The blockchain industry is in trouble, where is the road to break?

Author: Robin

Source: X-Order

In the past half year of 19 years, BTC has steadily increased from 3k at the beginning of the year to the current million. Recently, it has dropped back to 8k. It will be felt that chatting with friends in other industries will bring good returns this year.

Bitcoin price chart for 2019

If you look at it from BTC alone, it should be. But the strange thing is that the mood of the entire currency circle is lower, which is a real feeling that the industry can understand.

Confused and confused

On the surface, it is because the mainstream currency and the altcoin have not kept up with the increase of BTC, and even many small currencies have a big decline. Recently, in addition to the two major hotspots other than BTC, platform currency & IEO, the model currency has also begun to turn downwards, aggravating everyone's anxiety.

Just as price is a manifestation of the economy, the price of the currency is also a reflection of the state of the industry. Therefore, for all practitioners, the continuous decline in the price of coins reflects a worry on a larger level, that is, whether the industry still has a future. We have had a heated debate on this issue before, and interested readers please see "The Currency Circle of Life and Death | X-Order Debate Sharing".

Here I would like to share some of the other industries in history, even the initial development of the industry, in order to observe how an industry will experience the process of development in order to help everyone better understand the development of the industry. Some flaws in the process.

Industry that has disappeared in history

From the perspective of the most macro-industry classification, many industries will survive forever, because the industry represents demand and some of the needs are born as human beings, such as food, clothing and housing.

These industries, which are constantly evolving to high-dimensionality, will gradually withdraw from the low-dimensional form of the industry. So here we need to drop a dimension to discuss some of the more segmented industries.

Often we believe that there are two drivers for the evolution of the industry: the refinement of demand and the advancement of technology .

Take the communications industry as an example:

Demand refinement

The communications industry from ancient letters, to modern telegraph calls, to modern mobile phones, IM chat tools, and e-mail, describes the transformation of the big industry paradigm.

In ancient times, in addition to letters, there were also bonfires and drumming communications, but in comparison, the richness and integrity of the information content was compared to a single light or Sound signals, letters are much better.

If the method of drumming is to meet the needs of a single signal transmission, then the letter is sufficient to meet the needs of all-round information transmission. This is actually a refinement of individual needs.

Here is a detail added. At the earliest, letters and texts were used to record some things, mainly financial or lending relationships.

Many times, this information is burned in a fixed location, such as stones, stumps and other objects. In this case, the text or the letter is only a record of information, and does not develop the role of information transmission. It is precisely because of the high demand for information transmission that the technology that was in existence at that time was activated, and it was derived from simple records for the transmission of information.

The refinement of demand has led to the gradual withdrawal of communication methods that are unable to meet the demand, and only in a few cases (such as lack of resources) are forced to use.

skill improved

The advancement of technology is more obvious to everyone.

In 1844, Morse invented the telegraph. In the 1950s, Meuch invented the telephone. In 1876, Bell experimented with the first available telephone and obtained a patent.

Throughout the 19th century, people's communication methods have undergone successive changes. In the early days, they still passed the letter. In the middle and later stages, the aristocrats with capital strength can already assume the use of telegrams as communication tools. At the end of the 19th century and early 20th century, telephones began to gradually replace telegraphs as communication tools.

Stepping into the 21st century Internet era, the invention of new technologies such as mobile communication and e-mail has replaced fixed-line telephones.

The revolution brought about by technological advancement is even more cruel.

Imagine how many people still use letter communication? Except for some people who retain their literary feelings. This has also led to the rapid decline of many letters-related industries. The telegraph industry is even more bleak. It is not necessary to say that the telegraph machine has been used since the 80s and 90s. The phone is still everywhere, but those ones that have been popular, and some canteens that can call other provinces or even international calls have almost disappeared.

The end of an industry will inevitably lead to the disappearance of related supporting industries or derivative industries surrounding their development.

In other words, the replacement of the industry must be driven by new technologies or further refined requirements.

After analyzing the development process of the communication industry, we have come back to see the current blockchain industry. At present, we can't see that the new technology can match the existing relatively mature solutions (even if we need to meet the decentralized value transmission). New technologies are born, and they need to go through a certain maturity period. They have not evolved new demand points to improve this existing demand. This is why I think the blockchain can go further.

