Viewpoints | How to make a choice for blockchain investment on the new road of change?

Nowadays, the blockchain of the mountains has been red, and the past, taking the horse class, sobbing blood. From the gray area that has been criticized, the blockchain industry has emerged as an important strategy for the country. According to China's strong mobilization ability convention, the blockchain industry will soon bloom everywhere and evolve into an ubiquitous industry. Mass education will also be promoted rapidly, and a large number of blockchain project users will be trained. It is no exaggeration to say that in the next few years, the blockchain industry will have a high probability of being like the economic development zone and the photovoltaic industry. It is widely known and passionate, from scarcity to surplus.

After making a major choice in China, which has hit the world's financial dominance, the United States on the other side of the ocean is bound to be greatly stimulated, with far-reaching effects, laying down internal contradictions of political disagreements and conflicts of interests, and achieving rapid advancement in areas including Libra. The process of the blockchain project.

After the policies of China and the United States have become clearer, other sovereign countries, including the European Union and Japan, have been racing against each other to start the policy depression effect.

In the past, we often worried about the compliance of the project. This is a sword of Damocles hanging in the complaint, because the whole world is gray, and many projects are the role of the wanderer. Nowadays, the door has been opened, and it is still necessary to tidy up before entering the room so that it can conform to the current rhythm.

However, the problems faced by future blockchain investors have changed. From the stormy gold mining to the treasure hunt in broad daylight, it has had a lasting impact. In the context of the new policy, and the resulting new changes, as an investor, how to adapt to the situation and make rational choices, Feng Qingping summarized as follows.

1. Short-term and medium-term problems

Professor Chen Chun, who gave lectures to the Central Standing Committee members, clearly pointed out that the policy clearly supports the alliance chain, but also supports the public chain to participate in the world competition.

Friends who are familiar with the blockchain know that the only difference between the alliance chain and the public chain is anti-censorship. The Ethereum network is closed to anyone and organizations. The development of the alliance chain is in line with the national conditions, can follow the rhythm of the next, and can also pave the way for the global competition of the future value Internet infrastructure. Starting from the alliance chain will not stop at the alliance chain.

Judging from the current development stage of the blockchain, it is still a chaotic period of staking. In the next few years, it will be a golden horse, a spring and autumn warring States. The alliance chain is the defender who represents the sovereign forces and is responsible for integrating the internal resources of the party. The public chain is the attacking party, the rule of the river, and even the burden of the unification of the country.

Combined with this analysis, one of the investment ideas can be determined from the time dimension: short-term investment alliance chain, medium- and long-term investment public chain.

Second, the choice of project scope

At present, there are more than 2,000 currencies that can be selected for investment, and does not include new ICO and IEO new varieties. After the spring breeze warmed into the Tusu, various financial subsidies came one after another. Various types of venture capital emerged in an endless stream. The development of blockchain technology will be in full swing. A large number of blockchain projects will emerge as the times require. However, it should be noted that it will not be allowed at present. The currency will provide equity investment opportunities.

In the face of so many choices, the painful symptoms of choice will be further exacerbated. Instead of being wrapped up in it, it is better to calm down and think about the first principle of the blockchain.

What is the problem with the blockchain?

Trust problem!

Technological innovations and practical projects around trust issues should be the focus of our investment. All the pain points needed to solve the trust problem are projects that meet the needs of the times and the market. For example, solutions to hard needs such as privacy, security, transactions, financial management, virtual machines, and data storage are just needed. A large ecological network also requires a lot of tool components. For the pain points as mentioned above, the tool components that provide leading solutions are also the choice of high investment safety factor and flexible application range.

The establishment and rise of the blockchain ecological network is also in line with the Matthew effect. Therefore, Feng Qingping recommends investing only in the head project of the track and the intermediate components required. For example, for the virtual machine project that bridges the data under the chain, Feng Qingping is more optimistic about the head project Chainlink, which works in a centralized manner.

Third, the choice of regional boundaries

The blockchain naturally has the characteristics of globalization across regions, which is better than trade. A non-expanded blockchain network has no foresight and lacks foresight. The unicorn project that will emerge in the future must be a project that spans four oceans on five continents, just like the network of Bitcoin and Ethereum.

However, this does not mean that the blockchain project is determined to have conflicts with the recent development. The first thing to solve in the blockchain project is the imminent survival problem, which is no different from other Internet projects.

From this perspective, the birthplace of the project is very important. Regions and countries with rich comprehensive resources such as resources, population, and network are the birthplaces of the future unicorns.

As for Malta, Singapore, Switzerland and other countries, it is estimated that investment is still possible, but it is not the best place to breed unicorns. In contrast, China, the United States, India and other places, with this abundant population and economic aggregate, is a country with great probability of producing unicorns.

