QKL123 market analysis | Blockchain concept 100-day limit; mainstream encryption assets rise (1028)

Abstract: Today, the A-share blockchain concept “100 shares” has a daily limit, and mainstream encryption assets have risen. Bitcoin fell back after it rushed, did not break the previous day's high point, the strong performance of the altcoin, short-term large-capacity power adjustment.

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According to QKL123 statistics, at 13:00 on October 28, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 18.419.59 billion yuan, the total market value of 24 hours increased or decreased by +5.37%, the total turnover was 856.609 billion yuan, and the total turnover changed by +9.34%. Market activity has increased significantly. The Babbitt Composite Index reported 13130.45 points, with a 24-hour up/down of +5.71%, reflecting a rapid rise in the broader market; the Bitcoin Strength Index was reported at 101.51 points, with a 24-hour up/down of +0.75%, and the relative performance of Bitcoin in the entire market became stronger; The Alternative sentiment index was 52, a slight increase from yesterday (50), and the market sentiment was neutral.

Among the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), TRX has the largest increase in 24 hours (+28.88%), and XRP has the smallest increase in 24 hours (+0.63%). The USDT has risen and fallen to +0.38% for 24 hours. The current net inflow of funds today is 4,498.3 million yuan, which is opposite to yesterday. The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Discount Index is reported at 100.65, with a 24-hour up/down of +0.09%.

In the past day, Bitcoin's Google search relative value (peak 51) has fallen back from the previous value (peak 57), approaching a one-month high. The top seven countries in the heat are Nigeria (100), Austria (51), Switzerland (48), Germany (47), Ghana (47), the Netherlands (45) and South Africa (45). In the past week, the Baidu search index of Bitcoin increased by 70% year-on-year, with an overall increase of 83% from the previous month and a recent peak on the 26th. In the past day, the global Ethereum's Google search relative value (peak 72) dropped slightly from the previous value (peak 73), higher than the one-month average.

Analyst's point of view:

On October 25th, the blockchain technology was elevated by domestic high-level enterprises, which was emphasized as an important breakthrough for independent innovation of core technologies, and highlighted the integration and application of emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence and Internet of Things. In view of the policy bias towards the blockchain industry, the domestic market has a positive expectation for the blockchain sector: after the opening of the A-share market today, the blockchain concept is now “100-share” daily limit.

At present, blockchain technology is gradually accepted by the mainstream due to its objectivity (technical principle). However, for cryptographic assets such as Bitcoin, due to its more complexities (such as decentralization, currency de-nationalization, etc.) and the lack of information available to the public, the public's understanding of it often tends to be biased. For emerging things such as Bitcoin, we should look at it with a developmental perspective and look forward to being accepted by the public one day.

First, the spot BTC market

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Affected by good news, the previous day’s bitcoin volume dropped to a maximum of $10,370 and then fell back. Today, BTC once again rushed, but was blocked at $99,000, and short-term callback was the main force. On the daily line, BTC returned to the top of the 200-day moving average and is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term.

Fund face

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As of 15:00, BTC's net outflow of funds today was 2,17,736,900 yuan. Among them, the over-single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 489.57 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 41.31 million yuan, in the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow of 82.612 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 45398.20 million. The market has a large net outflow of medium-sized funds.

2. Fundamentals

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Yesterday, the average calculation power of BTC's entire network was 84.25 EH/s, which was lower than the previous day, close to the historical high, and the long-term upward trend has not changed; the number of active addresses on the chain was 508,300, which was significantly lower than the previous day, nearly one month ago. The low point; the trading volume on the chain was 679,900, which was lower than the previous day, which was close to the one-month average; the number of coins destroyed was 4,954,100 (historically small), which was lower than the previous day, and the long-term uptrend was not destroyed.

Second, the spot ETH market

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Today, ETH is down to 189 US dollars and then down. Currently, the performance is not as good as the broader market; ETH/BTC trading is slightly oscillated in the recent low position, and the short-term linkage is dominated.

Fund face

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As of 15:00, ETH's net outflow of funds today was 1701.814 million yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow is 15.26 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow is 44.485 million yuan, and the medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow of 947.80 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 189.19 million yuan. There are certain differences in the market, mainly based on the net outflow of small orders.

2. Fundamentals

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Observing DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp decreased slightly. The game application My Crypto Heroes has 24 hours of active users 2.9k, 24 hours change -4.97%; financial application MakerDAO's 24-hour active users 2.9k, 24 hours change +3.53%; quiz application Playtowin.io 24-hour active users The number is 975, 24 hours change -2.89%.

