QKL123 market analysis | short-term V-shaped rebound, the market fell slightly (1101)

Abstract: So far, the market has retreated slightly, and Bitcoin has performed relatively strong, and XLM has clearly increased. Yesterday's news, fermenting President Trump's impeachment case, gold has risen in a short time, but at present it is unlikely to be impeached.

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According to QKL123 statistics, at 13:00 on November 1, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 175.353 billion yuan, the total market value of 24-hour increased or decreased by -0.38%, the total turnover was 606.437 billion yuan, and the total turnover changed by -3.14%. Market activity has declined. The Babbitt Composite Index reported 12,549.58 points, a 24-hour rise to -0.45%, reflecting a slight decline in the broader market; the Bitcoin Strength Index reported 97.77 points, a 24-hour up/down +0.96%, and the relative performance of Bitcoin in the entire market was slightly Stronger; the Alternative sentiment index was 49, slightly lower than yesterday (50), and the market sentiment was still neutral.

Among the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), BSV had the largest decline in 24 hours (-4.73%), and XLM had the largest increase in 24 hours (+9.49%). The USDT has risen and fallen to -0.09% in 24 hours. The current net inflow of funds today is 83.421 million yuan, which is significantly lower than yesterday. The USDC has risen and fallen to -0.06% in 24 hours. The current net inflow of funds today is 3,175,300 yuan, which is significantly lower than yesterday. The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index was reported at 100.36, with a 24-hour rise and fall of -0.05%.

In the past day, Bitcoin's Google search relative value (peak 43) dropped slightly from the previous value (peak 44), higher than the one-month average. The top seven countries in the heat are Nigeria (100), Ghana (42), Switzerland (41), South Africa (41), Germany (40), Austria (39) and the Netherlands (32). In the past day, the global Ethereum's Google search relative value (peak 65) fell slightly from the previous value (peak 67), below the one-month average.

Analyst's point of view:

Yesterday, the US House of Representatives voted to pass Trump's impeachment investigation procedure. This is another heavy news since the official launch of the Trump impeachment investigation in September. Short-term US stocks are under pressure and gold has risen. After the vote is passed, the case will be transferred to the Senate for investigation and trial, and will eventually be voted on by the Senate and the House of Representatives. The impeachment was the third presidential impeachment in US history, and the first two (Clinton and Johnson) held the presidency in the final voting session. In addition, Nixon was once impeached for the "Watergate Incident" but resigned before the House of Representatives voted.

The bombing of Trump may have an impact on the Bitcoin market: the president’s impeachment investigation will bring a lot of uncertainty. If it causes further political and economic turmoil in the United States, it will bring safe-haven assets such as gold and bitcoin. In addition, if Trump is successfully impeached, it may produce indirect benefits (reduce the impact of negative evaluation): Trump has sent a tweet saying that bitcoin is not a currency but an "air coin". Accused Libra is unreliable.

However, as far as the current findings and progress are concerned, it is difficult for Congress to get enough votes (2/3 impeachment) in the final vote because the Republican Party in the Senate has a majority (which will favor Trump), so Trump is impeached and stepped down. The probability is small, but does not rule out the variables brought about by subsequent development.

First, the spot BTC market

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At 18 o'clock yesterday, the BTC dropped to a low of 8,960 US dollars and then increased slightly, but the highest rushed to 9,400 US dollars and then fell back. It is currently fluctuating around 9100 US dollars.

Fund face

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As of 15:00, BTC's net outflow of funds today was 103,230,760 yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 154,485,500 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 106,202,200 yuan, in the middle (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net Outflow of 62,600,500 yuan, small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 145,402,900 yuan. The market is mostly net outflows.

2. Fundamentals

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Yesterday, the average calculation power of BTC's entire network was 98.45 EH/s, which was higher than the previous day. It was close to the one-month average, and the long-term upward trend has not changed. The number of active addresses on the chain was 703,100, which was lower than the previous day, nearly one month. The average value; the trading volume on the chain was 1,144,300, which was an increase from the previous day, close to a one-month high; the number of coins destroyed in the day was 13.5684 million (historical median), which was significantly higher than the previous day, and the long-term uptrend was not destroyed.

Second, the spot ETH market

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Yesterday, ETH took a V-word and then shrank down. It is currently oscillating above $180. The ETH/BTC transaction continues to fluctuate slightly, and the short-term performance is slightly weak.

Fund face

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As of 15:00, ETH's net outflow of funds today was 28,202,300 yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 356,200 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 18.745 million yuan, in the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net Outflow of 22,010,400 yuan, small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 24,097,000 yuan. The market is dominated by net outflows of small orders.

