QKL123 market analysis | Bakkt options before the CME; quantum computers are not enough (1025)

Abstract: The broader market has stabilized, but the rebound is weak, and the short-term range is dominated. Recently, Bitcoin is facing the choice of bulls and bears, and the market will have a high probability of bottoming up. Yesterday, Bakkt announced that it will launch a compliance bitcoin option contract in December; currently quantum computers will not pose a threat to encryption technology, and the community will have a response in the future.

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According to QKL123 statistics, at 13:00 on October 25, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 1,849.445 billion yuan, the total market value of 24 hours increased or decreased by +0.84%, the total turnover was 404.70 billion yuan, and the total turnover changed by -29.81%. The market activity is significantly reduced. The Babbitt Composite Index reported 10490.13 points, with a 24-hour up/down of +0.82%, reflecting a rebound in the broader market; the Bitcoin Strength Index was reported at 91.97 points, and the 24-hour rate was -1.01%. The relative performance of Bitcoin in the entire market was weak. The Alternative sentiment index was 24, a slight increase from yesterday (20), and the market sentiment was still extremely fearful.

Among the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), BSV had the largest increase in 24 hours (+13.62%), and BNB had the largest decline in 24 hours (-0.71%). The USDT has risen and fallen to -0.29% for 24 hours. The current net inflow of funds today – 2013.64 million yuan, reversed from yesterday; the ChaiNext USDT over-the-counter discount index was reported at 101.29, and the 24-hour rate was -0.01%.

In the past day, global Bitcoin's Google search relative value (peak 80) dropped significantly from the previous value (peak 100), approaching a one-month high. The top seven countries in the heat are Nigeria (100), South Africa (50), Austria (50), Germany (47), Switzerland (45), Ghana (45) and the Netherlands (40). In related topics, the quantum computer search volume ranks first. In the past day, the global Ethereum's Google search relative value (peak 77) has fallen from the previous value (peak 93), higher than the one-month average.

Analyst's point of view:

Yesterday, Bakkt announced that it will launch its first BIT-based futures-based compliant option product on December 09, and will launch a market maker program to promote Bitcoin futures contract trading. The day before, the 24-hour trading volume of Bakkt Bitcoin monthly futures (more than 450) hit a new high, but today it has dropped significantly (more than 310), and the relative transaction volume is still small. Since CME announced in September that it will launch Bitcoin options in the first quarter of next year, Bakkt will give a hit before launching the CME, and there will be a limited fee-free activity.

Recently, IBM has strongly refuted Google's "quantum hegemony" and caused widespread concern. According to IBM's related papers, Google's claimed test results (quantum computing requires a supercomputer to calculate 10,000 years in 200 seconds) are problematic, mainly because the supercomputer power is not fully utilized (conservative estimates only take two and a half days). Compared with traditional computers, quantum computers have certain advantages, but they are limited to the calculation of classical problems, and the threat of encryption technology is not considered. In the future, quantum computing may pose a threat, but the Bitcoin system is based on community consensus and can be upgraded in advance for quantum computing threats.

First, the spot BTC market

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Yesterday, BTC stabilized, but the weak rebound, and continued to range fluctuations ($7,300 to $7,800). Today, BTC shocked around $7,360 and then oscillated around $7,500. It is a short-term choice for the demarcation of the bulls and bears. If it falls again, it will likely fall into a long bear market.

Fund face

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As of 15:00, BTC's net outflow of funds today was 19,596,200 yuan. Among them, the net inflow of oversized single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 45.716 million yuan, the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 115.5482 million yuan, and the net is between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan. The outflow was 175.870 million yuan, and the net outflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 338.73 million yuan. There are differences in the market, with a net outflow of small single funds.

2. Fundamentals

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Yesterday, the average calculation power of BTC's entire network was 102.74EH/s, which was lower than yesterday's, which was close to the historical high. The long-term upward trend has not changed. The number of active addresses on the chain is 709,800, a slight decrease from the previous day, nearly one month. The high point of the chain; the trading volume on the chain was 993,300, which was lower than the previous day and higher than the one-month average; the number of coins destroyed in the day was 9,556,400 (historically smaller), which was lower than the previous day, and the long-term uptrend was not met. damage.

Second, the spot ETH market

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Yesterday, ETH went up to 163 US dollars in the evening and then went down. Now it is back to 163 US dollars. The ETH/BTC transaction is slightly oscillating, and the short-term linkage is dominated. The daily RSI shows that it is oversold and will rebound in a short time.

Fund face

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As of 15:00, ETH's net outflow of funds today was 107.6637 million yuan. Among them, the net inflow of oversized single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 6,878,200 yuan, the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 4,334,400 yuan, and the net is between 30,000 yuan and 30,000 yuan. The inflow of 61.6068 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 219.24 million yuan. There is a big difference in the market, with a large outflow of small orders.

