On the evening of April 16, DGroup founder Zhao Dong and founder of Laibit Mine Pool Jiang Zhuer visited the ChainNode live room, sharing the analysis and views on the next round of Bitcoin market without reservation, and discussing some communities. Top topics of great concern – such as how to move the platform currency, how to treat the BSV under the currency, the possibility of mining the bitcoin in the country, whether Staking will impact PoW and the next new one that may exceed the market value of Bitcoin The vents and so on. As a special guest host, time stamp capital CEO Li Zongchong also frequently thrown sharp questions to the two guests.
This is a dialogue without a routine.
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Golden sentence highlights:
1. As long as you live long enough, the opportunity to make money behind each wave is N times larger than the opportunity to make money. Living is the most important thing. ——Zhao Dong
2. This round of bull market may be the last demographic dividend of the blockchain or bitcoin. ——Jiangzhuoer
3. The currency circle is already Black Swan Lake, so we need to pay more attention to anti-fragility. ——Jiangzhuoer
4. Mining is not an industrial production act, but a financial act. ——Jiangzhuoer
5. Bitcoin cannot be issued, and the mining machine can be issued indefinitely. ——Zhao Dong
6. You can first look at what is making money now? Trading and mining, four years ago, and now. Platform coins are a bit like disguised stocks and may be a few non-air projects. ——Zhao Dong
7. Which chain can support more users in the future, its market value is longer, which is based on user volume. – Li Zongcheng
8. Platform currency has not created new profits, but only a portion of the profits from the source of the most core economic freedom. It is an intersection between the entire blockchain and the real world, closer to the brokerage stocks, and I prefer the ones that cover the entire source. ——Jiangzhuoer
9. Bitcoin brings currency freedom, Ethereum brings equity freedom, stable currency brings legal currency freedom, document storage freedom, or media freedom may be new freedom, new opportunities. ——Jiangzhuoer
The following is the content of the dialogue, sorted by the ChainNode live broadcast , slightly deleted:
Xiao Yan: As an old man in the currency circle, how did you first get along with the bitcoin/blockchain?
Zhao Dong: I went to the garage coffee after I exited the ink weather in 2012. At the time in the garage coffee, I worked on several organizations, one of which was an open source technology group that later evolved into an open source hardware group. In the garage coffee, I have made a lot of friends, including Wu Xingchang, who is now widely known. At that time, my uncle told me "You buy Bitcoin." I asked him why he should buy Bitcoin. He said "can make money." So I bought the first bitcoin in my life with 300 yuan in Bitcoin China. After trading several times to make sure that the platform is not fake, I have bought more than 2,000 bitcoins.
Shortly after I met my uncle, I heard that there is a large holder of money called Li Xiaolai. He is an English teacher in New Oriental. I just want to call this Li Xiaolai to the garage to play. So I sent a private message to Xiaobo on Weibo, not in the name of Bitcoin. Instead, we said that we have an open source hardware team. I heard that the teacher is also doing hardware startups, so he was invited. Come and join together. Later, when I laughed, I was invited to the garage coffee, and I also had several sensational bitcoin lectures in the garage. After that, the garage slowly formed a bitcoin circle. At that time, people who played bitcoin, as well as exchanges, and various media liked to go to the garage coffee office. The old people who are now seeing the currency circle are still there. For example, the god fish, Li Lin, He Yi, and Xu Ming were all gathered in the garage coffee.
Early garage coffee
Speaking of garage coffee, I would also like to say Su Shi. I said that Su Shi is a Buddha. He is bent on building a temple and giving everyone a support for the spirit. Therefore, we often go to Su Ge now. We must have a spiritual support. We must worship Buddha often.
Jiang Zhuoer : It should be said that my enrollment process is similar to most people. More than 80% of the people are attracted in the last period of the bull market, because the final surge will have a great news effect. Let a lot of people know Bitcoin, I was attracted by the Bull Market News in October 2013.
In 2013, I was still working in Shanghai Mobile. I was involved in some cross-border payment issues, and then I found Bitcoin that I could pay for cross-border payments. When I first started researching, I was attracted by Bitcoin. Most people who are attracted to the end of the bull market, if the mind is hot, easy to pick up after the high, the bear market is lost. At that time, my mind was still sober, and did not directly spend money to buy coins, but relied on technology and earning money by mining.
