Author: Meng Yan, He Baohui (Mr Newton), Wang Wei
On October 24th, the General Secretary delivered an important speech during the 18th collective study, which established the blockchain as an important breakthrough for China's core technology independent innovation, and called for accelerated promotion of blockchain technology and industrial innovation. This shows that China has upgraded the blockchain to the height of national strategy.
For the blockchain practitioners who were previously controversial and even depressed, the news immediately provoked a huge response. On the one hand, of course, it is joy and encouragement, everyone is gearing up and preparing for a big fight. On the other hand, people are still very amazed and even confused about this transition. Why is this happening? What are the core goals and intentions of the national development blockchain strategy? Why do you suddenly think that the blockchain can play a corresponding role? What changes will happen to China's blockchain industry? How should we choose the breakthrough and strategic path to support the country's strategy most powerfully? Even though it has been two weeks, these problems are still lingering in the hearts of many people.
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The Digital Assets Institute is a professional private institution that studies blockchain, digital assets, digital finance, and the digital economy. In the blockchain industry, when the ambiguity is unknown, many people do not understand, and do not want to see, the Institute organizes people of insight in the industry and conducts in-depth research on many issues. When the international blockchain and digital finance competition bureaus are facing the development that is not conducive to China, the institute screams and actively contributes to the relevant departments.
In order to understand the country's guiding program for the development of the blockchain industry in a deeper and more comprehensive way, the three members of the Digital Assets Institute, Meng Yan, He Baohui and Wang Wei, conducted a closed-term long-term discussion in the suburbs of Beijing. The discussion focused on understanding the speeches of the General Secretary and prejudging changes in the blockchain industry. Now I will sort out some important points in the discussion into words, in order to communicate with the industry and get advice from people of insight.
Here is a brief introduction to the identity of the three interlocutors.
Mr. Meng Yan is the vice president of technology and academics of Digital Assets Research Institute, vice president of CSDN and partner of Ruixin Capital. He is also an early advocate of China's general public economy. He has done a lot of exploration on the application ideas and model design of the certificate economy. .
Mr. He Baohui is the Secretary General of the Academic and Technical Committee of the Digital Assets Institute. He has in-depth research on the digital economy, conceptual economics, and self-coordination organizations in the blockchain. He has published many articles under the pseudonym "Mr. Newton", which has caused great repercussions.
Mr. Wang Wei is a member of the Academic and Technical Committee of the Digital Assets Research Institute. He is the founder of Beijing Zhiding Technology Co., Ltd. He is a cross-border talent in science and technology and finance. He was the chief architect and developed the world's largest distributed bank accounting system. Long-term research on blockchain technology, three years ago, turned to the blockchain direction, developed a number of supply chain finance and industrial Internet-related blockchain solutions.
After the dialogue was written, it was guided and adjusted by the famous economists Professor Zhu Jiaming and Professor Huang Jiangnan. Dr. Shao Qing from the Digital Assets Research Institute also put forward valuable opinions.
1. Are you sure that “your blockchain” is the blockchain advocated by the General Secretary?
Meng Yan (hereinafter referred to as "Meng") : When the general secretary's speech was reported, my first reaction was unbelievable. I was in the meeting at the time. I saw the newsletter and immediately suspended the meeting to open the full text and let my colleagues read it word by word. The expression on everyone's face is almost the same, and it is hard to be surprised in the joy. No one expected that such a thing would happen. Almost for a moment, the blockchain has changed from a controversial and even stigmatized industry to a national strategy. Just a few weeks ago, when I was meeting with old classmates, some people advised me, three hundred and sixty lines. Why do you have to do this blockchain that is unclear and almost a street mouse? "Qing Ben Jiaren, how to be a thief, to make up for the dead, return to the shore." Some friends, who have been in the blockchain industry for a long time, can't see the future, can't stand the pressure and leave the industry. I didn't expect this kind of flipping to happen suddenly, too suddenly and too dramatic.
Wang Wei (hereinafter referred to as “Wang”) : A project that I just delivered in the previous period is obviously a blockchain project. However, when the news is released, the partners insist on taking the word “blockchain” and replacing it with an unknown language. The "digital economy" is very depressing. I asked them, can't even mention the pure and pure "blockchain"? They said that in order to avoid suspicion and less trouble. If it is not the general secretary who speaks, I estimate that for another year and a half, people will be ignorant of the blockchain, and the word "blockchain" will disappear completely in the mainstream public view. China will completely miss this round of technology and The opportunity for change in applications.