2. Fundamentals

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Observing DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp has decreased. Game application My Crypto Heroes's 24-hour active users 2.8k, 24 hours change +3.92%; financial application MakerDAO 24-hour active users 1.3k, 24-hour change -8.47%; quiz application X2BET.WIN 24-hour active users The number is 754, 24 hours change -0.79%.

Third, the spot LTC market

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Similar to the trend of ETH, the current LTC is at $58, but the relative performance is slightly stronger, and short-term linkage is mainly based on Bitcoin.

Fund face

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As of 15:00, the net outflow of LTC funds today was 92.8902 million yuan. Among them, the overflow of large single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net flow of 57.107 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 1424.41 yuan, the net inflow of medium (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) 5478.43 million yuan, a small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net out of 19,051,100 yuan. There are certain differences in the market, with a large outflow of small orders.

2. Fundamentals

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Yesterday, the average net computing power of LTC was 203.39TH/s, which was a rebound from the previous day and was close to the low of eight months. After the halving of the block reward on August 05, the computing power has declined. There is no sign of recovery. Although it has not fallen below the low of the beginning of the year, the risk of stamping is greater. The number of active addresses on the LTC chain (57,700) increased from the previous day and was lower than the one-month average; the transaction volume on the LTC chain (9.5538 million) increased significantly from the previous day to a high of nearly two months; the number of coins destroyed was 1903,900. (Historically smaller values), the long-term trend has not been destroyed.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

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Yesterday EOS rebounded to 3.3 US dollars and then contracted down. Currently at around 3.2 US dollars, continue to link.

Fund face

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As of 15:00, EOS's net outflow of funds today was 199,199,100 yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow was 2,136,600 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow was 5,364,200 yuan, and the medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The inflow of 1,681,900 yuan, the small outflow (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 19,960,600 yuan. There are differences in the market, with a large outflow of small orders.

2. Fundamentals

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According to DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp has declined. The EOS Dynasty's 24-hour user number is 3.1k, which is +1.27% compared with yesterday. The number of 24-hour active users who use Dice is 2.7k, which is -38.00% compared with yesterday. The number of 24-hour active users using Newdex is 1.8k. Yesterday changed +22.32%.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is improving. At present, the high probability is in the stage of partial adjustment. The mad cow market is likely to arrive in the next one to two years. The relative price of the BTC of the smart contract platform leader ETH, the cottage coin LTC, and the DPoS leader EOS is close to the low of the year and can be properly configured.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

At present, Bitcoin returns to the 200-day moving average. If the position is not heavy, it can be bargain-hunting.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

You can follow up with a small position and break the stop loss.

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VI. Appendix – Index Interpretation

1. Babbitt Composite Index

The Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) consists of the largest and most representative Tokens in the global market for existing blockchains to reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain Token market.

2. Bitcoin strength index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the conversion of Bitcoin in the entire Token market, which in turn reflects the competitive strength of Bitcoin in the market and is used to measure the extent to which Bitcoin changes the relative price of a basket of Tokens. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger the bitcoin in the Token market.

3.Alternative sentiment index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects the emotional changes in the market, with 0 meaning “extreme fear” and 100 meaning “extreme greed”. The indicators include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), trend (10%).

4.USDT Off-exchange Discount Index

The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. An index of 100 indicates USDT parity, an index greater than 100 indicates a USDT premium, and a value less than 100 indicates a USDT discount.

5. Google search trend

This refers to Google web search data results, the relative value of the search in the specified time and region: the hottest record of 100, the heat accounted for the highest half of 50, there is not enough data of 0. Note: The higher the score in a country, the higher the percentage of search terms in all local search terms, and does not mean the absolute number of searches.

6. Net inflow of funds (out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds from the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow of funds and the outflow of funds on the global exchange (not including false transactions), positive values ​​indicate net inflows of funds, while negative values ​​indicate net outflows of funds. Among them, the turnover is calculated as the inflow of funds when the rise, and the turnover is calculated as the outflow when the decline occurs.

7. Currency Day Destruction

Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days of Bitcoin holdings. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. BTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 100 million is the maximum value; 50 to 100 million is the larger value; 10 to 50 million is the median; less than or equal to 10 million is the smaller value. LTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 500 million is the maximum value; 100 million to 500 million is the larger value; 50 to 100 million is the median; less than or equal to 50 million is the smaller value.

8. Number of active addresses on the chain

The number of active addresses on the chain refers to the number of addresses in the chain address of the block chain. Usually, this indicator can reflect the activity level of a chain of a public chain, and the demand activities under the chain such as secondary market transactions and wallet use will have a greater impact on it.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.