capital market, which will help the mining industry to further comply with regulations, or will help it stabilize its position in the industry.

(3) Release and delivery of new products by the manufacturer: Bitland will issue new products, and Shenma will postpone delivery to compensate customers.

Bitland has released new products. In September, Bitcoin released two new mining machines: S17e and T17e. The former has a standard computing power of 64 TH/S, an energy efficiency ratio of 45J/T, and a price of 20,928 yuan (or 327 yuan/T, September 11). The price of the 19-point sale), the latter's standard calculation power is 53TH/S, the energy efficiency ratio is 55J/T, the price is 12455 yuan (ie 235 yuan / T, September 11th, 19:00 sale price), they will Three batches were officially launched at 9:00 on September 9, 10, and 11 in Beijing time, corresponding to November 1st – 10th, 11th – 20th, and 21st – 30th.

Bitcoin provides partial compensation coupons. Bitcoin provides compensation coupons for S17, S17pro, T17 products that were delayed in August and part of S17 products for September shipments. The former is based on the theoretical calculation of the product purchased and the difficulty of the entire network. Mine PPS theoretical income, deduct 2.5% handling fee and electricity fee (0.4 yuan / kWh), calculate the compensation amount; the latter can choose the same amount, equal computing power, equal purchase of T17.

Jianan Zhizhi will mass-produce 7-nanometer chip mining machine next year. Kong Jianping, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Jia Nan, said, "We continue to research and develop 7nm chips. In 2018, we have mass produced the world's first 7nm chip for use in mining machines. The mass production of the iterative version will be marketed next year. According to our understanding, Jia Nan Zhizhi released the 7-nm chip mining machine A920P and A921 in August 2018. The computing powers are 19TH/S and 20TH/S respectively, and the wall power consumption is 1710W/H and 2040W respectively. /H.

Shenma Mining Machinery issued a statement on the extension of delivery. On September 17, Shenma Mining announced the “Declaration on Delayed Delivery of Mining Machines”, claiming that due to factors such as the wafer foundry (Guosheng Blockchain Note: Samsung) delaying the delivery of wafers for 2-3 weeks, Shenma Mine The machine delivery schedule lags behind the contract commitment time and will be communicated and compensated for the time of delivery from the official channel and the delivery time in August and September.

(4) Pre-judgment

On September 22nd, the coin-printing pool held the 2019 New Era Mining Summit in Chengdu. At the meeting, many mining people shared their judgments on the mining market.

1. Coin price: 2021 to 110,000 USD, and finally 1 million USD?

According to Yang Zuoxing, according to the charging model (the voltage gradually increases to a steady state as the charging time increases), the bitcoin price will reach a maximum of $110,000 in 2021 and will eventually reach $1 million, based on his belief that bitcoin Similar to gold, so the bitcoin price can be obtained by dividing the price of gold by the amount of bitcoin; Wang Yang, the promoter of the one-person-one-currency (BTC) consensus community, believes that bitcoin prices will definitely exceed $20,000 after halving; Wang Haizhou proposed that the price of bitcoin is between 1.5 and 20,000 US dollars. In 2021, after half a year of halving, there will be a big market; Zhang Li, the co-founder of Wolf God Mining Machinery, believes that in the field of bitcoin trading, technology is Pseudo-proposition, the price of bitcoin depends on the incremental funds; Chen Lei, the founding partner of the Blue Whale Blockchain, proposes that bitcoin has a callback space, and the callback is more in line with the interests of the giants; Li Peicai, CEO of Diyi Technology, has proposed that Bitcoin is currently overdrawn. After halving expectations, the price of bitcoin may be around $10,000 in May next year.

2. Calculation power: 120E at the end of the year?

According to the production capacity of Shenma Mine, Yang Zuoxing predicts that the calculation power will rise to 120EH/S in 2019; the founder of Zhijian Xinyun Yu Wei believes that if the price of Bitcoin rises, the calculation power can be more than 120E, but if the difficulty rises, the price will fall. At present, the old generation of mining machine power is at 60E, bitcoin price will affect whether these mining machines can continue to dig; the founder of the power 360, Zhang Wei, believes that the supply of minerals is in short supply, and the market demand is still 1.5 million units. Not satisfied.