He Baohui (hereinafter referred to as "He") : Yes, the entire blockchain industry was indeed misunderstood. In June of this year, I also wrote an article "The blockchain practitioners: being insulted and damaged." People, trying to name the people in the blockchain industry and the industry seriously, at that time, it feels like a small group of people in the boundless snowy mountains to warm up. Now it has changed completely. To put it in a popular word, it is the blockchain chain that is “reversely attacked”.
But in addition to being recognized for the excitement, I personally worry more, because any industry must have the essence and the dross, whether it is a one-size-fits-all comprehensive blockade or a no-death pursuit, it is unhealthy and irrational. Recently, many people outside my industry mistakenly believe that the promotion of blockchain is to promote digital currency. When this news came out, some old students who have not been in contact for a long time asked me how to download digital currency exchanges, what currency is recommended? It is also possible to find that the "air currency" and "MLM" that have been somewhat silent before are active again.
Because the term blockchain has transcended a technical term that was first born, it has become an industry term. And this industry is not as figurative and independent as fisheries, mining, but like the Internet and almost all other industries. In addition, the blockchain technology itself is still developing, and the concept of the industry is expanding. Therefore, in the public's understanding, digital currency, private currency, public chain, exchanges, cryptographic securities, distributed databases, etc. Both belong to the "blockchain." In other words, the public believes that the promotion of the blockchain is also to promote all of the above.
Faced with this problem, I think that before we discuss other things, it is necessary to "qualify" first, to understand the basic concepts first, and to understand what the blockchain advocated by the General Secretary contains, and which ones are not included?
Meng: Yes, what can I do? What can't I do? Where is the red line? This is the first question we must first make clear about the blockchain in China. I also reminded that the General Secretary personally determined the blockchain strategy and promoted the development of the blockchain. Governments at all levels will do their utmost to ensure that this strategy can be properly carried out and will not allow individuals to recite the scriptures. Some people think that the general secretary can speak, and he can do whatever he wants. I think the opposite is true. After the governments at all levels have clarified the strategy, they will take more stringent and determined measures to undermine the overall situation. The more you are at this time, the more cautious and war-torn you are, and don't be obsessed with it.
Wang: The question you said is indeed a top priority. Compared with other popular technologies such as AI and Internet of Things, blockchains are much more difficult to understand. People who don't understand are the same, and those who claim to know themselves have a thousand different people. Understanding. So now there is a problem of re-recognition about the blockchain, and even a certain degree of convergence of understanding and unified understanding. If you don't solve the problem, you must be a variety of demons and ghosts. How to solve the problem? I think it is still necessary to learn and understand the speech of the General Secretary. This speech is clearly stated in the following aspects:
The first is the technical means of data sharing . In the aspect of government information and some social basic information, the blockchain has been effectively used as a technical means of data sharing, especially the ability to combine data sharing and privacy protection. The unique advantages of chain technology will surely make it a basic element in the construction of a new generation of data sharing system, which should be led by the government and strongly advocated.
The second is the infrastructure of the trusted system , which is the meaning of the “blockchain+”. As we all know, the Internet, as a social information infrastructure, has greatly improved the efficiency of information transmission throughout the society. However, the identity authenticity, data validity, and contractual and credit relations of all social entities such as government, enterprises, and individuals cannot be confirmed at the Internet data level. Therefore, we see social credit system construction, inter-enterprise e-commerce, and financial services. Demand in other fields has not been fully met in the Internet age. The blockchain is a set of technology systems based on digital identity and data signature/encryption that can drive the evolution of information infrastructure to a trusted infrastructure and achieve greater overall social efficiency on top of “Internet+”.
The third is to improve the synergy efficiency model , which is the advanced form of blockchain application. Collaboration relies on sharing and credibility. By establishing the synergy based on the above two, it can quickly confirm the identity and data authenticity of the partners, and can confidently submit their data to the relevant parties without fear of privacy leakage. It can quickly obtain the support and ruling of the government, courts and regulatory agencies in the event of a dispute, thereby greatly reducing the transaction costs and market frictions of the entire society and achieving the ideal state of social synergy.