Third, the spot LTC market

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In the early hours of the morning and this morning, LTC rushed for about 62 US dollars and then fell back. It was blocked for a short time and is now shrinking.

Fund face

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As of 15:00, the net inflow of LTC funds today was 3,385,600 yuan. Among them, the net inflow of super large single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 59.12 million yuan, the net outflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 1326.65 yuan, and the net inflow of medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) 890.501 million yuan, a small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 10105.40 million. There are differences in the market, with a large outflow of small orders.

2. Fundamentals

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Yesterday, the average net computing power of LTC was 190.99TH/s, which continued to decline from the previous day, close to the low point of eight months. After the halving of the block reward on August 05, the computing power has declined. There is no sign of recovery. Although it has not fallen below the low of the beginning of the year, the risk of stamping is greater. The number of active addresses on the LTC chain (48,700) was slightly lower than the previous day, close to a one-month low; the number of coins destroyed (798.87 million, historically small), the long-term trend was not destroyed.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

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Today, EOS dropped to a maximum of $3.54 and fell back. Although it did not break the previous day's high, it was slightly stronger in a short time.

Fund face

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As of 15:00, EOS's net outflow of funds today was 433,362,200 yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 195,200 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 47.427 million yuan, in the middle (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow of 5,212,600 yuan, the small outflow (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 33,479,200 yuan. The market is mostly net outflows of small orders.

2. Fundamentals

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According to DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp has slightly rebounded. The EOS Dynasty's 24-hour user number is 3.1k, which is -2.00% compared with yesterday; the number of 24-hour active users who use Dice is 2.5k, which is +14.98% compared with yesterday; the number of 24-hour active users using Newdex is 1.3k. Yesterday changed +2.95%; data application Lumeos's 24-hour active users 779, compared with yesterday's change -7.37%.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is improving. At present, the high probability is in the stage of partial adjustment. The mad cow market is likely to arrive in the next one to two years. The relative price of the BTC of the smart contract platform leader ETH, the cottage coin LTC, and the DPoS leader EOS is close to the low of the year and can be properly configured.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

At present, Bitcoin has returned to the top of the 200-day moving average. If the position is not heavy, it will be retreated to about 9,000 US dollars.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

In a short period of time, the increase is large, and back-to-back support can be followed by small positions.

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VI. Appendix – Index Interpretation

1. Babbitt Composite Index

The Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) consists of the largest and most representative Tokens in the global market for existing blockchains to reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain Token market.

2. Bitcoin strength index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the conversion of Bitcoin in the entire Token market, which in turn reflects the competitive strength of Bitcoin in the market and is used to measure the extent to which Bitcoin changes the relative price of a basket of Tokens. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger the bitcoin in the Token market.

3.Alternative sentiment index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects the emotional changes in the market, with 0 meaning “extreme fear” and 100 meaning “extreme greed”. The indicators include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), trend (10%).

4.USDT Off-exchange Discount Index

The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. An index of 100 indicates USDT parity, an index greater than 100 indicates a USDT premium, and a value less than 100 indicates a USDT discount.

5. Google search trend

This refers to Google web search data results, the relative value of the search in the specified time and region: the hottest record of 100, the heat accounted for the highest half of 50, there is not enough data of 0. Note: The higher the score in a country, the higher the percentage of search terms in all local search terms, and does not mean the absolute number of searches.

6. Net inflow of funds (out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds from the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow of funds and the outflow of funds on the global exchange (not including false transactions), positive values ​​indicate net inflows of funds, while negative values ​​indicate net outflows of funds. Among them, the turnover is calculated as the inflow of funds when the rise, and the turnover is calculated as the outflow when the decline occurs.

7. Currency Day Destruction

Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days of Bitcoin holdings. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. BTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 100 million is the maximum value; 50 to 100 million is the larger value; 10 to 50 million is the median; less than or equal to 10 million is the smaller value. LTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 500 million is the maximum value; 100 million to 500 million is the larger value; 50 to 100 million is the median; less than or equal to 50 million is the smaller value.

8. Number of active addresses on the chain

The number of active addresses on the chain refers to the number of addresses in the chain address of the block chain. Usually, this indicator can reflect the activity level of a chain of a public chain, and the demand activities under the chain such as secondary market transactions and wallet use will have a greater impact on it.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.