This article does not constitute any investment advice, investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market!
Ethereum is currently the well-deserved altcoin coin, and is also the belief of many people. After several years of construction, ETH 2.0 has also seen the dawn, but I poured a cold water, behind the seemingly brilliant, the Ethereum Empire is quietly falling. Maybe it's already dusk!
Ethereum faces many problems:
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First, the user status of Ethereum will grow indefinitely, which will cause the node to be overwhelmed
In order to adapt to the smart contract, Ethereum does not adopt the UTXO mode of Bitcoin, but uses the account mode to store user information and smart contract information. All users and smart contracts will merge to produce a world state, which is stored in the Ethereum node. Although the account model solves the UTXO stateless defect, as the user and smart contract grows, it will cause the world state of Ethereum to expand rapidly. If it is not controlled, it will not be able to bear the situation in the future.
By the way, the bitcoin UTXO mode has a storage requirement that you can predict. The limit is that each UTXO is 1 Cong, which limits the total amount of UTXO and limits the node storage limit. Therefore, the theory in this mode You can serve an unlimited number of users without causing the node to crash, and you have to sigh the wisdom of Nakamoto.
Second, Ethereum only charges for calculations, there is no cost to store data, which will result in unlimited storage costs for nodes.
This is an old problem. When Ethereum originally designed the economic model, each step of calculation must charge ETH as the operating fee, but the storage is not charged. After the data is placed on the chain, it can be stored for free forever, and its cost is actually transferred. When it reaches the node, it will continue for a long time, and eventually the cost of the storage block will become larger and larger until the node can not bear it.
Third, the engineering management of the Ethereum Foundation has lost control
Let's not mention the snail-like upgrade schedule of Ethereum in the past two years, nor the engineering roadmap of ETH 2.0, which is constantly changing, and the upgrade of Constantinople in early 2019.
The upgrade was postponed three times from October 2018 to March 2019, and each time it was a big fan of the upgrade date. When it was upgraded, it found a loophole or defect, so I had to rework it. This code engineering management The ability is really worrying!
Many people say that the project extension is not normal? Not the same, this is not a simple project delay, but the delay caused by software code quality defects, compared to many of the lower-ranking altcoins, rarely occur 3 times online failure!
I believe that people who have done software engineering management pay attention to software quality management. Before a system goes online, it will conduct strict code auditing, unit testing, joint testing, stress testing, performance testing and other quality control to ensure the smooth operation of the project. online.
Ethereum's three times of failure to go online, even the qualified software engineering management is not considered, the management level has become the second-rate of the currency!
4. The root cause of all problems in Ethereum is the failure of the governance model.
In fact, the above problems are not unsolvable. The infinite growth of user status can be solved through the account leasing mode. Storage wireless growth can be solved by increasing linear storage costs, software engineering is simpler, and a good management team can be found.
The root cause is the failure of the Ethereum governance model.
When I was talking about the core group in Ethereum, many people did not recognize it. I said that the Ethereum Foundation is working hard, the Ethereum Foundation is working, and the Ethereum Foundation is decentralized.
But I want to ask all the people who hold Ethereum, who is deciding how to run the Ethereum Foundation? Who can decide which proposal can be adopted by Ethereum? Who can elect members of the Ethereum Foundation? What is the impact of the Ethereum Foundation doing well or doing badly on the people of the Foundation? What is the relationship? Why does the Ethereum Foundation promote the development of Ethereum free of charge because they are all saints?
All of the above have nothing to do with holding ETH holders.
To put it simply, the interests of the Ethereum Foundation and the prosperity of Ethereum and the interests of all ETH holders are completely decoupled!
The Ethereum Foundation has no motivation and courage to break through the pressures of various stakeholders and create a brand new ETH2.0. Like Yahoo, he has taken up the Internet dividend and earned his leading position with luck. He will lose his strength in the morning and evening.
I know that many people will refute me, how good the Ethereum ecology, technology, and community are, but I want to say, look again in 3 years!
In any case, Ethereum has opened up a new world and made great contributions to the development of the blockchain. I want to pay tribute to all the staff of the Ethereum team.
Don't worry, the decline of the Ethereum Empire does not mean the decline of the blockchain. In the future, there will be a new blockchain leader to replace it, triggering a new upsurge!
There are four series of future thinking series in the currency circle, namely (1) the twilight of the Ethereum Empire, (2) whether BTC can be independent, (3) who will defeat Ethereum, and (4) who we will earn in the currency circle. money? Welcome attention!
About the author: East of Beijing, public number: bjzdblockchain. Senior blockchain investor, engaged in technical research work.
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