Since the start of the secondary market in April this year, the mining industry, which has been suspended for one year, has been completely awakened. The miners have reported a retaliatory rebound in the currency circle.
The real data is that within half a year, Bitcoin's total network computing power has broken from 38EH to 100EH, and it is currently around 95EH. Even if the secondary market has fallen sharply, the miners are still rushing at a speed of 180, without stopping.
- QKL123 market analysis | short-term V-shaped rebound, the market fell slightly (1101)
- Crypto.com Announces Beta Version of Crypto.com Chain (Preview Version)
- Take Ripple Coin (XRP) as an example to understand how big the international cross-border remittance of blockchain is.
- XRP volume breaks through, mainstream currency quotes start
- Blockchain Weekly | Who is the basis of the blockchain: public chain or AWS?
- Stable currency monthly report | USDC, DAI and other emerging stable currencies challenge USDT with DeFi scene?
Behind the frenzy of the mine, the potential risks are quietly approaching.
First, only half a year of fanaticism, several mainstream mining machines or re-smashed into scrap iron
From December of last year to the beginning of this year, the block winter chain was also the freezing point of the mining industry. The ant S9 series and the Shenma M3 series mining machines representing the mainstream mining machines at that time all fell sharply. The loss was caused by the start-up, which caused a large number of miners to be defeated in the final line of defense. In the short time, the market provoked a frenzy of selling mining machines.
At the end of December 2018, a large number of mining machines were sold at the price of scrap iron. The news that "the mining machine talked about selling" went to the mining circle and quickly caused widespread coverage by the mainstream media. The mining breakout theory was very difficult for a while.
From the intuitive feedback of the whole network data, the previous market peaks the total network computing power 86EH, and at the time when the mining machine was sold, the whole network computing power was reduced to 36EH up and down, and the machine with 50EH computing power in the middle was removed or even Sold off, the size is equivalent to 4 million ants s9 mining machine
We have also seen the outcome. After a few months, the industry has bottomed out and many people will get out of the car forever. How terrible the trampling of the collapse is, so how much the miners’ remorse will be eager this year, and the massive amount of machines that are considered scrap iron are re-purchased by miners at high prices for the seats. In order to cope with the enthusiasm of miners to buy and buy, the new generation of mining machine production capacity is seriously insufficient, the mainland has to develop the latest improved models S9K and S9SE based on s9.
On the one hand, the whole network computing power that has been piled up by the miners is continually weakening the marginal effect of mining machine revenue. On the other hand, the secondary market has made a big stepback and further reduced the legal currency revenue of the mining machine.
Last week, the fish pond (F2POOL) released the first profit and loss line warning since the Mavericks market. The Shenma M3 and the Avalon A741 mining machine have already hit the profit and loss line in the current market, which undoubtedly gave the overheated mine ring head-on. Poured a cold water.
The miners who were immersed in the mining dreams had to admit that the shadow of the original shutdown line had not gone far. More dangerously, the absolute mainstream ant S9 series machine has a shutdown line of $7,500. At present, it can only maintain a low profit operation. As long as the secondary market has another round of diving, the mine will immediately shut down.
As long as the market continues to decline or the network's computing power continues to rise, the reports on the mining machine will be seen in the major mainstream media. In just half a year, the ant mining machine S9 experienced a frenzy from being chased to close to the shutdown threshold. From re-launch to being removed again, it took only a little more than half a year for the mine to undergo another cycle.
Second, the mining game upgrade, mining gold age or has left us
From this round of changes in the mining circle, the game of the mining circle is becoming more and more complicated. In the past, the problem of solving power problems has solved the problem of more than 90% of the problems. It may be out of date. Even if it is still in a period of high waters, the status quo of the machine touching the profit and loss line is now in front of us. The mining model of mining has become complicated, and the golden age of mining that the first-time miners often mentioned is gradually drifting away.
The reason for this situation is not a simple factor, but more an inevitable outcome of the industry's self-evolution.
1) The cloud computing platform may be the biggest spoiler
The speed at which cloud computing leases rise in this round of the market has forced miners to face up to his existence. This kind of product that disperses large computing power and lowers the entry barrier of mining is recognized by those who invest outside the circle. In this round of market, cloud computing power as a user's entrance has contributed a lot of computing power to the mining circle, and is one of the important promoters behind the growth of the whole network computing power.
Since the beginning of this year, the cloud computing power has entered an outbreak period. The business of various platforms in the industry has increased to varying degrees. Coupled with the emergence of new computing platforms in a short period of time, cloud computing power has become a force that cannot be ignored in the mining industry.
