On Thursday, the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee conducted collective learning on the status quo and trends of blockchain technology development. From the information communication after the meeting, I made a more detailed plan for the future development of the blockchain. I followed the logical thinking of reading through the information and gave you a more straightforward summary. I read some of the so-called expert interpretations. It seems to say a lot, but there is no point or clue, and I have more macro interpretations attached to it.
The first is to characterize the blockchain technology:
1. Global competition for technology (currently, major countries around the world are accelerating the development of blockchain technology.)
- 60% of Bitcoin has not been moved for nearly a year, investors prefer to store coins rather than trade
- A hundred years of loneliness - the magical realism of the renminbi
- Li Dongrong, China Mutual Gold Association: The development of digital currency cannot violate the essence of monetary activity
- Wall Street Journal: Central bank digital currency may end US dollar hegemony
- European Central Bank board member: Globally stablecoin untested, may trigger risks in multiple policy areas
- Market Analysis: Falling as expected, risk control is the number one priority
2. It plays an important role in the entire technology and industry sectors (the integrated application of blockchain technology plays an important role in new technological innovations and industrial changes.)
3. China has a good development foundation. Blockchain technology will be fully integrated into the economy and society in the future (China has a good foundation in the blockchain field, we must accelerate the development of blockchain technology and industrial innovation, and actively promote blockchain and economy. Social integration development.)
The second is to clarify the development goals:
Strive to become a leader in the blockchain field (try to make China in the emerging field of blockchain, at the forefront of theory, occupy the commanding heights of innovation, gain new industrial advantages, and enhance the right to speak and rule in the world.)
The third is to point out the application areas that need to be deepened:
Digital finance, Internet of Things, intelligent manufacturing, supply chain management, digital asset trading and many other fields.
The fourth is to develop blockchain + in the future:
1. For the first time at the national level, propose “blockchain+” (to explore the use of “blockchain+” in the field of people's livelihood, and actively promote blockchain technology in education, employment, pension, precision poverty alleviation, medical health, commodity anti-counterfeiting, Application in the fields of food safety, public welfare, and social assistance.)
2. Put forward three directions (to accelerate industrial development, give play to market advantages, and further open up the innovation chain, application chain, and value chain.)
The fifth is how to supervise:
It is necessary to explore the establishment of a safety guarantee system that adapts to the blockchain technology mechanism, and guide and promote blockchain developers and platform operators to strengthen industry self-discipline and implement safety responsibilities. It is necessary to implement the rule of law network into the management of blockchain and promote the safe and orderly development of blockchain.
The news was broadcast on the news broadcast on Friday night. After the broadcast, the market reacted strongly. It has been born for 10 years, and Bitcoin, which has truly created the concept of “blockchain”, has seen an increase of more than 30% overnight. The stocks of Chinese companies listed in the US related to the blockchain concept have risen sharply. In the past year, the stock price fell by 70% of the Thunder, and the stock price doubled overnight, up 107%. It can be seen that the impact on the market is huge.
I have always said that the 3.0 of the blockchain is not a breakthrough in technology, but a participatory engagement with society and the government. If a technology cannot sweep all social groups and organizations, the innovation and revolution of this technology will be Have a question mark.
So what is the background of this meeting? What impact will it have on the market? I am afraid that many people still have not figured out the market reaction. What is more important is the psychological impact of the inherent logic of the Chinese market. Because China's economy and industrial structure still rely mainly on policy dominance, the information released by the Politburo, especially the characterization and encouragement of some industries, means that there will be key support and development in the future, but this kind of support and development will How to reflect it?
First let's take a look at the background of this meeting.
The collective learning system of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee began after the 16th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (2002). In the five years from the 16th to the 17th National Congress, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee insisted on collective learning nearly 50 times, and invited more than 100 The experts and scholars gave special lectures, all of which were chaired by the President of the State. The scope of study included economic, political, cultural, social, legal, historical, scientific, military, sports and many other aspects. Many of the issues studied and discussed were at that time. Hot spots or major subject issues.