The question is whether these countries have places to do subtractive projects. For example, the legal environment, the cultivation of entrepreneurship, etc. The belief that Indians sit on the banks of the Ganges and wait for their birth is the sub-item of engaging in entities and entrepreneurship.

Therefore, Feng Qingping chose to invest in the blockchain projects of China and the United States in thinking about this issue. In terms of emotional color, he tends to invest in China. Especially in the south of the Hu Weiyong line, the relationship between politics and business is harmonious, the technical ability is outstanding, and the team quality is excellent.

China's high-level aggressive leadership, strong policy resources, rich potential user base, good underlying infrastructure, strong sense of innovation and entrepreneurship, can breed a group of unicorns in the blockchain world, which is the most in the world. A place with hope and potential.

Fourth, the risk problem

Although the situation is very good, the process of development of things will never go straight, and there will still be some pits in the new situation.

1. The risk of projects in the payment field has increased. The digital currency that the main payment will inevitably collide with the stable and sovereign coins issued by sovereign institutions and multinational corporations, and thus will be suppressed. It is foreseeable that the forthcoming DCEP of the People's Bank of China is a prelude to the era of all kinds of sovereign currency bloody hurricanes. For example, the main payment of tokens such as XRP will face encirclement and competition from unprecedented power. Hayek of the Austrian liberal economics school believes that private individuals can also issue currency and participate in the competition of currencies issued by sovereign institutions. Feng Qingping recognizes his views and will not implement them as an investment path in the short term. God fights, if you don't want to be accidentally injured, we can choose to stand farther.

The final decision-making power of the competition results is in the hands of power for a short time. Otherwise, the international conference held in the New Hampshire Forest in 1944 should be the launch of Maynard, the world currency that transcends sovereignty. The United Kingdom, represented by Keynes, because its program is more fair and close to the future.

2. The privacy currency needs to be treated with caution. Privacy, should be a functional option, integrated into the blockchain ecosystem, and should not be a product. Privacy, if it is a product, is seriously conflicted with the real-world operational logic and is not seen by people with sharp tools. There is a need for privacy in the world, but purely as a private currency, Feng Qingping believes that it will only exist in niche people, such as the dark network and special people. Because of its lack of a broad audience base, it has no conditions to develop into a unicorn. Monroe, Dash, Big Coin, the new era of Grin, beam and other major privacy currencies, the future is not an issue.

3. The theme of the + blockchain is a pseudo-proposition. Under the policy call, the dragons and snakes move, and they have launched the + blockchain activities of the industry and the company, lest they not fall behind with the blockchain. We know that it is never a slogan to promote the development of things, but the original motivation, and the inner crisis of unforgettable feelings. Not every industry needs a +blockchain, implementing chain reforms, and future currency reforms, and not every individual has the operational conditions and capabilities. In the history of the resurrection, under the vigorous + Internet activities, except for Suning Appliance, it is rare. Facts have proved that the past + Internet is a pseudo-proposition, and the + blockchain that is swarming is also a pseudo-proposition. The entrepreneurial innovation of the blockchain can only be engraved with the blockchain in the bones, and the person who is thinking of the blockchain in the brain is finished. . From the perspective of investment, it is simple and complicated, and many projects are just a part of the fun. Although the tuyere is coming, it is definitely not a pig that can fly.

4. The blockchain winter has not yet arrived. According to Gartner Geithner's latest graph, the current blockchain should be in a progressive trough. It should be noted that the extent to which the industry bubble has completely shattered has not yet been achieved.

From the previous few days, when the policy came, the country’s currency rose, and the unscrupulous thing was that some of the founders’ lost project tokens had risen by 50%, which can be seen in the market’s enthusiasm and blindness.

In the next few years, a large number of projects will continue to be produced. However, the world of blockchain is still the logic of the strong. The winners can't afford to eat so many projects, so Feng Qingping believes that a large number of projects will not continue to survive. A high probability will die. For example, in the field of public chains, there are already hundreds of them, which is too crowded.

Before the 24th of this month, Feng Qingping observed that many domestic blockchain projects had low morale, team funds were stretched, and the project faced a life-and-death test. In this case, the recovery of the cardiotonic agent was obtained, but if there is no inherent Competitiveness, and precise strategic arrangements, the so-called sunshine can not save all sentient beings. On the contrary, it will cultivate more competitive players with late-comer advantage. Value return is an eternal law and elimination rule.

In the industry formed by the blockchain industry, it will be reshuffled globally, which will eventually lay the groundwork. So who can be born and who will die? Who will be the rest?

From a macroscopic point of view, according to Zhou Tianwang’s "Oscillation Cycle Theory", 2019 is a year of annihilation. When it belongs to the era of depression, objectively examining, the GDP growth rate is positive in front of the country, there are indeed few, the world. It is not easy to operate.

From an investment point of view, in this seemingly sunny day, all the dangerous actions are done, and the gentleman does the work all day long, and in the evening, in any case, we keep a certain amount of cash in our hands.