Abstract: Short-term, bitcoin has fallen back, and the altcoin is relatively strong. Today, the problem of EOS congestion caused by airdrop projects continues and the fundamentals deteriorate further, but the short-term negative impact on the market is limited.
According to QKL123 statistics, at 13:00 on November 12, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 1,770.173 billion yuan, the total market value of 24-hour increased or decreased by -1.77%, the total turnover was 486.36 billion yuan, and the total turnover changed -5.45%. Market activity has declined. The Babbitt Composite Index reported 12,429.19 points, a 24-hour rise to -1.71%, reflecting the market's decline; the Bitcoin strength index reported 91.97 points, 24 hours up or down -0.64%, bitcoin's relative performance in the entire market slightly Weakened; the Alternative sentiment index was 39, a slight decrease from yesterday (40), and the market sentiment was still fearful.
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Among the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), BTC had the largest decline in 24 hours (-2.29%), and BNB had the largest increase in 24 hours (+0.27%). The USDT has risen and fallen to +0.28% in 24 hours. The current net inflow of funds today is 8.9075 million yuan, which is opposite to yesterday. USDC has a 24-hour up/down of +0.06%. The current net capital inflow today is 3.641 million yuan, slightly lower than yesterday. Reduced; ChaiNext USDT off-market discount premium index reported 99.81, 24 hours up and down -0.15%.
In the past day, Bitcoin's Google search relative value (peak 89) rebounded slightly from the previous value (peak 85), approaching a one-month average. The top seven countries in the heat are Nigeria (100), Ghana (42), South Africa (41), Cyprus (39), Germany (39), Austria (39) and Switzerland (38). In the past day, the global Ethereum's Google search relative value (peak 93) rose significantly from the previous value (peak 68), approaching a one-month high.
Analyst's point of view:
In the past few weeks, the continuous congestion of the EOS network has caused a lot of people's attention, which is reminiscent of the network congestion problem of Ethereum. At the end of 2017, a blockchain game called CryptoKitty was hot, which resulted in a large area of congestion in the Ethereum network. Users can only complete transactions quickly by increasing the handling fee. Extensibility is one of the main problems facing the public chain. In the future, Ethereum 2.0 will solve the scalability problem through technologies such as fragmentation and sidechain.
EOS transfers do not need to pay for GAS fees, but need to mortgage EOS to obtain network resources (CPU, RAM, etc.). The cause of this congestion was the EIDOS airdrop. The EIDOS airdrop attracted a large number of EOS users to participate, and the price of CPU and other resources increased, making it impossible for ordinary users to make normal transfers (low-cost transfer). In addition, short-term hype of network resources such as GPUs has increased the degree of congestion and formed a vicious circle. The problems exposed by EOS this congestion include not only scalability issues, but also the shortcomings of resource design mechanisms (resource prices are easy to speculate).
For the EOS market price, the current impact is limited, because this congestion is a problem caused by the surge in short-term demand. However, if the problem cannot be resolved in the short term, it will hit the market confidence and increase the negative impact, and vice versa.
First, the spot BTC market
At present, BTC has not seen a significant increase in volume, and it has gained support around $8,800, with short-term fluctuations.
As of 15:00, BTC's net capital inflow today was 129,395,100 yuan. Among them, the large inflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net inflow of 10,541.11 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 12.538 million yuan, in the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow was 178,900,100 yuan, and the net outflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 185,510,000 yuan. The market began to see more, but the differences still exist, and the main capital inflows are mostly.
Yesterday, the average calculation power of the BTC network was 101.90EH/s, which was higher than the previous day. It was close to a month high and the long-term uptrend was unchanged. The number of active addresses on the chain was 635,200, which was significantly lower than the previous day. Monthly average; the volume of transactions on the chain was 724,400, a slight increase from the previous day, close to a one-month low; the number of coins destroyed was 5.361 million (historically small), which was higher than the previous day, and the long-term uptrend was not destroyed. .
Second, the spot ETH market
Today, after the ETH shrinks down to around $185, it stabilizes, the amount and amplitude tend to shrink, and there is a possibility of a change in the short-term; the ETH/BTC transaction continues to fluctuate slightly, and the short-term relative performance is slightly stronger.
As of 15:00, ETH's net outflow of funds today was 87.579 million yuan. Among them, the net inflow of oversized single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 23.31 million yuan, the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 46.361 million yuan, and the net is between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan. The outflow of 4,435,300 yuan, the small outflow (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 15,249,800 yuan. There are serious differences in the market, with a large outflow of small orders.
