On October 14th, Dragonfly Capital蜻蜓 organized a meeting in Beijing. The heat of a photo from the scene overshadowed the meeting itself, because in this photo, there are not only Sequoia Capital, Shen Nanpeng, and Ether. Fang Shentong V God, there is a topic person who has never appeared in the currency conference – the US group Wang Xing.
In the "ATM" posture, the US group squeezed out Baidu in "BAT" and entered the top three Internet giants, successfully succeeding. After the giants have allegedly placed heavy blockchains, the new giants have finally begun to "touch the chain."
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What kind of new gameplay will be born in the catering industry + local life service field controlled by the US group? As the industry giant's beauty group, what kind of "touch chain" path choices will be faced? What are the dangers and opportunities that will be encountered?
Blockchain technology transformation
The first route, the blockchain technology transformation.
Well-known source, certificate, data validation, supply chain finance, blockchain invoices, etc. These areas are low-risk and technology-intensive, seemingly suitable for giants to develop, and as a result, many giants have chosen here for blockchain. try.
In 2018, it was a "big year" for a large number of blockchain technology service providers to sign contracts. All leading enterprises and local governments have paid real money for "blockchain transformation", but what is the actual effect?
The top squad of the pass is said that these players who are making technological changes in the blockchain are also "cutting the leeks", but the object they cut is their party. In 2019, they showed a year of scythe, because no matter how many cool and cool technical concepts you use, the end result is that there is no egg to use, and the money thrown by Party A is not as good as throwing it in the river.
It doesn't matter whether you agree with this big man's point of view. Anyway, the giants have money, and they have played inside the family. It is the freedom of others, and you can't control it.
This route belongs to the US group, which looks like a beautiful type. There is no such thing as an egg. The money is more than a wave, pretending to be a blockchain, and burning some money can not be managed.
Pass-through reform of stock points
The second route, the pass-through transformation of stock points.
If the first route is too far from commercialization, then the route is close to the money and is almost within easy reach. There are two important directions for the inventory credit transformation: platform points and merchant points.
1. Platform integration transformation.
Meituan has the world's largest catering ordering platform, and also has the largest platform loyalty library. The accumulated points of these stocks are originally the assets generated by the promotion. If they can be assetized and certified, they will also be active to the platform users. Great help. Don't say anything else, if you receive a message saying that your points in the US group can be chained and transferred, you can turn into real money, I believe many users will be awakened from sleep.
However, this road has a wall, which is a clear regulation of the operation of the points: it is forbidden to leave the software system, prohibit the two-way exchange with the RMB, and prohibit the transfer of users who hold the points. The logic is very simple. If you can get Tencent Q coins and Ali points to leave Tencent and Ali, you can exchange them in both directions and you can transfer each other. Doesn't that mean that you have issued a private currency again, where is the RMB?
Small businesses are still likely to hit the edge ball, but is it possible for the US group to make a big break in this obstacle? That depends on the strength of Wang Xing. This route is helpful to the US group, but it seems that it is risky to kill the head to do a promotion, the income is not proportional to the risk, not worthwhile.
2. Business points transformation.
The biggest difficulty in this matter is the word "chaos."
The first is business chaos. The catering industry is notoriously known as the Ghost Gate. The average monthly closure rate of 90% and the annual compound closure rate of 110% are continuous data for many years. 90% of the profits are earned by 10% of the merchants, resulting in 90% of the businesses are not closed, or on the way to bankruptcy. First of all, the high rate of bankruptcy has caused 90% of the businesses in this industry to have no conversion value. Just like you have just set up a 2000 value-added card at the fast food restaurant at the gate of the community, and then the store closes the next day, what should I do?
Followed by software chaos. China's catering industry is notoriously fragmented, so so is the software company that serves catering companies. According to incomplete statistics, the total number of catering software service providers across the country is more than 3,000, and the largest software companies account for no more than 7%, and each software is different, different technologies, different databases, different distribution standards, API The interfaces are all different.
3. The pricing standard is chaotic.
Different merchants have different pricing for their own points. Some stipulate that 100 can be exchanged for one meal vouchers, and some stipulate that 50 can be exchanged for one bottle of beer, each of which is priced and accepted, and the price of the accepted commodity is not fair. The stock points that lead to different businesses are also messy.
