QKL123 market analysis | USDT this thunder, will become black swan? (1106)

Abstract: In a short period of time, Bitcoin has a slight correction, but the market has rebounded slightly. The altcoin has performed strongly. Recently, there have been articles about the USDT manipulation market, and investors do not have to worry too much. Another two industries have good news today, and may be fermented in a short time.

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According to QKL123 statistics, at 13:00 on November 6, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 1,784.937 billion yuan, the total market value of 24-hour increased or decreased by -0.01%, the total turnover was 627.507 billion yuan, and the total turnover changed by -2.14%. Market activity has declined slightly. The Babbitt Composite Index reported 13083.59 points, up 24 hours to +0.51%, reflecting a slight rebound in the broader market; the Bitcoin strength index was 93.68 points, and the 24-hour rate was -3.09%. The relative performance of Bitcoin in the entire market has changed significantly. Weak; the Alternative sentiment index was 53, which was slightly lower than yesterday (54), and the market sentiment was neutral.

Among the top ten crypto assets in the market value (excluding USDT), EOS had the largest increase in 24 hours (+4.24%), and XLM had the largest increase in 24 hours (-1.31%). The USDT has risen and fallen to -0.58% in 24 hours. The current net inflow of funds today is 48,374,900 yuan, which is lower than yesterday. The USDC has risen and fallen to -0.33% in 24 hours. The current net inflow of funds is 1,446,500 yuan, which is significantly lower than yesterday. ; ChaiNext USDT off-market discount premium index reported 100.05, 24 hours up and down to +0.00%.

In the past day, global Bitcoin's Google search relative value (peak 91) has decreased from the previous value (peak 100), approaching a one-month high. The top seven countries in the heat are Nigeria (100), Austria (42), South Africa (41), Switzerland (40), Ghana (38), Germany (36) and the Netherlands (31). In the past day, the global Ethereum's Google search relative value (peak 71) has fallen from the previous value (peak 100), higher than the one-month average.

Analyst's point of view:

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At present, Bitcoin is above the 200-day moving average, and the market is facing a good trend. In the next half year, there will be a good expectation of halving, and the market will generally go out of the market by half (shock up). As shown in the figure, there has been an adjustment or rising phase for a period of time before the halving. Although there have been long-term positive interest rate cuts in various countries, investors still need to be alert to the occurrence of small probability events. For example, the USDT hearing, which was postponed for three months at the end of July, has no news. Recently, the USDT mine has been fermented.

This week, an article about the USDT alleged manipulation of the market, which will be published in the top financial journal The Journal of Finance, has attracted widespread attention. The paper pointed out that during the bull market in 2017, when the price fell, a “big family” on the Bitfinex (USDT related party) trading platform used USDT to purchase a large amount of bitcoin, which caused the market price to be significantly affected. Further caused a price bubble or distortion.

For this news, the market has already digested. On the one hand, the mines about Bitfinex and USDT have been released since 2017. For example, in November 2017, the New York Times reported that the USDT team may overdeliver the TEDA and use the super-priced TEDA to speculate on Bitcoin. In February 2018, the conversations between Tether and the Bitfinex team were exposed. The recordings showed that the parties were discussing bank fraud, money laundering, and even confessing financial fraud; the 2019 USDT hearing was suspected of illegal misappropriation of funds and illegal operations. On the other hand, during the bear market of 2018, such bad news will accelerate the bursting of the bubble, and there is no direct evidence that the over-the-counter Tether has recently been used to buy bitcoin.

Therefore, even if the conclusions in the paper are confirmed by conclusive evidence in the future, its impact on the current market price trend is relatively limited: short-term positive, bearer or USDT, will cause USDT to run aggressively as encrypted assets; short-term negative, lack of supervision Under the conditions, it will hit the confidence of the industry, which will cause some investors to opt out; the long-term impact is not big, and the compliance anchor currency will gradually replace the USDT position.

In addition, it is reported that there are two good news about the industry today: First, the mining that was listed as “eliminated industry” in the draft of the NDRC has been deleted in the new version; second, the chairman of the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission During the Hong Kong Financial Technology Week, he revealed that details of the new regulatory guidelines for the digital asset trading platform will be introduced and will be issued to the digital asset exchange.

First, the spot BTC market

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Yesterday, the BTC rushed to 9,500 US dollars and then fell back. Today, the volume has fluctuated. It is now around $9,400. It may be affected by the news.

Fund face

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As of 15:00, BTC's net outflow of funds today was 30,859,320 yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 787.32 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 81.94 million yuan, the middle of the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net Outflow of 181.792 million yuan, small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 12,926.30 million. There was a divergence in the market, with a net outflow of medium-sized funds.

2. Fundamentals

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Yesterday, the average calculation power of the BTC network was 94.71 EH/s, which was slightly higher than the previous day. It was close to the one-month average, and the long-term upward trend has not changed. The number of active addresses on the chain was 762,600, which was significantly higher than the previous day and nearly one month high. Point; the trading volume on the chain was 1,109,500, which was higher than the previous day and higher than the one-month average; the number of coins destroyed was 32,186,000 (the historical median), which was significantly higher than the previous day, and the long-term uptrend was not destroyed.