Finally, from the discussion of "guaranteeing the orderly and efficient flow of production factors in the region" , the speech can be felt clearly in the areas where the blockchain technology is best at asset generation, management, transfer, and trading. Support attitude. In terms of the words we are familiar with, it is the use of “passports”. On the other hand, from the point of view of the term “intra-regional”, it implicitly expresses the use of national and even global applications, such as the digitization of the renminbi, or unified planning, deployment, and unified implementation.
He: Pharaoh has already refined the points advocated in the speech of the General Secretary. Then I will explain the most misunderstood part from another angle.
Private digital currencies are not within the scope of this promotion. Although illegal financing activities such as ICO use part of the blockchain technology, they have nothing to do with the blockchain advocated by the General Secretary. The official government also explicitly expressed resistance to these behaviors.
Please note that I specifically use the term "private digital currency". Because when everyone talks, they are used to the word "digital currency", but we have found from our contacts that people in different circles have completely different understandings of the term digital currency, and have produced many misunderstandings. For example, when people in the traditional currency circle refer to digital currency, they will directly think of the original digital assets such as BTC and ETH. Officials refer to digital currency, which is specifically referred to as the legal digital currency issued by the central bank.
In recent months, the central bank has frequently voiced voices to support digital currency. Some speculators in the currency circle have also taken the opportunity to sell their own digital currency to the unidentified “meat people”, which is known as the country’s affirmative direction. Many people are deceived. The state allows the manufacture of knives, but it is naturally not allowed to use a knife to cut people. And from the previous writing on paper into a chain record, purely technical changes can not change the nature of illegal financing or money, we must be alert to the illegal behavior of these scorpions.
We must see clearly that in the current state, it supports legal digital currency, the digitization of assets based on blockchain technology, and the circulation of digital assets that promote economic growth in line with the requirements of the regulatory system.
Meng: I have read the speeches of the General Secretary for dozens of times. It is really rich in content and the words are inscribed. It is not easy to fully understand. I feel that there are some directions in the current position that are still unclear.
For example, computing power mining . Computational mining is a common mechanism used by global blockchains such as Bitcoin. The large scale of computing power means that the power of discourse in the international arena and the power to make rules are large. In this sense, as long as Bitcoin remains the most recognized digital currency in the world, the mining industry should at least allow and even support it. On the other hand, the blockchain that the government participates in and faces the real economy does not need to count on mining. From the perspective of the general economics, in most of the incentive models, computing power is not a good measure of contribution, and the energy consumption in this field is huge, and there has been a lot of criticism. Not long ago, the National Development and Reform Commission removed the virtual currency “mining” activity from the list of “eliminated industries”, but this does not mean that this is the industry encouraged by the national strategy. At present, China's virtual currency mining industry chain is experiencing excitement, and a large amount of capital is being queued into it. Instead, I think there is a crisis in it.
The second unclear direction is the native digital currency and its transactions . In the future, there will be a large number of rigorously audited and certified compliant digital assets in various industries and across industries, as well as compliant and licensed digital asset exchanges. Existing securities and futures exchanges are also likely to increase their numbers. The variety of asset transactions. However, the status of the original digital currency such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, as well as its trading behavior, especially the exchange, will be how the government will position itself in the future. It is not clear at this time. Not long ago, the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission issued a position paper on the supervision of virtual asset trading platforms, which may provide a solution to this problem. Overall, I am optimistic that I believe that the regulatory authorities will come up with a regulatory approach that allows for the trading of native digital currencies within a framework. But whether this industry will be shuffled is worthy of attention.
The third unclear direction is the public chain . Because the academician Chen Chun who gave lectures to the Politburo on many occasions expressed the fact that the public chain is not suitable for China's supervision, it is generally believed that the blockchain strongly advocated by the state is mainly the alliance chain. But in the blockchain industry, there is a heated debate over this issue. In the first two years, the proponents of the public chain criticized the alliance chain as a pseudo-blockchain, and the alliance chain did not produce a particularly successful case in practice, so the alliance chain was once dying. Now that the situation has reversed, it is the turn of the supporters of the public chain to prove their regulatory nature. If this work is not done well, the public chain may be subject to certain suppression in the short term.
He: In the end, I will make a summary, not including ICO, and does not include private digital currency. It includes supply chain finance, legal deposit, government affairs, and other “industrial blockchains” that are closely integrated with the real economy. For mining, exchanges, and public The positioning of the three blockchain industry's original hot spots, the positioning is not clear.