By the second half of the 2013 bull market, the altcoin currency was already very hot, and it was more like the ICO hot scene in 2017. The difference was that the coins at the time could be dug directly. So I bought two video card mining machines to dig in the house, and found that some coins mining high income, and then began to rent other mining machines to dig, and then felt that the hand-work-type mining speed is too slow, so decided to build a mining pool. I resigned from Shanghai Mobile in October 2013. It took about a month to get on the Leipzig mine on January 1, 2014. Note that Leipzig is not a Litecoin mine. We not only dig the Litecoin, but also select some high-quality altcoins according to the evaluation model. We will start digging before the exchange, then go to the exchange, sell it up, sell it again, and put all the profits in Bitcoin. The form survives.
Throughout 2014 and 2015, we were all mining. In the second half of 2015, the whole market was very deserted. I was bored to write science, but I got a lot of recognition and recognition in the industry. This incident tells us that a bear market is a good time to practice internal strength, whether it is to train a team or something else. It took me more than a month to finish the 60,000-word long article "What is Bitcoin?" by October 2015. Coincidentally, the bull market has also begun.
Jiang Zhuoer knows about Copwen
Li Zongcheng: Before entering the circle, I have been doing venture capital investment, because the concept of blockchain in 2016 gradually has some voices in the venture capital circle, so I pay attention to the concept of blockchain. Later, I met Changchun. At that time, Babbitt was not big. It might be 20 people. He needs a person who knows how to invest and understand financing. My professionalism is quite compatible with this demand, so we hit it off. In February 2017, I officially joined Babbitt, responsible for investment and financing matters.
Xiao Wei: The two previous predictions on other social platforms think that the current round of the rebound is a rebound. After the rebound, it will double bottom, and then ushered in a big market before the BT halving in 2020. After halving again, After the plunge, the big bull market will be officially ushered in after the plunge. Why is this judgment made?
Zhao Dong: History will repeat itself, but it will not be repeated. At the end of 2017, I was thinking that this market should not be able to continue to rise, because the funds for new arrivals are always limited. When did the bull market collapse? I think that when the newly entered funds can't support this price, it will start to collapse. First, it will be flat for a while, and if it can't support it, it will start to go down. So at that time, I was thinking that this was exactly the same rhythm as the previous 2013, exactly the same taste. I estimate that there may be such a wave in another four years. This is the cycle. Any industry has a similar cycle. Only a real cattle company can survive through the cycle.
Li Zongcheng: Dong Shu, you just mentioned a data. If the growth of incremental funds cannot keep up with the rise in the price of the currency, it will fall. What kind of data does this incremental fund use to see its growth rate?
Zhao Dong: In fact, the most simple way to increase funds is to look at the activity level of the chain, as well as some new users of the website. At the end of 2017, some exchanges can increase the number of users to 10,000, which is unbelievable, because apps like Bitcoin, which have strong financial attributes, are still very small. How can there be such a large number of new users? . In the stock market, when the number of new opening is the most, it will almost collapse. The bitcoin market is similar. People who are interested in Bitcoin spend almost the same amount of money at this time, and the crash should begin.
How is the bitcoin market saturated? It is obvious that there are about 20 million people in the world of Bitcoin, which is obviously not saturated. For the market of Bitcoin, there are about 1 billion to 2 billion people in the world, and it can be said that it is close to market saturation.
Although I predict, I don't do it. I only sold ten bitcoins at $10,000, because I believe Bitcoin will rise to $500,000 to $1 million in the future. I won't give up 100 times the profit for these multiple profits. I think this upcoming bull market is the most important wave.