At the Global Digital Mining Summit, which was just concluded in Frankfurt, Germany, Wu Jihan, the founder of Bitland, spoke on behalf of the organizers. Emphasizing the three major business cores of Bitland, namely, chips (including mining machines), digital currency financial services (DEFI) and mine services (including mining pools), informed sources, the main business of the Bit Continental Mine is also hosted from the mining machine Excessively come to the field of cloud computing rental.
The rise of cloud computing power is the biggest variable expected by miners, and now it is the actual problem that miners have to face.
2) Moore's Law is in power, and the "generation gap" becomes impossible to cross
Another uncertainty in the mining industry this year is the emergence of a large-scale mining machine. In 2018, the manufacturing process of mining machine chips jumped from 16nm to 7nm, and the single-machine computing power jumped from 20TH/s to 50TH/S. It was only when the mining industry was sluggish, and the miners’ enthusiasm for renewing the mining machine was not high. After the birth of a new generation of mining machines equipped with 7nm process chips, there was no opportunity to display them.
With the warming of the market, the large-scale mining machine was put on the shelves, and the miners finally experienced the fear of being dominated by Moore's Law. According to the data released by Dr. Yang Zuoxing, the founder of Shenma Mining Machinery, in the past half-year of the increase in computing power, only the large computing machine of Shenma’s family contributed 30%-40% of the computing power of the machine. This year, More than 100,000 sets of Shenma M20S and M21S models have been put on the market.
The single-machine power of Shenma m20s is as high as 68T/S. It is the model with the highest single-machine power in the mining machine that has been mass-produced. The power output of one Shenma m20s is equivalent to 6 ants T9+ (11.5T/S). The power consumption is only 2.3 times that of the latter.
The generation difference between mining machines is a gap that cannot be compensated by quantity. When the new mining machine began to be put on the market in batches, it had already blew the last horn of the life of the previous generation of mining machines. The difference between 14nm and 7nm is already different, but the footsteps of Moore's Law obviously have not stopped.
At this global digital mining summit, Bitcoin launched the new model ant S17+, which has reached 73T/S and surpassed Shenma m20S in one fell swoop, and can be mass-produced in the near future. What is even more desperate is that according to Wu Jihan, the 5nm process chip mining machine is already at the end of research and development, and the 3nm process chip is the direction that the industry is conquering.
The secondary market may not be the biggest threat to miners. The ever-expanding mining machine is the sword that hangs on every miner's head. When a new generation of mining machines begins to become popular, the existing mining machines will begin to face elimination. Almost a fate.
Third, breaking the dilemma of loop iteration, the parties in the industry are looking for better ways
In fact, the old miners have become eccentric about this death cycle of mining machines. The miners are being forced to struggle by this cycle. The machine iteration may be delayed and it will be extended for a long time. Therefore, the next iteration is missed. The slow pace of the step is to eliminate the last batch of slow miners.
In addition to desperately accelerating the iteration of their own mining machines, miners are constantly looking for ways to extend the life cycle of the mining machine. The cheaper electricity price can extend the life cycle of the mining machine indefinitely. In theory, as long as the electricity price is low enough, any machine can make money. Some old miners told us that the energy-rich Middle East has become the best destination for the elimination of second-hand mining machines in China.
We learned about the specific situation of second-hand mining machines going to the sea from a mining vertical mall. According to the person in charge of the mall, similar to the Shenma m3, ant l3+ and other machines that have been infinitely close to the shutdown line in China, a large number of transactions can be achieved on the platform every day, and the main flow of these used machines is the Middle East countries.
On the other hand, in the difficulty of iterative elimination of mining machines, a mine has put forward a constructive idea: "The future mining machine should have the ability to be reprogrammable." The root cause of the mining machine iteration is that the ASIC chip can only be used for the calculation of a single algorithm. The use of the ASIC chip is too single. Once the mining is negative, the machine can only be reduced to scrap iron.
If the decommissioning machine can be reprogrammed to assist in AI deep learning, cloud rendering, edge computing and other services that require massive computing power, the life cycle of the mining machine itself can be extended by more than ten times.
Moreover, the mining machine can switch the calculation power between cloud computing and mining. It is a weapon for the miners to resist periodicity. If the programmable mining machine can be realized technically, then the mining industry will have no such thing as a cold winter. The difference is only the income. High and low.
Pursuing the greatest certainty is the long-term pursuit of every investor and even speculator. Certainty stems from human aversion to risk instinct, but a large part of the profit of mining is based on the volatility of the market. The miners who have been involved can only hug the uncertainty while looking for more possibilities. Ways to hedge risk. This is like an adventurer in the era of great voyages. As long as I believe that there is still a new continent waiting to be discovered, there is a reason for Yang Fan to go out to sea.
Editor's Note: This article does not change the original intention of the author.