In addition, since July, Bitcoin has scheduled 30,000 wafers in the third and fourth quarters to the foundry TSMC, and has added 20,000 additional wafers. The additional orders also include 16nm wafers. According to our understanding, it is known that the second-generation 7-nanometer chip mining machine S17 and S17 Pro contain about 144 chips, and a 12-inch 7-nanometer wafer can cut about 3,000 ASIC chips. The wafers are mainly used to manufacture the 7-nano mining machine S17 Pro (56T). At the end of the year, Bitumin can produce about 1.04 million mining machines. It is assumed that the mining machines will be officially launched, sold out and used for mining in early 2020. The total network computing power will increase by 58.24EH/S.

Kong Jianping, chairman of Jianan Yuzhi, predicted that the supply chain volume, technology and currency price will determine how the computing power will increase. In the beginning of 2018, the monthly computing power can be doubled, but the base of computing power is growing. The chip supply chain has limited capacity; at the end of 2019, as the time node, in 2010, the price of the currency will rise again, and the growth limit of the computing power can only double.

3. Mining machine performance: The service period will be extended to four or five years?

Yang Zuoxing predicts that the era of power consumption of the new mining machine will be reduced by half. In the future, the power consumption reduction rate of each generation of mining machines can only reach 10%-20%. The mining machine will not be eliminated in the same months as before, and the future mining machine service time will be extended to 4.5 years. Therefore, low-power mining machines will become more and more popular, and it is estimated that mobile container mining machines will account for about half of the market in the next 3-5 years. The water-cooled and liquid-cooled mining machine will become the mainstream in about 5 years, which will probably account for 80%. The computing power board will become the main product form of the mining machine manufacturer, and the calculation power will become the main sales mode directly in the mine switching.

4. Mine: more fine and professional

Yu Wei believes that the higher the performance of the mining machine, the lower the sensitivity to electricity, but the higher the stability of power, environment, operation and maintenance and safety requirements. Future mine construction is like real estate and needs to be refined. A machine like the S17Pro, which lasts two days in a month, is equivalent to an increase in the cost of electricity by a dime. I think high-performance machines must have higher requirements for power and mine environmental stability.

5. Supervision: not illegal, not prohibited

Chen Lei, founder of the Blue Whale Blockchain, believes that “there are many regulatory actions that began in the summer of 2018. The regulation is indeed tightening and clear. This is the process of supervising learning. The most important thing is the local governments, which have diverse management tools. Such as safety production, taxation, industry and commerce, municipal administration, firefighting, etc., but as of last month, there is no regulatory document that illegal mining is illegal, and it must be banned. Even if there are regulatory incidents everywhere, every place must be discussed once and for all occasions. High sexuality. The national unified policy high pressure risk is not too high."

6. Other: How to define a new era of mining?

The co-founder of the coin-printing pool, Zhu Xi, believes that the mining circle has experienced three eras, namely the CPU/GPU/FPGA mining machine era from 2009 to 2012; the 2013-2015 is the ASIC era, when the computing power increased rapidly; 2016 In -2018, the S9 mining machine was the era. The 16nm chip was staged, and the single machine power was 13.5T. Today, the mining industry is about to enter a new era. The new standard of the new era mining machine is power consumption of 45-80W/T. In the field of 7nm, 10nm, 16nm, the computing power of 2200-2500 watts will be 30-50T, and the equipment of 3000-3500 watts will be calculated at 50-70T.

He predicted that the new environment of the new era is that the market has more capacity, more users, more discerning and more professional users, more practitioners and higher levels; the new pattern of the new era is to monopolize, institutional entry, mining The rise of the surrounding ecology (such as law and finance), the miners continue to differentiate.