Jiang Zhuoer: In the early days of the bull market, the price of coins rose slowly. The newcomers who came in could hold up the price of the currency, but by the end of the bull market, the price of the currency rose too fast. When it began to grow wild, the newcomers could not keep up with the funds. The price of the currency, the price of the currency will drop rapidly from the high position with a large potential energy, and the bear market will begin. This description is expressed mathematically, that is, the cumulative increase on the 60th is too high. The so-called 60-day cumulative increase refers to the increase in each day's increase, see how many percentages have risen on the 60th, and then you will find that every bull market crash, the cumulative increase on the 60th is a spike. [60-day cumulative increase picture] In 2011, the cumulative increase of the bull market on the 60th was 300%. In the first half of 2013 and the second half of 2013, the cumulative increase of the two bull markets on the 60th was 200%, and the bull market at the end of 2017 was 100%. In turn, where does the bear turn cattle judge? That is the statistical active address, the active address and the actual amount of the user is close to proportional, this is the person who is actually using Bitcoin.
Many people in the bear market in 2014 and 2015 are desperate. I don’t know when the bull market will come. I don’t even know if the bull market will come, but my mentality is particularly good, because the number of active addresses has been increasing, which means that users are keep growing. This is a simple logic, the demand is large, and the total amount of bitcoin is constant, then the price will definitely rise.
It is now possible that Bitcoin’s last demographic dividend, now basically educated people know Bitcoin, but they don’t necessarily buy it, so after this wave goes up, there may be a large population holding money, Even if the whole country holds the currency, the bitcoin’s demographic dividend will be exhausted.
Xiao Yan: How do you see the platform currency? Stabilizing coins? New possibilities in the future?
Zhao Dong: Can you think about what projects are making money? It’s mainly trading and mining, four years ago, and it’s still the case. The essence of digital currency is money, and as the core of money is trading. Mining is the production of currency, the exchange is trading currency, platform currency is a bit like a disguised stock. In my opinion, platform currency is a small number of non-air currency projects.
Jiang Zhuoer: I think so. I think the value of the blockchain is that it can bring economic freedom. This is its most central source. The profit from the center of the fountain flows to other places on the periphery, such as the exchange. It is a pool on the periphery. In fact, it does not create new profits. It is only a part of the profit from the source of the most core economic freedom. Mining, it is also a pool, it stores the source of water, is an intersection of the entire blockchain infrastructure and reality, such things are not actually a source of profit. So if you are personal, I like coins, and some coins that cover the entire source. I don't really like platform coins. First, because platform currency is essentially a brokerage stock, and second, because it is actually controlled by the platform, the platform can completely change the gameplay, and then your money will fluctuate up and down. It doesn't belong to you, so I don't like this thing. I still like the part of the spring.
Li Zongcheng: If you look at making money from investment, platform currency is still a good choice. When you invest a lot of time, you can call the leader and grab the leading stocks in the leading sectors to enjoy the biggest increase. From this rebound, Bitcoin may have doubled. Ethereum has doubled from a minimum of $81 to $167, and the platform has risen three or four times. It is. The two big sisters also regard the platform currency as the brokerage stock equivalent to the brokerage. In fact, from the perspective of stocks, the Spring River Plumbing Duck Prophet, the stock market is the first to be a brokerage stock.
Zhao Dong: When will the new round come in at the next round? I haven't seen anything new yet, but I am more optimistic about the stable currency, because the stable currency will be used far beyond the blockchain industry. In fact, it has been observed that a lot of people have used stable coins on small trades. Although there are not many people, it proves that this model is usable. Stabilizing coins is actually a big killer. . In the past year, the number of Bitcoin users in Venezuela has shown a very significant growth. In the future, when the legal currency of a certain country collapses or there is a sharp depreciation, there may be a large number of new users, and it is possible to use Bitcoin. And stable currency. The current US dollar stable currency is a down-conversion to the traditional financial industry. For example, it is almost impossible for Chinese people to open a bank account in the United States. It is very difficult. But if you open your phone and install an exchange app, you will automatically generate a dollar account, and then the dollar account is completely unregulated. Stabilizing the currency account is actually very difficult to supervise, because people can split their accounts into thousands and 10,000. This is completely without any cost. It costs tens of hundreds of dollars in each account. After using program control, it is equivalent to realizing a very ideal economic freedom, so I said that the stable currency may become a big killer, and the influence of this big killer will far exceed The scope of the blockchain industry today is both user volume and transaction volume.