Second, the spot ETH market

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Recently, ETH has reached a maximum of $195, and there has been a small increase in short-term, but there has not been a significant decline. The ETH/BTC transaction has been on the upside and the short-term performance is relatively strong.

Fund face

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As of 15:00, ETH's net outflow of funds today was 23,672,440 yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 16.618 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 35.55 million yuan, the middle of the single (between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow of 190.65 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 63.53 million yuan. There is a big difference in the market, with a net outflow of medium singles.

2. Fundamentals

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Observing DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp rebounded slightly. Game application My Crypto Heroes's 24-hour active users 3.1k, 24 hours change +10.30%; financial application MakerDAO 24-hour active users 1.4k, 24-hour change -1.64%; quiz application Playtowin.io 24-hour active users The number is 1k, 24 hours change -0.49%.

Third, the spot LTC market

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In the past two days, LTC has a trend of heavy volume upwards, and its relative performance with BTC has also begun to strengthen, and it is likely to continue its strength in a short time.

Fund face

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As of 15:00, the net outflow of LTC funds today was 325.56 million yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 2,487,100 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 3,48.19 yuan, the middle of the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net outflow 3524.10 million yuan, a small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 258.28 million yuan. The market is dominated by net outflows of small orders.

2. Fundamentals

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Yesterday, the average net computing power of LTC was 189.03TH/s, which was slightly higher than the previous day and was close to the low point of eight months. After the halving of the block reward on August 05, the computing power has declined. There is no sign of recovery. Although it has not fallen below the low of the beginning of the year, the risk of stamping is high, and there may be an inflection point as the price rebounds. The number of active addresses on the LTC chain (92,800) increased from the previous day, approaching a one-month high; the number of currency days destroyed was 40,436,000 (lower historical value), an increase from yesterday.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

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At 16 o'clock yesterday, EOS has risen, and today it reached a maximum of 3.68 US dollars. It is currently on the high point of the previous few days and has a strong performance in a short time.

Fund face

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As of 15:00, EOS's net capital inflow today was 101.349 million yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow is 8,882,300 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow is 13.54 million yuan, and the medium (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The inflow of 54.408 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 4211.10 million. There are differences in the market, with a net inflow of medium singles.

2. Fundamentals

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According to DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp continues to fall, which is related to the continued congestion of the EOS network in recent days. The number of 24-hour users of the game EOS Dynasty is 2.2k, which is -0.99% compared with yesterday. The number of active users of the trading application Newdex is 1k, which is -9.74% compared with yesterday.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is improving. At present, the high probability is in the stage of partial adjustment. The mad cow market is likely to arrive in the next one to two years. The relative price of the BTC of the smart contract platform leader ETH, the cottage coin LTC, and the DPoS leader EOS is close to the low of the year and can be properly configured.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

Near the short-term turning point, bargain-hunting is the mainstay.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

Can be small position low suction high throw.

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VI. Appendix – Index Interpretation

1. Babbitt Composite Index

The Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) consists of the largest and most representative Tokens in the global market for existing blockchains to reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain Token market.

2. Bitcoin strength index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the conversion of Bitcoin in the entire Token market, which in turn reflects the competitive strength of Bitcoin in the market and is used to measure the extent to which Bitcoin changes the relative price of a basket of Tokens. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger the bitcoin in the Token market.

3.Alternative sentiment index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects the emotional changes in the market, with 0 meaning “extreme fear” and 100 meaning “extreme greed”. The indicators include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), trend (10%).

4.USDT Off-exchange Discount Index

The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. An index of 100 indicates USDT parity, an index greater than 100 indicates a USDT premium, and a value less than 100 indicates a USDT discount.

5. Google search trend

This refers to Google web search data results, the relative value of the search in the specified time and region: the hottest record of 100, the heat accounted for the highest half of 50, there is not enough data of 0. Note: The higher the score in a country, the higher the percentage of search terms in all local search terms, and does not mean the absolute number of searches.

6. Net inflow of funds (out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds from the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow of funds and the outflow of funds on the global exchange (not including false transactions), positive values ​​indicate net inflows of funds, while negative values ​​indicate net outflows of funds. Among them, the turnover is calculated as the inflow of funds when the rise, and the turnover is calculated as the outflow when the decline occurs.

7. Currency Day Destruction

Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days of Bitcoin holdings. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. BTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 100 million is the maximum value; 50 to 100 million is the larger value; 10 to 50 million is the median; less than or equal to 10 million is the smaller value. LTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 500 million is the maximum value; 100 million to 500 million is the larger value; 50 to 100 million is the median; less than or equal to 50 million is the smaller value.

8. Number of active addresses on the chain

The number of active addresses on the chain refers to the number of addresses in the chain address of the block chain. Usually, this indicator can reflect the activity level of a chain of a public chain, and the demand activities under the chain such as secondary market transactions and wallet use will have a greater impact on it.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.