2. Fundamentals

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Observing DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp has decreased. Game application My Crypto Heroes's 24-hour active users 3.1k, 24-hour change +6.62%; financial application MakerDAO 24-hour active users 2.1k, 24-hour change -19.75%; quiz application Playtowin.io 24-hour active users The number is 1k, 24 hours change +0.50%.

Third, the spot LTC market

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Yesterday evening LTC put a 50-dollar pin-up, and it will rebound after a short period of stabilization, and short-term linkage of bitcoin.

Fund face

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As of 15:00, the net outflow of LTC funds today was 66.609 million yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 33.844 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 3,811.98 yuan, the middle of the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net outflow The net outflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 5,824,300 yuan. There are differences in the market, with a large outflow of small orders.

2. Fundamentals

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Yesterday, the average net computing power of LTC was 216.34TH/s, which continued to decline from yesterday, close to the low point of eight months. After the halving of the block reward on August 05, the computing power has declined. There is no sign of recovery. Although it has not fallen below the low of the beginning of the year, the risk of stamping is greater. The number of active addresses on the LTC chain (5.19 million) dropped slightly from the previous day, lower than the one-month average; the transaction volume on the LTC chain (491.29 million) increased significantly from the previous day, which was the highest in the month; the number of coins destroyed in the day (508.09 million, history) Median), there is a certain risk of selling pressure in a short time.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

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Yesterday, EOS dropped to a maximum of 2.78 US dollars and then fell back. It will be tested again now, and it will be slightly stronger in a short time.

Fund face

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As of 15:00, EOS's net capital inflow today was 24.6252 million yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 1.177 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 17.6545 million yuan, the middle (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The inflow of 3,294,270 yuan, the small outflow (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 24.79 million yuan. There are major differences in the market, with a net inflow of medium singles.

2. Fundamentals

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According to DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp has dropped significantly. The number of 24-hour users of game EOS Dynasty is 3k, which is -3.13% compared with yesterday; the number of 24-hour active users who use Dice is 2.3k, which is -15.59% compared with yesterday; the number of active users of trading with Newdex is 1.3k, compared with yesterday. The change was -15.01%; the number of 24-hour active users of the data application Lumeos was 1.1k, which was -3.14% compared with yesterday.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is improving. At present, the high probability is in the stage of partial adjustment. The mad cow market is likely to arrive in the next one to two years. The relative price of the BTC of the smart contract platform leader ETH, the cottage coin LTC, and the DPoS leader EOS is close to the low of the year and can be properly configured.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

At present, Bitcoin is near the 200-day moving average, and it is more likely to make a short-term bottom-up.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

In the short-term range, the shock rebounds, but the small position can be supported by the low-suction and high-throwing, and the stop loss.

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VI. Appendix – Index Interpretation

1. Babbitt Composite Index

The Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) consists of the largest and most representative Tokens in the global market for existing blockchains to reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain Token market.

2. Bitcoin strength index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the conversion of Bitcoin in the entire Token market, which in turn reflects the competitive strength of Bitcoin in the market and is used to measure the extent to which Bitcoin changes the relative price of a basket of Tokens. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger the bitcoin in the Token market.

3.Alternative sentiment index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects the emotional changes in the market, with 0 meaning “extreme fear” and 100 meaning “extreme greed”. The indicators include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), trend (10%).

4.USDT Off-exchange Discount Index

The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. An index of 100 indicates USDT parity, an index greater than 100 indicates a USDT premium, and a value less than 100 indicates a USDT discount.

5. Google search trend

This refers to Google web search data results, the relative value of the search in the specified time and region: the hottest record of 100, the heat accounted for the highest half of 50, there is not enough data of 0. Note: The higher the score in a country, the higher the percentage of search terms in all local search terms, and does not mean the absolute number of searches.

6. Net inflow of funds (out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds from the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow of funds and the outflow of funds on the global exchange (not including false transactions), positive values ​​indicate net inflows of funds, while negative values ​​indicate net outflows of funds. Among them, the turnover is calculated as the inflow of funds when the rise, and the turnover is calculated as the outflow when the decline occurs.

7. Currency Day Destruction

Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days of Bitcoin holdings. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. BTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 100 million is the maximum value; 50 to 100 million is the larger value; 10 to 50 million is the median; less than or equal to 10 million is the smaller value. LTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 500 million is the maximum value; 100 million to 500 million is the larger value; 50 to 100 million is the median; less than or equal to 50 million is the smaller value.

8. Number of active addresses on the chain

The number of active addresses on the chain refers to the number of addresses in the chain address of the block chain. Usually, this indicator can reflect the activity level of a chain of a public chain, and the demand activities under the chain such as secondary market transactions and wallet use will have a greater impact on it.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.