Li Zongcheng: Which chain has a larger market value, or is determined by its number of users. Which chain can support more people to use it, it may have a higher market value in the future.
Jiang Zhuoer: When it comes to the possibility of the future, from my point of view, it depends on how it brings new economic freedom. For example, bitcoin brings currency freedom, Ethereum brings equity freedom, and stable currency brings legal currency. Freedom of circulation. I haven't said a bit yet. I am more optimistic about decentralized storage. It can guarantee that your article, or files will not be supervised. If there is such a thing to achieve file storage or media freedom, it may be a new one. tuyere. Only technologies such as IPFS are still not very mature.
Li Zongcheng: I think that the existing financial institutions in the digital currency field, Internet companies, including the government, are hard to use the blockchain to make corresponding changes to the existing scenes. Even if they are modified, they are all very fringe on the fur. The thing is not painful. I think that in the blockchain field, it may be more to supply creation demand than to have demand first, and then to promote the change of your corresponding supply.
Uncle Dong said that the demand and Jiang’s freedom are relatively abstract, and we may have a long way to go when investing in projects. Therefore, when we invest, we are more concerned with infrastructure-level projects. There are probably two big directions. One direction is the improvement of existing technology. If you are like Bitcoin’s lightning network, it can really give Bitcoin brings more users and is convenient for users. The second direction is to make new expansions on the new route. Like the number of bitcoin book records, the Ethereum book record is a contract. The contract of the Ethereum account book is a simple contract, which can only record three or five hundred lines. The code, the function of this code, and the degree of application service it is relatively limited, but there are some new projects out there, the contract recorded on the ledger may be richer, record thousands of lines of code, the entire contract operation can Perform more diversified trading operations. After this type of project was discovered one after another, some participated in the investment.
Otaru: Some time ago, Ownen Congfa stated that he wanted to initiate a lawsuit against Peter McCormack, the British host who questioned his identity, and Hodlonaut, the founder of Lightning Torch, and was strongly opposed by the community. And the currency security, Blockchain.com, etc. all said that the BSV will be removed. How do you think that BSV and Ownicong insist that they are Nakamoto?
Zhao Dong: When he declares that he is Nakamoto, you should know that he is a fake. You (Jiang Zhuoer) will not think that he is true?
Jiang Zhuoer: He is definitely not a Nakamoto Satoshi speaking at bitcointalk.org. Because the personality of the two people is too different, Nakamoto will speak on bitcointalk.org. "If you don't understand, then I don't have time to convince. "", will say "after 20 years, Bitcoin's chain trading is either very huge, or not at all." He is a cold and rational person, and his character is definitely not Aoben Satoshi.
However, there is a possibility that it cannot be ignored. Is it that "Zhongben Cong" will be a team, there are two or three people, and everyone else is dead, and that Ao Ben Cong is still alive, he controls the 100 of Nakamoto. Wancoin and Creation World Private Key.
Zhao Dong: Your thoughts are very dangerous! Just as many people believe in God, I can't prove the existence of God, but what if God exists? It is this sense of fear that has created religion.
Jiang Zhuoer: I had a certain degree of confidence that Oban was involved in the development of Bitcoin because I saw an article by Ownen Cong, "Steel and Iron", which put forward a point of view, the isolated block of Bitcoin and It is not a defect, but a specially designed function. The existence of isolated blocks will allow the mine to find ways to reduce the number of isolated blocks and optimize the connection of the global Bitcoin network.
Because at the time I was doing the mine pool myself, I was tossing the isolated block every day, but I never thought about the isolated block in this direction. The point mentioned in his article made me feel suddenly and I thought it was a participatory. The key to knowing the talents of bitcoin design.
However, it was later discovered that this article was not written by Okamoto. There is a team behind him who writes articles for him, and even writes articles at a rate of one day. Most of these articles are discussed around an existing conclusion. The readers resonate, and there are a lot of errors and plagiarism in the article. In the Chinese community, because the information obtained is not one-handed, there is a problem of survivor bias. His speeches and articles are not reliable, and the wrong parts are not translated into Chinese articles. Only relatively more reliable parts are translated into Chinese articles. The English community can see the first-hand information and see A lot of mistakes and errors have not been confused by Ao Ben Cong.