2. What do countries want to do with blockchain?
Meng: After the announcement of this news, there are some embarrassing cynics overseas, saying that blockchain is useless. This time it has been promoted to a national strategy. It is inexplicable. Leaders are being "fudged" and will repeat in the future. The coverage of P2P". I think these arguments, in addition to the inherent malicious derogatory to China, still reflect the accident and incomprehension of this major decision. So we should analyze how this major shift happened. What is the logic and core intention behind it? What do you think?
Wang: I really don't have a particularly thorough and comprehensive analysis in this respect. I can only talk about the phenomena I have observed and some personal feelings.
The first feeling is that after this speech, not only the participants in the blockchain field have their own different interpretations, but many people who have not done relevant work in this field have also quickly What is the chain, what can be done, and what should be done? It is said that the number of evangelists has increased dramatically. I think that on the whole, everyone should feel the determination of this matter at the national level, and they will catch up. Our industry is still so weak, and it is a blessing to have more power to join.
Secondly, there are indeed many interpretations that are biased by us. For example: Some people think that it is to stimulate the economy in the short term. Probably because the Xinhua News Agency’s report clearly stated that “it is necessary to clarify the direction of the main attack and increase investment”. In other words, the state will promote the allocation of certain financial resources from the strategic height to promote the development of the blockchain industry, and will certainly drive social funds to invest in this direction. However, if this is understood as a short-term economic stimulus, then the leadership's strategic positioning and strategic patience for the blockchain will be underestimated. The blockchain industry is still very immature. Strictly speaking, it cannot be called an industry. It is not a field with strong employment pulling effect. If the economy is to be stimulated in the short term, the blockchain is by no means preferred.
There is also a more interesting point of view, which is to advertise the upcoming central bank digital currency DC/EP , which is even more nonsense . Not to mention that the central bank does not need to advertise for the issuance of digital currency, even if it is to do advertising, there is no such high specification.
As for the risks, it is definitely risky to ask for truth. For example, "P2P" is an example of a situation in which the financial objective law is not fully grasped, and finally it is difficult to end. Of course, it does not want to repeat itself in the blockchain industry. In addition, the blockchain industry has a special feature, which is mentioned above by you and Baohui. Many of the content that is not encouraged and unclear are also part of this big industry, adding a lot of uncertainty. Therefore, it is indeed a serious challenge for the blockchain industry to avoid repeating the same mistakes and prevent it from being ruined.
In short, I think that the blockchain is by no means a powerful drug, but a slow-acting drug. The general secretary clearly put forward the "blockchain+" in his speech, that is, to use the blockchain in all walks of life and play the blockchain. The advantage is to solve some stubborn problems in the Chinese economy from the perspective of structure and production relations. In a project at the beginning of the year, the partner said: "We have accumulated data for three years in the blockchain. When it comes out, everyone has to admit its value." This is the attitude that should be implemented in the blockchain. And determination.
He: Although this decision is more violent than we expected, it is logical to be overall. First of all, I declare that I do not grasp any so-called insider of this major decision, but only do some logical analysis from the open information. I talked about three points. One is "can't be caught in the neck", the second is "going out to form an alliance", and the third is "training internal strength."
First, not to be stuck in the neck: the decentralization of the blockchain is to go to the US technology monopoly center.
We must realize that the external environment China is facing now is the most complicated and severe in decades. To put it bluntly, the United States has told the world very clearly that it wants to contain China. For us, competition with the United States is a basic situation that our generation of Chinese people will face in the next few years or even decades. There is no need to be lucky.
In the Sino-US trade war we are experiencing, we have seen various tricks such as increasing tariffs, restricting purchases, and restricting sales in the United States. If we increase tariffs and restrict the purchase of Chinese products, we can solve them through market competition or even abandon the US market. Although it will cause harm to the Chinese economy, it is not fatal. So limiting sales to China, especially to the cooperation and sales of products in the high-tech sector, is to let Chinese entrepreneurs and leaders feel a deep sense of powerlessness.