Such a broken and chaotic industry points system is difficult to transform into the sky. Many points exchange companies have played the catering industry's idea, but apart from some particularly large chains, the entire industry has never seen a large area of successful players. .
For the US group, compared with the previous one, this field is more like wearing a dress and trampling mud, investing a lot, returning small, but also having to bear the risk of group events brought about by the collapse of the business, which is a game of unrewarding.
Ethereum and Coin Route
The third route, take the same route as Ethereum and Coin.
I want to end this line with a sentence: Wang Xing does not dare, because the legal risk is too big, the giant will not touch this field. Although the whole industry has a lot of perfect circumvention schemes in the legal affairs, the giants have a big wind, and if the problem is too small, it will not be able to make a decision.
For this reason, players like "food Continental EAT" will choose this place, because only the area where the giant tentacles are difficult to reach in a short time, the seemingly dangerous place is actually the safest. And a catering version of Ethereum or a catering version of Nasdaq has plenty of imagination in the vertical. Take the EAT of the mainland as an example. Its main brand of restaurant chain is the certification of “brand equity”, which will transform the “brand IP” stock assets so that they can transfer value and enable ordinary users to share their favorite brand assets. This area is also a unique initiative.
For the US Mission, its current market value of 400 billion Hong Kong dollars, almost equal to the total number of 1 / 5 digital currency market, to enter this field with such a huge amount of volume, not only to bear legal risks, but also some are not worth the candle.
Do the United States version of Libra
The fourth route, cut the payment, do the Libra version of the US group.
Wang Xing started with C2C and put the US version of COPY to CHINA. Only he did the best. Today, Facebook has launched Libra Scorpio, Wal-Mart has also announced that it wants to issue coins. Central banks have to issue their own digital legal currency. Even the company’s factory, Guo Taiming, has announced the release of the Taiwanese version of Libra. It can be said that various "XX versions of Libra" are being It is the hottest direction at the moment, and it is also the most fat direction, which is in line with the tastes of the giants.
Libra, a financial innovation experiment edited by the famous economist Zhu Jiaming, is the first book to study Libra in the world. I am also honored to participate in the writing and editing of the book review, so I am still interested in Libra. Have a little understanding.
The best quality assets in the human economy today are the legal and government bonds of powerful countries. Libra puts it into its own basket and generates Libra on its basis, forming a de facto “super-sovereign currency” that creates a new species that is above all existing economic systems and commercial systems.
This is also the root cause of the inexplicable panic of governments and giants: suddenly there is a species that completely crushes you, and you can't do anything about it. Therefore, the best way to deal with it is to do a Libra yourself.
There are two possible options on this route:
1. The domestic become the authorized issuer of the central bank's digital renminbi.
This is the easiest and least easy. It is easy to be legally regulated, and there is a payment license in his own hands; it is not easy for the players who stare at this cake in China to go. There are two mountains in front of Tencent and Ali. What is even more terrifying is UnionPay, Network and each. Major commercial banks and other national teams, behind the butt also chased a large number of SaaS software vendors, payment and receipt service providers, such as delicious, do not wait, two-dimensional fire, 哆 labao, collect money and so on.
This matter has a high probability of getting into a melee, but the US team, as a big player in the payment of the acquiring business, must not be absent.
2. Foreign countries rely on the Belt and Road to issue the Chinese version of Libra to seize the market vacancy of FACEBOOK.
This is the most imaginative route, but the US group has a fatal injury: its overseas business is still too early relative to domestic business. Facebook's Libra is relying on its 2.7 billion stocks worldwide to enter the era of super-sovereign currency through built-in payments. The number and influence of the US group's overseas users is not the same as that of FACEBOOK, so it is difficult to complete direct conversion like it.
But I think this fatal injury is actually a big chance for Wang Xing. Because super-sovereign currency is a new field after all, there are too many blank areas. With the organizational ability and efficiency of the US Mission, if it is once again in the Belt and Road, it is difficult for local players to resist. At the same time, this will also become a huge growth point for the next stage of the US group: it was paid by the ordering belt, and the next stage was to pay for the order.
The biggest obstacle on this route, Wang Xing and Zuckerberg are the same, is the hostile vision of the countries and the global supervision of the eye. However, in the tide of the internationalization of the renminbi, if we can long-distance dance and seize the historical opportunity, then there will be a chance in this field. Wang Xing surpasses the two horses, and shoulders Tesla and Zuckerberg. Perhaps it depends on this.