Observing DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp has increased. Game application My Crypto Heroes's 24-hour active users 3.2k, 24 hours change +27.09%; financial application MakerDAO's 24-hour active users 1.3k, 24 hours change +7.18%; quiz application Playtowin.io 24-hour active users The number is 1k, 24 hours change -0.79%.
Third, the spot LTC market
LTC is mainly based on BTC, and it continues to fluctuate around 60 US dollars, and its relative performance is slightly weak.
As of 15:00, the net outflow of LTC funds today was 28,458,700 yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 89.946 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 11.529 million yuan, in the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow of 25.3392 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 15824.98 million. The market is consistently bearish and funds continue to flow out.
Yesterday, the average computing power of LTC's entire network was 184.92TH/s, a slight increase from the previous day, close to the low point of eight months. After the halving of the block reward on August 05, the computing power has declined. There is no sign of recovery. Although it has not fallen below the low of the beginning of the year, the risk of stamping is greater. The number of active addresses on the LTC chain (5.3 million) rebounded slightly from the previous day, approaching a one-month low; the number of currency days destroyed was 937.52 million (historically small), and the long-term trend was not destroyed.
Fourth, the spot EOS market
EOS fell back with the market yesterday, and the lowest price reached 3.4 US dollars.
As of 15:00, EOS's net outflow of funds today was 60,195,500 yuan. Among them, the net inflow of oversized single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 6,952,600 yuan, and the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 1,199.3 million yuan, and the net is between 10,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan. Inflows were 26.104 million yuan, and the net outflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 105.24 million yuan. There is a big difference in the market, with a large outflow of small orders.
According to DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp has dropped significantly, which is related to the continuous congestion of the network in recent days (caused by EIDOS airdrop). The EOS Dynasty's 24-hour user number is 2k, which is -10.25% compared with yesterday. The number of 24-hour active users who use Newdex for trading is 985, which is -7.86% compared with yesterday. The number of 24-hour active users who use Dice is 470, which is different from yesterday. 48.41%.
V. Analyst strategy
1. Long line (1-3 years)
The long-term trend of BTC is improving. Currently, it is in the stage of partial retreat. The mad cow market is likely to arrive in the next one to two years. The relative price of the BTC of the smart contract platform leader ETH, the cottage coin LTC, and the DPoS leader EOS is close to the low of the year and can be properly configured.
2. Midline (1-3 months)
At present, Bitcoin returns to the 200-day moving average, and those who do not have a strong position are bargain-hunting.
3. Short-term (1-3 days)
Back support can be used for small positions and low suction.
VI. Appendix – Index Interpretation
1. Babbitt Composite Index
The Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) consists of the largest and most representative Tokens in the global market for existing blockchains to reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain Token market.
2. Bitcoin strength index
The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the conversion of Bitcoin in the entire Token market, which in turn reflects the competitive strength of Bitcoin in the market and is used to measure the extent to which Bitcoin changes the relative price of a basket of Tokens. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger the bitcoin in the Token market.
3.Alternative sentiment index
The Fear & Greed Index reflects the emotional changes in the market, with 0 meaning “extreme fear” and 100 meaning “extreme greed”. The indicators include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), trend (10%).
4.USDT Off-exchange Discount Index
The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. An index of 100 indicates USDT parity, an index greater than 100 indicates a USDT premium, and a value less than 100 indicates a USDT discount.
5. Google search trend
This refers to Google web search data results, the relative value of the search in the specified time and region: the hottest record of 100, the heat accounted for the highest half of 50, there is not enough data of 0. Note: The higher the score in a country, the higher the percentage of search terms in all local search terms, and does not mean the absolute number of searches.
6. Net inflow of funds (out)
This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds from the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow of funds and the outflow of funds on the global exchange (not including false transactions), positive values indicate net inflows of funds, while negative values indicate net outflows of funds. Among them, the turnover is calculated as the inflow of funds when the rise, and the turnover is calculated as the outflow when the decline occurs.
7. Currency Day Destruction
Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days of Bitcoin holdings. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. BTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 100 million is the maximum value; 50 to 100 million is the larger value; 10 to 50 million is the median; less than or equal to 10 million is the smaller value. LTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 500 million is the maximum value; 100 million to 500 million is the larger value; 50 to 100 million is the median; less than or equal to 50 million is the smaller value.
8. Number of active addresses on the chain
The number of active addresses on the chain refers to the number of addresses in the chain address of the block chain. Usually, this indicator can reflect the activity level of a chain of a public chain, and the demand activities under the chain such as secondary market transactions and wallet use will have a greater impact on it.
Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.