On April 16, 2018, the US Department of Commerce announced that it would ban US companies from selling any electronic technology or communication components to China Telecom equipment manufacturer ZTE. 20%~30% of the components without substitutes are missing. In a flash, the second largest enterprise in China in the field of telecom equipment manufacturing faces the problem of life and death. For China, for a moment, In the global game of grabbing the 5G market, it is easy to kill a leading player. However, this is the beginning. In May 2019, Huawei, which was praised by the Chinese as "fortunately, we still have a Huawei", was also denied the supply of American technology and parts.
On the other hand, when the United States sanctioned Iran, it directly cut off the SIWFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications) service for the Iranian central bank, blocking the bank's liaison with other banks around the world. It is as severe as cutting off all blood vessels that flow to an organ in the body.
Chips, lithium batteries, the Internet, the financial system… When I really fought physically, I discovered that because of the limitations of various card neck technologies, no matter how big and how proud the business giants are like towering but the foundation is not Stable and dangerous buildings in general. At this time, both entrepreneurs and leaders are aware of the need to break through the ship, no matter how much the cost must have the core technology of independent innovation.
Speaking of this, it is not difficult to understand the importance of decentralization of the blockchain. The blockchain can dismantle the centralized financial system that the United States has carefully managed to build a new system that requires no permission, free participation and free to leave, and it has taken away the stick of the United States wielding sanctions. For the next generation of infrastructure-level technology, from the very beginning, we must participate in and even guide the development of technology, adhere to independent innovation, and no longer be constrained. So I remember that the speech of the General Secretary just came out that day, an entrepreneur in the United States said on Twitter that the blockchain is the space race of our generation. I don't think it is too much to say so.
Second, go out and form an alliance: establish an economic cooperation body led by China.
After Trump took office, he has been "retreating" and repeatedly using US hegemony to suppress other countries. In this pattern, many people predict that China will have to go, and must also establish a system that is parallel to the US-led system, similar to SWIFT, similar chips, similar medicines, and so on. Of course, there will not be too many such systems. It is likely that eventually the world will only form two systems that are dominated by the United States and dominated by China.
In such a system, the countries concerned need to work closely together. How to build trust and reduce transaction costs becomes the biggest problem, and this is precisely the characteristic of the blockchain technology. The blockchain-based digital economy system is open, transparent, and extensible, and can effectively achieve value information between different economies. The blockchain-based digital currency and the pass can be compatible through incentives. The optimal allocation of resources in the economy tends to be Pareto optimal.
In addition, economies based on blockchain formation will break through the traditional geographical latitude limit and tend to be vertically industrialized. A part of an industry forms an industrial economic community, and individual industrial economic communities are superimposed across different regions, prompting the multi-dimensional close cooperation of various regions of the economy, and eventually forming an economic cooperation body led by China.
Third, practicing internal strength: promoting China's transformation and upgrading to a higher level of digital economy.
China's digital economy accounts for one-third of GDP and is among the best in the world in many fields. This is one of the most proud achievements of ordinary Chinese. Because we are overtaking in this direction, we need to pay special attention to how to maintain our advantage. To maintain our advantage, there is no other way, we must adopt more advanced and more determined technologies and accelerate the development of our competitors, even those who seem to be behind us, as long as they are accurate. You have to be brave.
With the emergence of blockchains, the contours of the next generation of global digital economy and digital finance have gradually emerged. The blockchain can take information integration to a new level, thus greatly reducing transaction costs, facilitating collaboration among different stakeholders, and vigorously regulating and regulating participants. This is exactly what is needed to promote the upgrade of China's digital economy. I think the decision maker should see this.
Overall, this is the inevitable result of open discussions and open exchanges between the blockchain and the digital economy since June.
Meng: I also add a little. Blockchain is a tool to modernize the national governance system and governance capacity.
The Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee proposed the modernization of the national governance system and governance capacity. Many people say this is the fifth modernization. My experience is actually to strengthen China's soft power, release the potential of the Chinese system, and cope with severe challenges.
The blockchain strategy should be placed at this level to understand. The level of corporate and social governance in our country is actually not high enough. Many people think that the Chinese government has great power and strong execution. In fact, it means that the government is very efficient in matters that are of major concern. For the management of a large number of daily affairs, there is actually a big gap compared to the level of advanced countries.
