QKL123 market analysis | risk aversion has eased; Britain's Brexit twists and turns (1029)

Abstract: Today, the market has slightly declined, but the strong performance of the altcoin has eased the market risk aversion. Yesterday, the Brexit was postponed again, and the Prime Minister proposed that the early elections should be rejected again. The uncertainty of the Brexit is still relatively large.

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According to QKL123 statistics, at 13:00 on October 29, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 1805.524 billion yuan, the total market value of 24-hour increased or decreased by -1.47%, the total turnover was 702.371 billion yuan, and the total turnover changed -11.57%. Market activity has declined. The Babbitt Composite Index reported 12990.45 points, up 24 hours to -0.81%, reflecting a slight decline in the broader market; the Bitcoin Strength Index reported 99.05 points, 24 hours up or down -2.93%, and the relative performance of Bitcoin in the entire market weakened. The risk aversion has eased; the Alternative sentiment index was 54, which was slightly higher than yesterday (52), and the market sentiment was still neutral.

Among the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), BCH had the largest increase in 24 hours (+7.82%), and BTC had the largest decline in 24 hours (-2.23%). USDT has risen and fallen to +0.00% in 24 hours. The current net inflow of funds today is 12.64215 million yuan, which is significantly higher than yesterday. USDC has risen and fallen to -0.18% in 24 hours. The current net inflow of funds today is 3,545,500 yuan, which is lower than yesterday. The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index was reported at 100.49, with a 24-hour rise to -0.24%.

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In the past day, Bitcoin's Google search relative value (peak 53) fell slightly from the previous value (peak 54), approaching a one-month high. The top seven countries in the heat are Nigeria (100), Germany (50), South Africa (50), Austria (48), Switzerland (47), Ghana (43) and the Netherlands (42). Among the related topics, Bitcoin Group's search volume increased first, and it is a German company specializing in crypto assets and blockchain technology. In the past day, the global Ethereum's Google search relative value (peak 76) has rebounded from the previous value (peak 72), higher than the one-month average.

Analyst's point of view:

Bitcoin Group SE, which owns Bitcoin.de, the largest and regulated cryptocurrency trading platform in Germany. In December last year, the company acquired the investment bank Tremmel, making it a bank-licensed institution that will provide services such as Bitcoin ATMs this year. According to another report, in the past year, the number of global Bitcoin ATMs installed was 1,900, an increase of 50% from the previous month; the current Bitcoin ATMs are mainly distributed in North America (76.3%) and Europe (19.7%).

Yesterday, the EU agreed to extend the Brexit deadline to January 31 next year. Britain's Brexit has been twisted and twisted, and the two-year Brexit negotiations have been postponed again this year. This month, the EU has agreed to the new Brexit agreement, but because the Brexit program has once again reached a stalemate in the British Parliament, Prime Minister Johnson was forced to request an extension and will not leave the European Union at the end of the month (original deadline). On the whole, the risk of hard Brexit has declined, but the British Parliament rejected the early general election proposed by Prime Minister Johnson (the election was favorable to the adoption of the agreement), which added uncertainty to the progress of Brexit.

In a short period of time, safe-haven assets such as gold fell slightly. In addition, at the end of the month, the Federal Reserve made interest rate decisions. If there is weak economic data or superimposed monetary loose signals, it will benefit the Bitcoin market.

First, the spot BTC market

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Today's BTC dropped to a low of $9,160 and then rose. It is currently oscillating around $9,500, with a short-term callback. At present, BTC is back above the 200-day moving average and is expected to continue to rise in the short term.

Fund face

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As of 15:00, BTC's net outflow of funds today was 19,372,500 yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 18,667,500 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 28,065,300 yuan, in the middle (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow of 258.85 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 30.846 million yuan. There are differences in the market, with a large net inflow of large single funds.

2. Fundamentals

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Yesterday, the average calculation power of BTC's entire network was 86.70 EH/s, which was slightly higher than the previous day, close to the historical high. The long-term upward trend has not changed; the number of active addresses on the chain is 749,900, which is significantly higher than the previous day, nearly one month. The high point; the trading volume on the chain was 1,941,500, which was a significant increase from the previous day, which was the highest point in the past month; the number of coins destroyed in the day was 1,139,790 (the historical median), which was higher than the previous day, and there was a certain selling pressure in the short term. The long-term upward trend has not been destroyed.

Second, the spot ETH market

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In the early hours of the morning, ETH bottomed out to $180 and then rebounded. The ETH/BTC trading pair rose slightly, and the short-term performance was slightly stronger.

Fund face

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As of 15:00, ETH's net outflow of funds today was 57,300 yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 20.07625 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 38.501 million yuan, the middle of the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net Inflow of 82.116 million yuan, small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 99.888 million yuan. There are serious differences in the market, with a large outflow of small orders.

