Original: Sun Vice President
Facebook founder Zuckerberg probably wouldn’t have thought that his remarks at the congressional hearing to position the Chinese financial system as a potential competitor would trigger such a drastic response on the other side of the Pacific. In just less than 48 hours, China's top layer made a clear statement on blockchain technology. And three days later, a well-known former senior official mentioned the China Digital Money (DCEP) plan in a high-profile financial forum and publicly expressed his disapproval of Libra.
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At this point, regardless of the previous development ideas, for now, the confrontation between China's DCEP and Facebook will be very obvious.
As a result, it naturally leads to a question: who has a big advantage in the collision between DCEP and Libra, and how should the parties break the next step?
01 DCEP Why is the fire line? A sense of oppression from the powerful ecology of Libra
After the release of DCEP related information, many voices in the industry focused on the two-tier operating system adopted by DCEP. However, strictly speaking, this is not its core competitiveness. It should be known that the real currency is actually placed in a two-tier mode of “central bank-commercial bank-general enterprise or individual”. Too much attention to DCEP's two-tier operating system is like paying too much attention to the Move computer programming language used by Libra .
So what are the most interesting goals for DCEP and Libra? In fact, it is the purchasing power and consensus of money.
The stronger the purchasing power and the higher the level of consensus, the more initiative will be in the future global money market. The generation of consensus is derived from the economic ecology behind the currency. As for the technical level and operation mode, it is very important for the normal use of money, but it is not a decisive factor in the competition of this digital currency.
To give a simple example: Many people have not been able to figure out so far. Why did the United States squeeze out the pound in the 1940s and become the world's largest sovereign currency. A lot of voices are attributed to the strength of the US military. At a deeper level, this view is certainly no problem. But it is easy to make a misunderstanding, that is, the United States is using its own force to force the world to use the dollar to settle. The fact is that the United States used its national defense forces to ensure that its territorial and economic infrastructure was not destroyed during World War II. Therefore, after World War II, through various economic structures and industrial production capacity, the various participating countries continued to export various kinds of products. Kind of reconstruction materials. To buy these materials, you must use the US dollar.
That is to say, the economic system that supports the value of the dollar after the war is the vast circulation network of materials exported by the world. The British did not have such a commodity output capability at the time, so they could only give up the dominant position of the currency.
The same is true for Bitcoin, which is well known in the circle. At present, the most mentioned bitcoin transaction, which is the most mentioned, is the " ten currency for pizza " that countless people deplore. It is precisely because Bitcoin created the tiny economic ecology of “Bitcoin-Pizza” in this transaction that more people think that Bitcoin can indeed be exchanged with French currency, thus realizing the price of Bitcoin. From 0 to 1.
As for why Bitcoin has not returned to zero for many years, the answer is closely related to economic ecology. Many of the global underground gray asset trading networks use Bitcoin as an intermediary payment tool. Nowadays, many industry v think that Bitcoin is not due to the exquisite technical characteristics, so it will not be zero in the early winter market. This is not particularly accurate. After all, even if there is a strong belief in the "coin of the elderly", many It is also impossible to thoroughly explain the specific technical principles of Bitcoin.
With this in mind, it's not hard to understand why the Libra led by Facebook raises the attention and even panic of global financial institutions. Not because of the fear of Facebook's technical power, the main reason is that the economy that supports Libra's value is too big.
Supporting Libra's economy, Farfetch, the world's largest buyer platform, Spotify, the largest streaming music platform, Uber, the largest decentralized transportation network, and Kiva, the world's first online microfinance platform. The Libra Association's leader, Facebook, has a product coverage of 2.6 billion users, which is more than one-third of the world's 7.6 billion people, and is enough to become the world's largest traffic portal.
People who know the history of mobile payment may know that the development of user payment habits can generally be divided into two stages: one is payment in a specific scenario, such as WeChat's red envelope and Alipay's Taobao payment; the second is online and offline. Payments in the full scene, such as sweeping everywhere now.
Libra has assembled so many online goods and services companies with the goal of cultivating users' digital currency payment habits in a number of specific scenarios. Once the user payment habits of the first stage are cultivated, Libra will be swept away like WeChat in the past, and it will penetrate into the scenes of life and work like the tide, so that many legal currencies including the RMB and the US dollar will be greatly increased. Marginalized.
So, as we have seen, in the face of pressure, the US Congress began to fire Libra fiercely , and the Chinese central bank began a high-profile publicity campaign for its own digital currency, and allowed some commercial banks to start trial digital currency wallet, DCEP issue. With the use can be said that the arrow is already on the string.