The blockchain industry has great potential because of increased demand and advances in technology that will drive industry growth.

Investment setbacks in emerging industries
The 10-year history of Bitcoin is believed to be familiar to many elderly people in the currency circle. Here we want to show a more interesting past to help us look at the development of the industry more dynamically.

As early as 2011, when Wu Jihan had not established Bitland, Li Xiaolai had invested more than 600,000 yuan with his friends to build a small mine.

Said the mine is a bit exaggerated, in fact, is to buy a bunch of computers contracted a container with some air conditioning and other simple equipment to start mining. At that time, there was no ASIC mining machine for pumpkin Zhang and roast cat. Purely using the graphics card for mining, the result of low efficiency must have ended in failure.

At the end of the mine experiment, only more than 100 bitcoins were dug up, which was calculated according to the highest market price of 32 dollars in 11 years, which is about 20,000 yuan.

Figure source knows the article: "Why are fewer and fewer people using CPU/GPU mining? What are the advantages of ASIC mining machines? 》(link: https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/35563341)

Obviously, the gap between input and output is too big, obviously a failed investment.

Standing at the time, Li Xiaolai’s teacher, as an investor, should take the death penalty for mining. Naturally, he did not pay attention to the birth of the first ASIC mining machines in 13 years.

It may indeed be that the mining industry (previously considered an industry, although not yet formed) 13 years ago is not worth investing in itself. At the moment when the ASIC mining machine appeared in 13 years, it became the investment time point of the best mining industry.

Is this feeling like deja vu, is it particularly like a target investment in the secondary market? When its price fell all the way, almost everyone thought it lost its investment value, but inadvertently it came to the value turning point.

Breaking direction

The key to driving the industry's development – attractive

The development process of the mining industry suggests that we should not evaluate an industry in a static way, because the current state does not represent the future.

So where should we focus on an emerging industry? I think the core is the law of attraction – the multidimensional attraction that drives productivity inputs.

First of all, the industry must be attractive and attractive, which is the driving force behind the need to invest .

Usually in a capitalist society, investment attractiveness is the easiest to understand. Why did the industry have a qualitative leap and explosion in the past 17 years, because the large-volume participants saw the outbreak of various types of small currencies in the first half of the year, and the three-month yields were hundreds of times more than a single standard. Such a large wealth effect has attracted many investors/speculators into the industry, and it has also attracted some entrepreneurs to try to do some projects to nugget.

But for any industry that wants to continue, the attractiveness of investment is not enough. Investment attractiveness can only be used to explain the process of rapid growth of an industry. In the early stage of the industry and the low point of the industry, it cannot be used to judge the subsequent development, and this needs to rely on its more fundamental attraction, or need a Anchor points can be used to motivate the anchor of human instinctive behavior.

Just as games are very attractive to people, it is because people enjoy the wonderful experience brought by the virtual world, so they are willing to spend a lot of money and time to play games and enjoy, so the attraction only needs an anchor. Just one attraction can make people voluntarily invest time and energy to get something done.

Similarly, people who are involved in the blockchain industry may be attracted to something in the industry, perhaps out of interest, may be dissatisfied with the economic system at the time, and may be the embarrassment of decentralized future ideals. These factors led them to invest their own productivity, doing something that was not so cost-effective at the time.

Some early participants in the industry, who first touched Bitcoin, even contributed code to Bitcoin, and preached, often out of recognition for the project and felt unique.

These productivity ultimately constitute the driving force for the evolution of this industry.

Another inspiring model of the development of traditional industries comes from the education industry.

The important source of income for many foreign universities is the alumni donation. In a capitalist society, the rate of return on investment is the key. Donating this behavior is generally considered unsustainable. We also know that in the usual company's income statement, it is classified as non-recurring gains and losses. However, according to statistics, donation income is a fairly stable source of income for many years.

The motives of donors may be fame and fortune, out of selfishness, or just out of love, but the result is that the school's target has a special appeal that makes these people willing to continue to invest. And many schools have a longer life than the company.

The current situation of the blockchain industry is that with the recent skyrocketing, it seems that the attractiveness of short-term investment in the industry is declining. However, we can see that there are still a steady stream of innovative projects emerging, new productivity is being invested, and various projects are constantly being updated, optimized, and upgraded.