I have detailed statistics. Since the beginning of this year, including the study on the "blockchain", the number of collective learning by the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee has reached seven times. That is to say, on average, it will be collectively learned in less than one and a half months.
I personally think this frequency is very interesting, because from the perspective of socio-economic development, the cycle of one month to two months is a very important time node, and it can be said that it is an inflection point of an ultra-short cycle. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting for the global economy is also on average one and a half months (eight times a year).
If you look closely, the main content of the collective learning of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee this year is actually very practical and guiding, because after collective learning, many actions follow. However, it is worth noting that the first six times are about public opinion, political and legal military, and financial risk prevention. Only this time is the theme of economic innovation, and the main discussion is the “blockchain”, which is still very significant. of.
I have counted the first six learning topics since this year. You can pay attention to it.
The first January 25th, the theme was "bigger and stronger mainstream paradox."
The second February 23rd, the theme is "improving financial services and preventing financial risks."
The third April 20th, the theme is "the historical significance and the value of the times of the May Fourth Movement."
The fourth July 7th, the theme is "keep in mind the initial mission and advance the self-revolution."
On the fifth July 31, the theme was "Promoting the reform of the military policy system."
The sixth September 24th, the theme is "the formation and development of the new Chinese state system and legal system."
The seventh time is the "blockchain" theme of the 24th of this month. Since the “blockchain” has a “original sin” in the global market, it is its inventor, aiming to get rid of the traditional data-driven operation mode driven by “centralization” technology, so that there is no government guarantee as any legal guarantee. Under the conditions of running a trading and settlement system, this is actually more understood by market believers, is to get rid of the government's "control", in order to counter the government's excessive intervention in the currency and other markets.
Therefore, the entire “blockchain” market, especially the digital currency market such as Bitcoin, has certain extreme and paranoid problems. On the one hand, it scorns political policy issues and believes that the government is involuntarily in front of this technology. I am also very much looking forward to receiving government recognition, and the mood is extremely complicated.
Until the US Internet giant Facebook announced a high-profile announcement of the new world digital currency Libra based on "blockchain" technology, and after a long period of collisions with the US government and EU countries, the market suddenly found that even more than 20 Facebook for billions of users is also difficult to avoid supervision, that is, to make a real blockchain industry, affect hundreds of millions of people, and even change the world, dialogue with existing governments, and existing policies Grasping coordination is a problem that cannot be avoided, and everyone has begun to pay attention to national policies.
So why should the China Political Bureau learn the "blockchain"?
You can go and read my article about Libra and China's digital currency, which is close to ten articles and tens of thousands of words. I mentioned that blockchain technology is already in use in many real estate industries, as well as e-commerce and China's national financial institutions. In addition, US high-tech companies need to use "blockchain" technology to break the US's own finance. Monopoly, which directly skips "mobile payment" and enters the digital currency era, so that it can bend the overtaking of China's mobile payment lead. Otherwise, according to the current US mechanism, it is very difficult to develop mobile payment.
When Facebook’s founder recently attended the hearing in Congress, Patrick McHenry, a senior Republican member of the US House Financial Services Committee, asked Zuckerberg directly. Since China’s Alipay and WeChat are Facebook’s competitors, why not make a Facebook version. Payment tools to fight against? Zuckerberg’s answer is that (an Alipay and WeChat payment) they are not only Facebook rivals, but also compete with companies across the United States, relying on infrastructure that is more advanced than the infrastructure used by US companies.
Zuckerberg directly suggested in Congress that if US regulators block Facebook's Libra cryptocurrency program, the US's leadership in the financial sector will be further threatened by China. In order to meet the strategic needs of the United States, Zuckerberg said that Libra will mainly support the US dollar and believe that it will expand the financial leadership of the United States around the world, as well as the democratic values and supervision of the United States, if the United States does not innovate, financial leadership There is no guarantee; China is taking swift action to launch a similar project in the coming months.
Libra project CEO Marcus said in an interview with Bloomberg during the same period that if we can't find a good answer (the US does not approve Libra), five years later, China is basically re-linking a large part of the world. Let the yuan run on the blockchain they control.