The blockchain technology is completely different in terms of folk use and government. The government's access to the blockchain consensus system with public power can greatly accelerate the efficiency and authority of consensus formation. For example, a blockchain with a talent education and education and training resume, if the people do it, slowly accumulate credit and attract more partners to join, it may take ten to eight years to form a consensus. However, if the Ministry of Education and the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security participate, a consensus can be formed soon. The government's participation can push the blockchain into many areas that were previously inaccessible, forming an efficient overall social governance network system.
Of course, many people will worry that such a governance network is still highly centralized, but in fact, due to the characteristics of the blockchain itself, the nodes in the network can have government, but also supervisory institutions, enterprises, media, universities and other societies. Organizations, everyone can build, manage, co-go, collaborate, and share revenue based on rules. It is also hoped that the government can recognize that the blockchain represents this intelligent, more advanced governance model. The tool has changed and the method has changed.
From a governance perspective, this tool is of course very efficient. Let me give you an example. The general secretary said that it is necessary to "promote the deep integration of the blockchain and the real economy, solve the difficulty of financing loans for SMEs, the difficulty of bank risk control, and the difficulty of departmental supervision." A lot of people don't understand how the blockchain can do this? In fact, today's SME loan financing is difficult, in large part because banks can only issue loans based on collateral or guarantees, while SMEs often have no collateral, and no one is willing to give him a guarantee. More importantly, SME accounts Often confused, the bank wants to issue loans based on the real trade background, but it is difficult to determine the authenticity of the contract, warehouse receipts, bill of lading and so on. Banks are difficult to control, and SMEs have difficulty in natural loans.
This matter is also a problem in foreign countries. How to deal with it? The key is " cross data verification ." Recently, General Electric has been short-selled, and the short-selling general investigation report has a significant difference from the previous similar investigation, which is the introduction of “cross-data verification”. The report clearly states that short sellers use data from the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) and AM Best (a major US rating and insurance data agency) to access eight of the top insurance companies in the general electrical insurance business. The statutory financial statements submitted to the relevant state insurance committees found that the data at both ends could not be matched. That is to say, the data cross-validation of eight companies has exposed the behavior of GE's fraud.
If you can identify the fake, you can prove it. If we build blockchains based on blockchains that integrate supply chain, logistics, transportation, warehousing, commercial contracts, invoices, financial statements, etc., we require multiple nodes and authoritative information sources to cross data on corporate accounts and real trade behaviors. Verification, then the cost of fraud will be too high to bear, the real information will be identified, and financial institutions such as banks can confidently support the company based on real information.
Therefore, through this global network, not only can we supervise and manage well, but also serve the enterprise and serve the people. When the country makes decisions, it can promote implementation and promote reform and transformation with very high efficiency. Working together for more than ten or twenty years, building the world's most efficient and powerful blockchain business and social governance infrastructure for China, can fundamentally change the governance mechanism of Chinese society and create one of the best in the world. Business, entrepreneurship and the living environment will also greatly enhance the integrity of our society as a whole. This matter is really a hundred years old and worthy of our generation’s efforts.
He: It can be seen that the blockchain has strategic significance in both internal and external aspects. It can improve the governance level of smart government affairs, and weaken the hegemony to establish a new economic community.
3. Why is it better to promote the blockchain to a national strategy?
Meng: After the speech of the general secretary was published, the whole industry was full of joy and felt that spring was coming. However, there are also some people who worry that in the state where ordinary people and even most government officials and entrepreneurs are still unfamiliar and unfamiliar with the blockchain, it is easy for the country to use such high specifications and such great power to promote and promote it. A huge industrial bubble. I think this is a question that our blockchain people should answer positively.
He: I think this kind of worry is normal. This is actually a problem with universality. Many people are fundamentally opposed to any national industrial policy. There have also been debates between two top economics professors in previous years. I guess, what you said that people who do this to undermine the market mechanism also believe that Internet companies are burning money to undermine the market mechanism. But now we look back, if the Didi, Meituan, and Hungry did not have one billion or even one billion yuan of burning money, will these companies still live today? I must have been killed by competitors. Therefore, I believe that the "Great Leap Forward" behavior of burning money is not terrible. As long as you clearly understand the direction and can bear the risk of failure, you should invest, and you should invest heavily.
Just now I also mentioned that the blockchain is the space race of our generation. I can’t control the core technology. In the future, I will still face the risk of being “card necked” again, and it’s not just “card neck”, it may be “broken neck”. ", it will be fatal. I believe that the general secretary must have been carefully judged by the team, understand and strengthen this direction. Since the direction is clear, it is better to invest heavily in the industry at the beginning, and it will be better than the future when the industry is sanctioned.