The appeal behind these productivity is not just as simple as investing, but their continued investment indicates that the industry is still moving in a healthier direction.

Possible direction of landing in the future

All of the above are from the macroscopic point of view of the entire industry, of course, we can play a cold observer, through the insight into the dynamics of the industry to do something to help. However, as a practitioner, I hope that through my own efforts, I will find a more suitable direction for the industry.

Direction 1: Improve self-hematopoietic capacity

The biggest concern in the industry now is whether the project will die because there is not enough cash flow. Therefore, whether the project side has its own hematopoietic capacity, rather than relying solely on selling coins to maintain survival is the key .

There are a lot of traditional projects, there are some cash flow, including the short book, Jarvis+, etc. For its own business operation, the blockchain and the pass are only part of the process, not for the purpose of pursuing the block. Chaining, and destroying many of the original business models.

Direction 2: Creating a demand closed loop

Hematopoiesis is certainly a way to make a project survive, but for an emerging industry, it is better to form its own unique and irreplaceable needs. This is the foundation for the industry to exist and develop in the long run.

Xiao Feng also mentioned at the Wanxiang Blockchain Conference that many of our projects are now + blockchains, but in the future there will be more blockchains + . So creating a unique closed-loop demand will be a more effective way to push the industry forward than hematopoiesis.

How do you count yourself as a unique requirement?

To give some examples, the ICO at the rise of Ethereum, as a specific financing method, the entire process is completed within the closed loop of the pass. The transaction fee deduction for major exchanges is also a unique requirement.

We need to explore the possible closed-loop demand in the future. Here are three directions. If you have other ideas about closed-loop requirements, you can leave a message below and discuss and discuss.

Diversified cross-border organization incentives

Organizational incentives are believed to be familiar to everyone, and they are often mentioned in the field of blockchain. The emphasis here is on diversity and cross-border.

Diversity actually corresponds to the multidimensional appeal mentioned earlier. Because open-organization projects have lower barriers, they can accept enough people to invest in productivity. Different levels of attraction lead to contributions from different dimensions, either capital investment or code input.

There are two levels of cross-border, one is cross-border and the other is across time.

The advantage of using a pass to reward a particular behavior within an organizational system or to meet a particular need is that you don't have to care about the differences in national boundaries. It may be that the time spent developing a piece of code in one country is much higher than in another country, but such behavior in the internal domain of the organization is consistent if it is measured by the pass.

The time dimension may be the more ultimate application of Citation, and the distribution and use of CV does not change with the conversion of the people involved in the project. Few currencies can do intergenerational inheritance. Will it be more advantageous?

Gamification

The game industry is currently the most suitable scene for the pass. It combines the hematopoietic ability and direction of demand creation in the direction of the first.

Various industries and buildings in the blockchain sandbox game "NeoWorld"

To some extent, there are already products in the existing system of the game industry, such as the World of Warcraft gold coins.

The game is an open world that can create demand. In addition to not meeting the physical needs (there is a trend to combine some of the physical requirements with both AR and VR), it can create almost unlimited high-level requirements. Naturally, he is a closed loop in itself. What plays a role in this closed loop is the game's pass.

Still not feeling? Go and see the number one player.

Because of its extreme virtualization, the game industry is almost a testing ground for all innovative information products. It is important to know that in China, the first ordinary people (non-geek) who are mining are from various gold-working studios in the game industry. They worked part time to mine bitcoin in 10 years, they are the earliest miners in the industry.

Machine requirements

The picture shows that Cambridge University's two scholars Carl Benedikt frey and Michael Osborne predicted in 2013 that in the next 10-20 years, 47% of the 702 jobs in the United States may be replaced by computers.

Musk has expressed the possibility of AI replacing humans on many occasions. Even if it is not completely replaced, we can also find that more artificial intelligence robots have begun to infiltrate all walks of life.

Money is a human demand, so if one day robots need to solve the problem of the tragedy of the commons, how do they allocate resources directly? The pass is undoubtedly the best choice. The machines can directly verify the reliability of the pass and exchange resources with the pass as a bridge. Then if humans need to interact with the machine, the certificate becomes an indispensable exchange tool.

Source: "I, Robot" (2004) stills

In the robot world, the pass is just needed.