Jiang Zhuoer: Will it come if the halving of the bull market will come?

At present, some people think that it is still a bear market. Some people think that it is the early stage of the bull market. Regardless of the opinion, it means that the current position of the bull and bear cycle contains the rising potential that can be halved.

Some people say that everyone thinks that the halving will be a bull market, and the overdraft will benefit in advance, so the halving of the bull market will not come.

Regarding the question of whether or not the bull market will come, how can it come from?

First, the external performance: LTC halving instance

LTC is a good experimental currency for BTC. LTC is halved earlier than BTC, and this round of LTC halving has happened on August 5 this year. Everyone expects LTC to be half-bulk, so how can the actual market go? What about it?

It can only be said that history has a striking similarity. This round of LTC halving is basically a round of money-sending market. With almost the same time point (half the distance), you can have several times of profit, and you will get the money. ?

Second, the inner principle: supply halving + bullish bear periodic fluctuations

The LTC halved bull market is so similar to the previous round and has an intrinsic principle. It is not necessary to say that the supply is halved. The instantaneous supply of one commodity is halved, which inevitably causes the supply and demand curve to move and the price to rise.

The long-term net supply of Bitcoin is only miners' output, and the net demand is the demand for newcomers to enter the market. The demand will not be abrupt, so the halving of the supply will inevitably lead to price increases, and then may form news. The yak market effect is constantly attracting new people to enter the market.

I repeated the passage in the previous cycle, "Talk about 4000 yuan is the beginning of the bitcoin bull market":

For the halving of the good, many technical analysts believe that the good news is bad, this round of bull market is here – sorry I don't know the technical side, but I know that the halving of the output on the basic surface is a continuous effect. Good, for example, if an oil company discovers a large oil field, the company's share price will fall after the oil field is put into production, and it will fall for a long time because it is "good for bad". Obviously not, the stock price will only rise with the accumulation of new oil fields, the company's profits and capital accumulation.

Regarding the cyclical fluctuations of the bulls and bears, I have said in the previous lectures why Bitcoin is valuable and has a bull market because Bitcoin provides new economic freedom through decentralization (indestructible) (cross-border, non-frozen, anti-inflation) The stored value, etc.) brought the user just needed, so the bitcoin rose.

The bitcoin bull market is created by intrinsic value, while the bear market is created by the bull market. When a bull market to the final market is emotionally frenzy, the bubble is serious, and the short-term currency price increases more than the newcomer's new fund entry speed, the bull market bubble will break. Off, the bear market will begin. As I said in my previous lectures, this process is described in mathematical language, which is that the "60-day cumulative increase" is too high.

Third, the cycle of the bull and bear cycle + halving cycle

Therefore, the bullish cycle of Bitcoin is not created by halving, but it would have happened: it is so useful, so it rises, so it rises. Even if Bitcoin is designed to have a constant output, rather than halving it, Bitcoin will experience periodic bullish fluctuations.

The design of halving bitcoin output every four years makes the "bull cycle" and "half-half cycle" resonate. For example, the bear market should start to bottom in April, but it will be halved in July, and halving means rising, making the bottoming time early, and the “bull and bear cycle” is gradually adjusted to coincide with the “half cycle” to form a resonance. .

As a result, there is a clear resonance in the history of Bitcoin, and a spectacular halving of the bull market occurred in the last two halvings (when the blue color turns red).

4. Conclusion: History will not repeat itself, but it has amazing similarities.

1. At present, some people think that it is still a bear market. Some people think that it is the early stage of the bull market. No matter which kind of opinion, it means that the current position of the bull and bear cycle contains the rising potential that can be detonated by half.

2, BTC's halving of the bull market, it is likely to start in a very similar form like LTC halved the bull market.

3. Any technical analysis that predicts the trend from the short-term K-line (rather than the K-line over 4 years) is useless because there is no halving in the short-term K-line.

4, long-term can be predicted to halve the bull market, but the short-term currency price can not be predicted, so do not play leveraged futures, in October and October to complete the fixed investment of the remaining funds, take the spot to die.

Author: Jiang Chelsea

Source: Weibo