Indeed, as many people have said, mentioning the national strategic height in the early stage of the industry will definitely create a market bubble. But like the development of the Internet, the development of any industry will actually go through an irrational bubble period. After this stage, most companies will be eliminated and washed away, but what will remain will be the future. The mention of the national strategic height does not change the bubble period itself, but only accelerates the bubble period earlier and lasts shorter. At this time, for the leaders, it is the problem of “spending money to accelerate the gambling probability”. The probability of having enough samples will not be too much deviation. After the acceleration of the bubble period, it will be able to precipitate the independent innovation and the world's leading blockchain infrastructure.
The improvement of this national strategy is absolutely beneficial to the blockchain practitioners who have made certain achievements in earnest. On the one hand, it is notorious to talk to anyone about how to be a blockchain. People around you can understand and support it. On the other hand, it means a large amount of traffic, whether it is capital flow, business flow, or talent flow. I believe that in the next year, there will be a crazy influx, practitioners should seize this time window.
But this also means that the giants will enter the market one after another. Their advantages in manpower, capital and technology will compress the opportunity space for small entrepreneurs. In other words, there are not many opportunities left by the industry for grassroots.
Wang: From a big logical point of view, many people are worried that the bubble is worried that the bubble will not remain in the past. The essence is that they cannot understand the unique value of the blockchain technology.
The technology of the world can be roughly divided into two categories, one is the "good work" technology, and the other is the "good governance" technology. The skill of good work is to improve the efficiency of a single point, which can be understood by people as soon as they see it. The good governance technology is to establish and coordinate the relationship between people and improve the overall efficiency of collaboration. In many cases, the improvement of overall collaboration efficiency is in contradiction with the interests of individuals. Therefore, for this technology, it is hard to imagine when you don’t see it. It is not easy to understand when you see it, and even you are unwilling to accept it. The entire market economy system and monetary system can be considered as typical representatives of good governance technology.
Blockchain is also a typical good governance technique. The way to improve efficiency is counter-intuitive. Simply speaking, by sacrificing local efficiency and paying unnecessary costs, the resulting trust relationship promotes the overall efficiency of social collaboration. Upgrade. The specific means is that the identity can be confirmed, the data cannot be forged, and the behavior needs to be responsible. Is this not very similar to the constraint on the legal entity in the market economy? Only blockchains have solidified these models with technical means.
We can see that the frontier information technologies such as artificial intelligence, big data, and the Internet of Things mentioned in the speech of the General Secretary have all been mentioned at the national strategic level. Since the development of the economy relies mainly on improving efficiency, the “good work” technology is easier to be upgraded to the level of the national strategy, and indeed sees a significant effect. However, at the level of social governance, such as credit system construction, SME financing, intellectual property protection, etc., we have been lacking effective technical means.
Today, the low efficiency of social collaboration has become a major shortcoming. In this case, the local efficiency is no higher, and you have the highest efficiency at each point. If the cooperation between them is still rampant, the overall social operating cost is still high.
Blockchain technology happens to be the best candidate to make up for this shortcoming, so raising it to the national strategic level is a very correct and timely decision.
History shows that people's superiority to such rules and institutional technologies is particularly difficult to understand. It requires vision, mind and great wisdom, and it takes time. For example, in a planned economy system, there are some imbalances and shortages. Managers will naturally think that management is not enough, and they are not tight enough. Instinctively, they will strengthen management and control. No one can think of another idea and relax. If you engage in a market economy and let the market mechanism work, it will be more effective than planning and control. I think this is also a misunderstanding of most people who are skeptical about the blockchain. These questions can only be solved through practice. In particular, we should pay attention to the use of incentives in practice, rather than using simple administrative means. Otherwise, Deviated from the original intention of this technology.
Meng: Because most people are a small part of economic activities, they only analyze the gains and losses from the scope of their own, so they can't understand the technology of blockchain to improve the overall efficiency. The "probability of gambling as a whole will eventually accelerate the maturity of the country's infrastructure."
From the perspective of standing on the whole, it must be based on the whole, so our views are consistent, and it is a good thing to promote the blockchain as a national strategy. The government can vigorously advance the situation that most people do not understand, and it also reflects the wisdom and determination of our national leaders.
