QKL123 market analysis | For the central bank digital currency, what is the country's intention? (1115)

Abstract: Recently, the market has shrunk and contracted. Today, there are signs of capital inflows. The altcoin currency has started to change from weak to strong, and there may be a change in the short-term. At present, most central banks are studying the digital currency of the central bank. Some countries have issued or failed, and a few countries are afraid of financial risks.

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According to QKL123 statistics, at 13:00 on November 15, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 1,683.322 billion yuan, the total market value of 24-hour increased or decreased by -1.16%, the total turnover was 471.603 billion yuan, and the total turnover changed by +4.50%. The market activity has rebounded. The Babbitt Composite Index reported 12,131.46 points, a 24-hour rise to -1.52%, reflecting the market's decline; the Bitcoin strength index was 92.45 points, 24 hours up +0.43%, and the relative performance of Bitcoin in the entire market was slightly Stronger; the Alternative sentiment index was 38, a slight decrease from yesterday (41), and the market sentiment was still fearful.

Among the top ten encrypted assets in the market capitalization (excluding USDT), BCH had the largest decline in 24 hours (-2.47%), and BNB had the smallest 24-hour decline (-0.81%). The USDT has risen and fallen to +0.06% in 24 hours. The current net outflow of funds today is 508,500 yuan, which is significantly lower than yesterday. The USDC has risen and fallen to +0.13% in 24 hours. The current net inflow of funds today is 8.158 million yuan, which is opposite to yesterday. The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index was reported at 100.63, with a 24-hour up/down of +1.03%.

In the past day, Bitcoin's Google search relative value (peak 78) dropped significantly from the previous value (peak 98), approaching a one-month low. The top seven countries in the heat are Nigeria (100), Ghana (43), South Africa (41), Germany (38), Switzerland (38), Austria (38) and Cyprus (36). In related topics, Bitcoin Loophole's search volume rose again in the first place, a fraudulent association that claims to be a platform for automatic trading of Bitcoin. In the past day, the global Ethereum's Google search relative value (peak 63) dropped slightly from the previous value (peak 69), below the one-month average.

Analyst's point of view:

According to a survey by the Bank for International Settlements, 70% (more than 60 samples) of central banks are studying the central bank's digital currency, and about a quarter of central banks have obtained or are about to be authorized to issue central bank digital currencies, but the majority (85%) ) said that it is unlikely to be issued within three years.

According to statistics, the countries that have issued central bank digital currency are some small countries, such as Venezuela (an anchored oil), Senegal (multinational use), Marshall Islands (decentralized), Ecuador (failed) and Uruguay (cancelled). .

For the central bank digital currency, the purpose of each central bank's issuance is different, including: First, reduce the issuance cost of banknotes to achieve digitalization or programmable purposes, such as China, Uruguay, etc.; Second, bypass US sanctions or Get rid of the shackles of the dollar, issue relatively independent digital currencies, such as Venezuela, Iran, etc.; Third, increase the central bank's control over the currency to maintain the stability of the monetary system, such as Sweden, Norway and so on.

Central banks that do not intend to issue also have their own ideas, mainly because of the risk of damage to the financial system, such as South Korea, Germany and New Zealand. It is also worth mentioning that, on the surface, the Fed does not currently have the intention of issuing central bank digital currency, but it approved the issuance of compliance stable currency (an anchored US dollar) last year. Nowadays, companies that issue US dollar stable currency are gradually increasing. And the market share in the crypto-asset market is getting higher and higher.

First, the spot BTC market

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At present, BTC has come to the support level of 8,600 US dollars, and the short-term quantity and amplitude are further shrinking, paying attention to the risk of short-term change. On the daily line, MACD is close to the zero line, and the market is uncertain.

Fund face

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As of 15:00, BTC's net outflow of funds today was 29.32 million yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 18,732,100 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 18,986,290 yuan, the middle of the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow of 324.32 million yuan, the small inflow (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 40,823,500 yuan. There are differences in the market, with a large net inflow of small single funds.

2. Fundamentals

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Yesterday, the average calculation power of BTC's entire network was 104.29 EH/s, which was a sharp rise from the previous day. It was close to a one-month high. The long-term uptrend has not changed. The number of active addresses on the chain is 727,600, which has rebounded from the previous day, nearly one month. The high point; the chain trading volume was 1.183 million, which was lower than the previous day, higher than the one-month average; the number of currency days destroyed was 3.931 million (historical value), which was significantly lower than the previous day, and the long-term uptrend was not destroyed.

Second, the spot ETH market

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On the daily line, ETH is in the triangle shock zone, and it continues to sideways in a short time; the ETH/BTC transaction continues to fluctuate slightly, and short-term linkage is mainly based on Bitcoin.