I really believe that Oban has no Nakamoto currency and private key. I talked with him in Hong Kong before the battle, and when I talked about many problems, I found that he was obviously avoiding on many issues.
After the beginning of the battle, the ABC side of the mine pool has a lot of computing power, but most of them are the user's computing power, the mining pool can not be used, can only use the own calculation of the bit mainland. However, BTC.TOP is a machine gun pool. It has a user license for cutting coins. As long as the user pays the proceeds, he can freely use the calculation power to dig any coins. BTC.TOP has a computing power of 5000P. At that time, the system power of BCH was only about 3000P.
We originally planned to be the main computing power of BTC.TOP, bear a small part of the cost of computing power, and then Bit China will bear most of the cost of computing power. But then I didn't expect that Bitcoin Jesus (Roger Ver) came to me and asked me to rent him to him. I asked him why? He said that Oban was playing with him, and Oban was promised to show him the private key signature, but he did not do it. Everyone needs to know that Oban has even shown the private key signature to a biographer, but he does not show it to Jesus. Why do you say it? Finally, the bit of Jesus paid for it, rented my calculation power, and rubbed Ownen Cong on the ground.
From that incident, I know that Okamoto must have no private key. It is impossible for a private key to appear before the battle of power, and to fight for the bit Jesus. The speech will lie, this huge interest will not be deceiving.
Zhao Dong: When Oban was able to verify his identity with Gavin, I asked you to come to me. After that, I sent someone to buy a computer. Under my network, I downloaded a bitcoin client. I was in it. Verify that you see, this address is verified by digital signature, and it proves to be mine – the possibility of being falsified in the middle is very high.
Jiang Zhuoer: Yes, because it is actually similar to when we watched a lot of magic performances. We will say how this can happen. In fact, there are many obstacles in it.
Zhao Dong: My logic is very simple. Really, Nakamoto must not take the initiative to stand up and say that he is Nakamoto.
Xiao Yan: On April 8, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the Catalogue of Industrial Structure Adjustment Guidance (2019, Draft for Soliciting Opinions). The fourth article pointed out that the “virtual currency 'mining' activity (the production process of virtual currency such as bitcoin) was listed as a phase-out industry, which caused a major discussion at one time. Does the NDRC's documents have a substantial impact on the mine? If it is finally implemented, what changes will happen to the ecological structure of the entire blockchain?
Zhao Dong: I think the country’s elimination of bitcoin mining is quite awkward. He does not produce any pollution when mining. Everyone mines water and electricity during the flood season without any pollution. This is a green industry. It is a digital commodity, and it can also earn foreign exchange for the country. The correctness of this matter can be proved in the future. There are many things in history that will be embarrassed, but in the long time span, it will be proved.
Jiang Zhuoer: I think that because it is only a draft for comment, we include people in the circle who are working hard to remove this article. From the actual effect, it is indeed pollution-free. It can turn waste water and waste into US dollar foreign exchange. In such a magical industry, mining is often rich in some regional resources. However, when we are mining in the poor and poor areas, we are doing targeted poverty alleviation.
Jiang Zhuoer: Mining is a financial act. Its income and risk are matched. Where the electricity price is cheap, the political uncertainty is too great, and the mining machine may be swallowed at any time. Taken together, China is the best mining site.
In particular, I would like to remind many friends in the traditional industry that they do not understand the facts in the blockchain industry. They feel that the only thing they can understand is that the industry is mining, but in fact they have not understood it at all. At the time, they will calculate the income, but they are not aware of the terrible power of the bull market. The exponential increase in computing power means that this mining festival may never return. In fact, it has already appeared in the previous round of bull market. This is the case. The next round of bullish currency prices will be slower than the previous round, but the mining machine manufacturing capacity is more cattle than the previous round, so if there is a traditional industry to go to the mining industry, be very careful, make sure you understand, mining Not an industrial production act, but a financial act.
Zhao Dong: The core is that Bitcoin cannot be issued, and the mining machine can be issued indefinitely.
Li Zongcheng: To do things in China, it is still the right way to follow the government's line guidelines. Otherwise, it is more dangerous. What I said just now is the experience of previous investment failures. How did the two big squats step on the investment before, and how did they get up?