Third, other news

BTC: Bakkt officially launches bitcoin futures trading for custody and physical settlement

Bakkt officially launched the hosting service Bakkt Warehouse on September 6 and launched a physical settlement of Bitcoin (BTC) futures trading on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) on September 23. On the 28th, The Block released an analysis article saying that, assuming that the weekly price of Bitcoin is $8,700, the value of the Bitcoin contract traded by Bakkt in the first week is about $1.5 million (165 contracts), which is about the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE). ) The bitcoin futures launched on December 10, 2017 will be 2.9% of the total position value of the first week.

Microcomputer technology: Grin mining machine will be shipped in October, it is expected that the total network computing power of Grin will increase significantly

The mining machine company Zhejiang Microcomputer Technology recently announced that the core components and IP of its Grin Asic mining chip have been successfully produced, and the first batch of Grin mining machines will be delivered in October as planned. Zhejiang Microcomputer Technology expects that the G1 PLUS mining machine has already received three times the current order of mining machines with full network computing power. At the end of October, the computing power of Grin will increase significantly. According to public information, Microcomputer Technology was jointly founded by Kong Jianping, Chairman of Jianan Yuzhi, and Sun Qifeng, founding partner of Bisheng Capital.

Wuhan Core G32 Grin mining machine will be postponed until January delivery

Wuhan mining machine manufacturer INNOSILICON said that the first batch of G32 GRIN miners are scheduled to be delivered in January 2020, which is about 4 months behind the expected August shipment.

Tencent leads the blockchain startup Everledger

Everledger, a UK-based blockchain supply chain startup, completed a $20 million Series A round of financing, led by Tencent, Bloomberg Beta, Lotte, Fidelity and other investment institutions.

Alibaba participates in blockchain startup Bitmark

Blockchain property rights startup Bitmark announced the completion of a $3 million Series A financing, led by consumer electronics giant HTC, including e-commerce giant Alibaba and cryptocurrency investment companies Digital Currency Group and WI Harper. The Bitmark Digital Equity System assigns unique ownership to different types of digital assets and has previously established a partnership with the University of California at Berkeley.

Japanese social media giant Line released virtual currency LINK white paper version 2.0

The LINK white paper was first released in September 2018. The latest version of this release has undergone four revisions. The new white paper adds content on the ecosystem expansion strategy and will work in the order of LINE network, alliance network, and open network. The main tasks include: connecting LINK to Line service; publishing LINK wallet; and promoting Dapps Development Association "LINK Dapp Ecology" System"; expand the number of companies participating in the LINK ecosystem through Dapps. In addition, in terms of technology, the new version of the content pays more attention to scalability, and the sharding and side chain flexibility is explained. The new white paper also introduces the results of the work so far, such as the use of LINK to release 3 Dapp and so on.

Korean social media giant Kakao token KLAY completes Dutch auction

Klaytn, the blockchain platform of Korean communications giant Kakao, announced in a blog that it will officially launch its token KLAY on Upbit (Singapore) and Upbit (Indonesia) at the end of September. According to the Odaily Planet Daily, Kakao subsidiary Ground X is developing a Klip wallet that will support KLAY, and Klip will also be enabled on KakaoTalk. In addition, Kakao may consider launching KLAY on the Chinese and Korean exchanges, but according to an anonymous Korean official, the South Korean government may prevent it from going online in its home country.

Later, in a Dutch auction conducted by Upbit (Singapore), Klay ended the auction at a price of 0.00001499 BTC (about 182 won) in less than a minute. Ground X sold 2.5 million Klays in this auction, with a personal participation limit of 50,000 Klay. Previously, Kakao decided to issue a total of 10 billion Klays, and the private discount for institutional investors was $0.03 (about 35 won). Therefore, the relevant companies predict that the auction price may be around 150 won (considering that in most cases institutional investors can buy at less than 1/5 of the online price). Unexpectedly, Klay ended the auction for more than 180 won.

Source: Guosheng Blockchain