02 All the way to the sea VS Multinational giants gathered DCEP and Libra Who has more advantages?
In the current global commercial disputes, the launch of DCEP naturally raises a question: Who is more advantageous in these two digital currencies?
Regarding this issue, we still have to consider the economic ecology of determining the degree of currency consensus, that is, DCEP and Libra who have more potential economic ecology and richer circulation scenarios.
First look at China's DCEP, which has China's top-down support. If the official is willing, it is not only China's huge internal economic system (B-end users and C-end users), but also the goods and services between China and foreign countries. Trade (mainly B-side users) may be the circulation scenario of DCEP.
In other words, as long as there are scenes of commercial activities by Chinese companies and individual users, it will become the circulation ecology of DCEP.
On the other hand, Libra in the US is a project initiated by the enterprise. Although there are many well-known companies in the United States, it is considered that under the pressure of the policy, many heavy companies have already announced their withdrawal. Therefore, depending on the economic ecology of Libra supported by the Libra Association, the future will expand or shrink. It can be said that the future is uncertain.
However, unlike the Libra Association members, which are mostly international companies with a high degree of internationalization, DCEP's economic ecology has a clear shortcoming: the internationalization of the scene is insufficient.
Needless to say, the domestic scene is basically used by the Chinese; as for the coverage of the Belt and Road trade system, although it is gradually expanding, the international users involved are mainly B-end enterprises that have interests with China, and the use scenarios are compared. Limitations.
The advantages of DCEP are not obvious in the payment scenarios of mainstream international users, especially C-end users. The reason is simple: in the "two-step" mentioned above to cultivate user payment habits, Chinese companies are currently not even completing the first step of cultivating international users' payment habits under certain circumstances.
The main reason for not completing is that China's Internet software products have been more effective in recent years. Even head players like Alipay and WeChat have not achieved a particularly high market share in the international user community. Although products like Vibrato stand out in the international arena, the small video platform is different from Alipay and WeChat. It is more of an information flow platform, and there is a lack of support for the circulation of goods and services.
Therefore, it is difficult to have a DCEP cut-in space. In this way, when international users transfer funds in various scenarios, they will continue the original payment method, or use the new payment method provided by the domestic enterprise instead of adopting China's DCEP, just like two Chinese. Transfers between people will not basically be the same as PayPal.
03 Unexpected push for the first 5G network and smart hardware
Then, in what way will the Chinese central bank cultivate the use and payment habits of DCEP among international users? What exactly should DCEP be the best carrier?
Looking at it now, the products that can take on this task are probably not in the software field, but in the hardware field, because the degree of internationalization of China's technology hardware products is generally stronger than software products. From well-known Huawei and Xiaomi, to the "African mobile phone king" voice holdings listed in the previous period, their international market share and presence in the industry are higher than those of software providers such as Ali and Tencent.
As 5G mobile phones will undergo a large-scale update in the next few years, and China maintains a leading position in the 5G network field, it can be asserted that it is absolutely possible for China to promote DCEP to other countries through the expansion of this local intelligent hardware. . After all, today's smartphones also come with a wallet function, but because mobile phone manufacturers can only eat and sell with hardware sales, they have not improved the experience of these embedded software for a long time, resulting in many People have forgotten these products.
If you can embed DCEP in the wallet application that comes with these phones, and find ways to cultivate the DCEP payment habits in the international user community of Chinese mobile phones, and complete the first step in the “two-step” of paying habits, then in the international Above the market competition, China's DCEP is likely to not lose Libra in the United States.
From the above analysis, we can easily see that the mutual exclamation between DCEP and Libra is actually the first shot of the competition between China and the United States, the two major countries in the global digital economy.
Perhaps the short-term interaction between DCEP and Libra will not immediately appear in front of people, but a series of efforts around the digital currency landing will inevitably include blockchain, 5G network, artificial intelligence, Internet of Things. , intelligent hardware and other fronts are launched one after another. The digital economy industry, including the blockchain, will also gather a large amount of capital, talents and other resources in the next decade or even decades, becoming an important forward position for commercial competition in major countries.
The new big game of the 21st century has arrived, and we will all be involved, and few people can stay out of it.
Message Mining No. 362: What do you most expect from the national digital currency DCEP to bring to your life? Feel free to share your opinion in the message area.
『Declaration : This article is the author's independent point of view, does not represent the vernacular blockchain position, and does not constitute any investment advice or advice. You are not allowed to reprint this article by any third party without the authorization of the "Baihua Blockchain" sourced from this article. 』