Fund face

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As of 15:00, ETH's net outflow of funds today was 42,046,100 yuan. Among them, the net inflow of oversized single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 26.517 million yuan, the net outflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 29.52 million yuan, and the net is between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan. The outflow of 161,391,100 yuan, the small outflow (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 275.07 million yuan. There are differences in the market, with a large outflow of small orders.

2. Fundamentals

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Observing DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp decreased slightly. The game application My Crypto Heroes has 24 hours of active users 2.8k, 24 hours change -8.83%; financial application MakerDAO's 24-hour active users 1.9k, 24 hours change +9.49%; quiz application Playtowin.io 24-hour active users The number is 1k, 24 hours change -0.79%.

Third, the spot LTC market

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Today, LTC has pulled up after the support of $58, and the relative performance is slightly stronger in the short term.

Fund face

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As of 15:00, the net outflow of LTC funds today was 22,872,200 yuan. Among them, the net inflow of oversized single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 13.20 million yuan, the net outflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 385.46 yuan, and the net outflow of medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) 131.25.35 million yuan, a small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 106.802 million yuan. There is a divergence in the market, with a net outflow of medium singles.

2. Fundamentals

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Yesterday, the average computing power of LTC's entire network was 180.87TH/s, a slight decrease from the previous day, close to the low point of eight months. After the halving of the block reward on August 05, the computing power has declined. There is no sign of recovery. Although it has not fallen below the low of the beginning of the year, the risk of stamping is greater. The number of active addresses on the LTC chain (61,000) has increased from the previous day, approaching the one-month average; the number of coins destroyed in the day is 2105.63 million (historically smaller), close to the one-month average.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

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Yesterday, EOS fell back slightly, and it has rebounded again. The short-term performance has turned from weak to strong.

Fund face

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As of 15:00, EOS's net outflow today was 12.36 million yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 20,498,800 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 4,522,500 yuan, the middle of the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow of 179.90 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 305.53 million yuan. There are differences in the market, with a large net inflow of small orders.

2. Fundamentals

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According to DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp continues to decline significantly. The number of 24-hour users of game EOS Dynasty is 1.6k, which is -5.70% compared with yesterday. The number of active users of Newdex's 24-hour active users is 739, which is -22.46% compared with yesterday. The number of active 24-hour users of Dice is 157. -56.75%.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is improving. At present, the high probability is in the stage of partial adjustment. The mad cow market is likely to arrive in the next one to two years. The relative price of the BTC of the smart contract platform leader ETH, the cottage coin LTC, and the DPoS leader EOS is close to the low of the year and can be properly configured.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

Bitcoin is currently close to the 200-day moving average, and it is expected to halve the market in the near future. If the position is not heavy, it can be bargain-hunting.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

Back support can be used in small positions, low suction and high throw, broken position and stop loss.

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VI. Appendix – Index Interpretation

1. Babbitt Composite Index

The Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) consists of the largest and most representative Tokens in the global market for existing blockchains to reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain Token market.

2. Bitcoin strength index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the conversion of Bitcoin in the entire Token market, which in turn reflects the competitive strength of Bitcoin in the market and is used to measure the extent to which Bitcoin changes the relative price of a basket of Tokens. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger the bitcoin in the Token market.

3.Alternative sentiment index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects the emotional changes in the market, with 0 meaning “extreme fear” and 100 meaning “extreme greed”. The indicators include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), trend (10%).

4.USDT Off-exchange Discount Index

The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. An index of 100 indicates USDT parity, an index greater than 100 indicates a USDT premium, and a value less than 100 indicates a USDT discount.

5. Google search trend

This refers to Google web search data results, the relative value of the search in the specified time and region: the hottest record of 100, the heat accounted for the highest half of 50, there is not enough data of 0. Note: The higher the score in a country, the higher the percentage of search terms in all local search terms, and does not mean the absolute number of searches.

6. Net inflow of funds (out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds from the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow of funds and the outflow of funds on the global exchange (not including false transactions), positive values ​​indicate net inflows of funds, while negative values ​​indicate net outflows of funds. Among them, the turnover is calculated as the inflow of funds when the rise, and the turnover is calculated as the outflow when the decline occurs.

7. Currency Day Destruction

Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days of Bitcoin holdings. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. BTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 100 million is the maximum value; 50 to 100 million is the larger value; 10 to 50 million is the median; less than or equal to 10 million is the smaller value. LTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 500 million is the maximum value; 100 million to 500 million is the larger value; 50 to 100 million is the median; less than or equal to 50 million is the smaller value.

8. Number of active addresses on the chain

The number of active addresses on the chain refers to the number of addresses in the chain address of the block chain. Usually, this indicator can reflect the activity level of a chain of a public chain, and the demand activities under the chain such as secondary market transactions and wallet use will have a greater impact on it.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.