Zhao Dong: The most important thing is risk awareness. There is no hundred days of red flowers, and people have no good days. When the market is good, be vigilant. After I made the first wave of money, I was overwhelmed. At that time, Bitcoin 8000, I think it will soon break through. I put all the places that can be leveraged. Finally, I broke the position. Why do we have to wear a seat belt when driving? The probability of driving an accident may be only one in ten thousand, or one in 100,000, but we cannot afford the consequences of the accident. Therefore, we must always consider the risk first, and the risk is the real cost. At that time, I broke the position for the first time because I firmly believe that the bitcoin price is over 10,000. No, I think it is not a problem to break 100,000 and break 1 million. But then I understand that it is important to recognize the immediate risks, the immediate risks, and the short-term risks. Mining is actually the same. I broke the position for the first time and I have lost a lot of money. The second time came very quickly, because the mining was smooth, and the result became a risk. My current summary is that it is not important to earn money now. As long as you live long enough, the opportunity to make money behind, the opportunity to make money behind each wave is N times larger than the opportunity to make money before. It is important to be alive.
Jiang Zhuoer: From my point of view, I want to mention anti-vulnerability. What is anti-fragility? That is to say, when a black swan happens, you are the one who benefits, and you have anti-fragility. When a black swan happens, you are the losing side, then you are not anti-fragile. The currency circle is now Black Swan Lake, so if you don't have anti-fragility, you will definitely hang up.
Since the case of Oban, I have paid attention to my anti-vulnerability. For example, to predict the market, even if I predict that the bottom is 3000, I did not do a lot of bargaining in 3000, why? If you copy it, if you are right, you will earn a little more. If it is wrong, it will be very miserable. Therefore, I said that in 2019, I should do the full year of the French currency and other rated investment.
Li Zongcheng : How do you see Staking mining? What is the impact on PoW?
Zhao Dong: The production of a currency must be cost-effective. Like the mining of PoS, the currency is produced out of thin air. You see that if I consume a lot of energy to produce these books, you want to overturn these books and you also need to consume huge amounts of energy. But if there is no cost and no energy is consumed, it means that the book is overturned very easily.
Li Zongcheng: Then if the mortgaged enough assets go in, then the asset then enters the corresponding token, and then his assets are large enough, and the account book should be relatively safe enough.
Jiang Zhuoer: This involves another aspect. For a currency, the most important thing is fairness. We think that the currency, the legal currency is more convenient, and the acceptance is high. There is nothing to be stolen, so why do we have so many people going into the blockchain because it is unfair because the government can issue legal currency without cost and without restrictions. So fairness is the most important thing for a currency, but the cost is completely unimportant for a currency. Why? Because you can circulate thousands of bits after you have dug out a bitcoin, then if you cost one thousand and divide it by ten thousand, it will basically become.
Zhao Dong: Yes, its cost is actually only once, and it was dug up.
Jiang Zhuoer: Yes, there is another angle. If you have no cost in this currency acquisition, it will actually have a subtle effect on people's psychology. I said that directly, human nature is very embarrassing. If you want to take real money and silver, and change the POS coin that others have no cost, he will be embarrassed.
In addition, it actually played a good advertisement. Most ordinary people did not recognize a thing that produced something out of thin air. He had to see the visible entity. You went to a large mine and pushed the factory door open. Thousands of miners were neatly arranged there, and at first glance, they could not see the end, and huge waves and heat waves came.
Ordinary people see this situation, he will believe that this thing is real, there are so many machines working for it, this thing is credential, so the development of POW coins will be better than PoS coins. You are also like this in history. In the early days, many POS coins did not survive at all, because everyone thought it was not true enough.
But on the other hand, if it is a public chain, it does not necessarily need a POW. Because the public chain does not necessarily need to be fair, it is not like currency, the currency must be fair, the public chain does not need to be fair, what he needs is functional, and what is needed is to meet user needs. For example, like the EOS21 node, it also goes out of its own way, but if I look at the field of money, he must use the POW to dig it out. He must use a lot of resources to dig it out. The more it consumes. The better.