4. Where is the opportunity?
He: So where are our opportunities? Or which direction should I go?
Wang: I think that the application areas related to the corporate credit system, especially the SME credit system, will get the earliest and fastest development, such as supply chain finance, intellectual property protection and trading.
On the one hand, blockchain technology is matched with these scenarios. For example, data chaining and smart contracts can promote cross-data verification and provide effective data support for supply chain finance. Real-time data deposit can help IP original enterprises in time. Register, confirm, and simplify the provision of evidence and promote active trading.
On the other hand, the incentive mechanism for these application scenarios is relatively clear. For example, accounts receivable financing and warehouse receipt pledge directly provide “liquidity incentives” for enterprises, and enterprises only need to pay lower operating costs of data in time. Intellectual property rights in a timely manner, like buying insurance, usually pay some small costs, win the lawsuit at a critical moment or sell cash, and get big gains. These models are consistent with the concept of Compulsory Excitation, and things that conform to economic laws must develop faster.
Meng: I am engaged in the economy. The nature of the escrow economy is an organizational management model characterized by the ability to motivate contributors fairly, efficiently, and transparently within a collaborative space of cyberspace with trusted digital assets and trusted algorithm rules. Scale, improve collaboration, and create greater value. I have always believed that the pass-through economy is the most important, the most sexy, and the most closely related application to the ordinary people. It is also the most concerned point for entrepreneurs. In the period when the blockchain is at its lowest point, the pass-through economy can still find a legal and compliant play, which proves its own effect in practice. I believe that the external environment will improve, which will make the pass-through economy stretch. Great work.
He: The maturity of the blockchain technology infrastructure will surely accelerate the adoption of the large-scale organization of the organization from the Association (ACO), which allocates resources within the organization through algorithms rather than labor. The organizational boundaries of the traditional corporate system will be broken, the number of organizations will tend to be dynamic, and the number is likely to grow geometrically compared to the original company. This organization will go beyond the geographic latitude and move toward the industry latitude. It is conceivable that each of us will belong to more than one such self-organizing organization at the same time. The pass is the blood in the self-organized organization. I believe that next, we will see some companies transition to the form of self-organizing organizations.
5. Technology is still developing, and learning still needs to work hard
Meng: In fact, the blockchain technology is still developing, the infrastructure is not mature enough, and the whole society will invest huge resources in the blockchain infrastructure to support its development. Pharaoh, what do you think are the main directions of the blockchain on the technical level?
Wang: Relevant theoretical research on infrastructure, core technologies and new types of collaboration will usher in the golden period of development. I think there are several technical targets in the industry.
The first is digital identity. Based on the blockchain-based Self-Sovereign Identity and its management system, this is the core, most basic and most important technical infrastructure and digital resources in the blockchain era.
The second is a high-performance, highly scalable blockchain. Without this infrastructure, blockchains cannot enter truly large-scale applications.
The third is blockchain security technology. This point was highlighted in the speech of the General Secretary. Without adequate security, the entire system of blockchains will collapse.
The fourth is the theory and norms of asset standardization, digitization, and certification. Without this system, real-world physical assets cannot be mapped to blockchains.
The fifth is the design of the certificate of incentives. The design of the census incentive model is actually an upgraded version of the game theory mechanism design. The existing game theory mechanism design level, writing a thesis is ok, and it is not enough to guide commercial competition practice. Now the blockchain and the pass-through economy have suddenly pushed this issue to the front of the enterprise. Enterprises need to use it now because of the need for competition. Therefore, a major breakthrough is needed in this field.
The sixth is the theory of economics and monetary science of digital currency . This will be a highly complex hot issue.
This is a few that I can see, certainly not comprehensive. It is precisely because the "good governance" technology such as blockchain has appeared in history, so it is difficult for everyone to find other cases for his development goals, evolution path and final form. For example, too much emphasis on improving performance is likely to be a misunderstanding. Only when the whole society clearly uses it as a means of technological governance can we find more effective application scenarios, put forward reasonable requirements for the development of the underlying technology, point out the correct direction, and develop the infrastructure more efficiently to form a benign interactive.
He: It can be seen that the blockchain technology is still in the early stage of its development, and there are a lot of exciting innovations waiting for us to discover, we must continue to learn, in order not to be squeezed out of the car .