The recent sell-off in Bitcoin caused its price to fall below $7,500 for the first time in May – not because of the long-term holder's submission.
Instead, research firm Delphi Digital reported that novice bitcoin investors (those holding between one and three months) caused a sharp drop in bitcoin prices in October.
“In the days after the sell-off, holders with holdings of 6-12 months and 12-18 months started activities and trading activity increased.”
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Delphi Digital uses the "Unspent Transaction Output" (UXTO) data (last move time) to classify Bitcoin. The time when Bitcoin is not moved is called "UXTO Year".
The figure below uses different colors to represent bitcoin related data: for example, a green line indicates bitcoin that has not been moved for at least a year. The black line indicates the price of bitcoin.
Delphi Digital pointed out:
“Despite the ups and downs of price and market sentiment, long-term investors have not done much this year. Bitcoin, which has not moved for at least a year, accounted for 55.6% at the beginning of the year and reached a peak of 60.8% at the end of April, currently at 58.3%.”
In addition, bitcoin, which has not moved for at least two years, currently accounts for 38.7% of total circulation supply, up from 34.6% at the beginning of the year.
However, most notably, Delphi Digital's data shows that 21.6% of Bitcoin has not changed for at least five years – a record high, up 1.1% this year.
“This is one of the short-lived cycles that differs from the real bull and bear cycle, and you won’t see long-term holders cash out when prices really take off.”
“Long-term holders will determine the top and bottom of the cycle, but short-term traders will have a greater impact on the price of the cycle as they will assess the inflow of new funds.”