Many people think that Zuckerberg is playing Chinese cards in order to make Libra approved. In fact, China's digital currency DCEP has indeed made all preparations from the theoretical and technical aspects, but I have done prophetic analysis before, China will not push DCEP first, because China does not dare to take risks, and once the United States approves Libra, China soon Will push his own DCEP.
Why is China not pushing DCEP in advance? The reason is that China does not have detailed planning and control over the global financial system. The operation of the currency is completely different from the output of the physical industry. China’s infrastructure construction can be implemented in any country. However, the operation of the renminbi in the world is very troublesome to manage.
DCEP may be difficult to be approved by the Chinese government until the capital flows, the internationalization of asset transactions, the globalization and systematization of RMB settlement are not resolved. On the other hand, the emergence of Libra and the maturity of DCEP technology will reverse the reform and internationalization of China's financial industry. "Blockchain" is a strategic high point for China and the United States to compete for in the future (for this issue, you can see my previous analysis Xiao Lei: from legal tender to digital currency, similar to the planned economy to the market economy ).
We will return to the Politburo to study the issue of "blockchain."
From the perspective of leading innovation in the future, what technology is revolutionary, or which technology is forward-looking? This is a problem that the whole country needs to pay attention to. China is currently in the stage of industrial transformation, and technological innovation is coming to China. It is not only a question of economic development but also a political task.
One of the most important aspects of this Sino-US talks is the issue of intellectual patents. In the past, many technologies, China has been starting late for various reasons, so it has to be imitated and re-innovated. There is a lot of controversy. Leading to many contradictions between China and the United States. However, for many emerging technology fields that have just been born, China can no longer pursue the path of catching up. This determines the right to speak in the next negotiation field between China and the United States. In the fields of artificial intelligence, big data, etc., China already has many policy support. And attention, although the "blockchain" is juxtaposed with artificial intelligence, but it has not received more significant attention, so the Politburo study also released a signal to the market, encouraging greater innovation in this field, combined with the entity. To make a real intellectual property advantage, this is the most realistic purpose.
In addition, since Zuckerberg and others want to play Chinese cards, the United States will point to China, so if China does not pay attention, it will not be able to say it. In many fields, Americans actually have anxiety. This kind of anxiety is the anxiety of the first place, because the second one just wants to work hard to catch up with the first place, but as the first place, always worry. I am being overtaken, so China needs to create more of this anxiety for the United States, so that the United States will lose a potential advantage.
This potential advantage may not be clear to everyone. For example, in the matter of suppressing Huawei, it is relatively unsuccessful to see the United States. The United States has warned that countries that ban the use of Huawei equipment are not allowed to listen to the United States. However, many Huawei suppliers in the United States have requested to lift the supply restrictions on Huawei, and there is no progress in the development of 5G in the United States. The main reason for this frustration is that many US strategies are no longer focused on the long-term, but are eager to cope. Everyone knows that when a country leads the world a lot, there is not such a strong sense of urgency, it is easier to formulate and implement a longer-term, big strategy, and many strategies in the United States have become short-sighted. This is after China catches up. The result of American anxiety, that is, China’s catch-up and anxiety created for Americans, is suppressing the space for the United States to develop better strategies.
The third reason is that China is currently a political logic based on economic development. After enjoying the economic development dividend brought by the Internet, China has been unable to leave the support of Internet technology, and China’s development logic is general and more inclined to top-down policy-led. In this context, if the top layer If the architect does not fully understand the development logic of a technology, it is difficult to correctly understand the current background and future possibilities of the technology. This mechanism determines that Chinese government officials must have a strong learning ability in order to avoid prejudice and blind spots encountered in policy making.
Of course, if we carefully analyze the concept of the whole conference, it is not difficult to find that China's development and utilization of "blockchain" technology is still based on the real economy, and it is still to solve the problems in reality. This is for many investors or participants. Say, look at it rationally, don't think that as long as you use the banner of "blockchain", that is, innovation, you can swindle and swindle, it will usher in a policy rebound, and finally will be liquidated, so some entrepreneurs with very strong speculation are very strong. It is necessary to be vigilant, or to make serious breakthroughs in technology and innovation.