2. Fundamentals

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Observing DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp decreased slightly. The game application My Crypto Heroes has 24 hours of active users 3k, 24 hours change -1.33%; financial application MakerDAO's 24-hour active users 2.1k, 24 hours change -3.62%; quiz application Playtowin.io 24 hours active users 961, 24 hours change – 1.74%.

Third, the spot LTC market

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Yesterday, LTC rushed to 62 US dollars and then fell back. It briefly returned to the vicinity of 60 US dollars and oscillated.

Fund face

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As of 15:00, the net outflow of LTC funds today was 36,420,570 yuan. Among them, the net outflow of super large single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 10,819,580 yuan, the net outflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 2,825.14 yuan, and the net outflow of medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) 5,672.15 million yuan, a small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 17103.70 million. Market capital outflows hit a new high in the week, with a large outflow of small orders.

2. Fundamentals

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Yesterday, the average computing power of LTC's entire network was 231.09TH/s, which continued to decline from the previous day, close to the low point of eight months. After the halving of the block reward on August 05, the computing power has declined. There is no sign of recovery. Although it has not fallen below the low of the beginning of the year, the risk of stamping is greater. The number of active addresses on the LTC chain (57,200) was slightly higher than the previous day, close to a one-month low; the transaction volume on the chain was 779.81 million, a significant increase from the previous day, which was a month high; the number of coins destroyed (19,166,300, The historical value is small) and the long-term trend has not been destroyed.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

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Yesterday, EOS dropped to a maximum of $3.54 and then fell back. It shrank around 3.3 dollars, and it was relatively strong for a short time.

Fund face

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As of 15:00, EOS's net outflow of funds today was 39,096,300 yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow is 5,926,700 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow is 3,865,500 yuan, and the medium (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow of 28.5751 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 8.18 million yuan. The market is mostly net outflows.

2. Fundamentals

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According to DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp has declined. The EOS Dynasty's 24-hour user number is 3.1k, which is -1.96% compared with yesterday. The number of 24-hour active users who use Dice is 2.8k, which is -5.68% compared with yesterday. The number of 24-hour active users using Newdex is 1.5k. Yesterday's change +8.10%; data application Lumeos's 24-hour active users 662, a change of -16.31% from yesterday.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is improving. At present, the high probability is in the stage of partial adjustment. The mad cow market is likely to arrive in the next one to two years. The relative price of the BTC of the smart contract platform leader ETH, the cottage coin LTC, and the DPoS leader EOS is close to the low of the year and can be properly configured.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

At present, Bitcoin returns to the top of the 200-day moving average. If the position is not heavy, the bargain can be appropriately increased.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

Short-term back support can be used to make small positions.

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VI. Appendix – Index Interpretation

1. Babbitt Composite Index

The Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) consists of the largest and most representative Tokens in the global market for existing blockchains to reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain Token market.

2. Bitcoin strength index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the conversion of Bitcoin in the entire Token market, which in turn reflects the competitive strength of Bitcoin in the market and is used to measure the extent to which Bitcoin changes the relative price of a basket of Tokens. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger the bitcoin in the Token market.

3.Alternative sentiment index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects the emotional changes in the market, with 0 meaning “extreme fear” and 100 meaning “extreme greed”. The indicators include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), trend (10%).

4.USDT Off-exchange Discount Index

The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. An index of 100 indicates USDT parity, an index greater than 100 indicates a USDT premium, and a value less than 100 indicates a USDT discount.

5. Google search trend

This refers to Google web search data results, the relative value of the search in the specified time and region: the hottest record of 100, the heat accounted for the highest half of 50, there is not enough data of 0. Note: The higher the score in a country, the higher the percentage of search terms in all local search terms, and does not mean the absolute number of searches.

6. Net inflow of funds (out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds from the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow of funds and the outflow of funds on the global exchange (not including false transactions), positive values ​​indicate net inflows of funds, while negative values ​​indicate net outflows of funds. Among them, the turnover is calculated as the inflow of funds when the rise, and the turnover is calculated as the outflow when the decline occurs.

7. Currency Day Destruction

Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days of Bitcoin holdings. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. BTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 100 million is the maximum value; 50 to 100 million is the larger value; 10 to 50 million is the median; less than or equal to 10 million is the smaller value. LTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 500 million is the maximum value; 100 million to 500 million is the larger value; 50 to 100 million is the median; less than or equal to 50 million is the smaller value.

8. Number of active addresses on the chain

The number of active addresses on the chain refers to the number of addresses in the chain address of the block chain. Usually, this indicator can reflect the activity level of a chain of a public chain, and the demand activities under the chain such as secondary market transactions and wallet use will have a greater impact on it.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.