QKL123 Quote Analysis | Bitcoin is a commodity or currency? Most countries are open-minded (1118)

Abstract: Recently, Bitcoin continues to shrink, and the altcoin is slightly stronger. The short-term market is more uncertain. At present, most countries or regions are open to Bitcoin, and most believe that Bitcoin is a currency or commodity.

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According to QKL123 statistics, at 13 o'clock on November 18, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 1,668.98 billion yuan, the total market value of 24 hours increased or decreased by +0.27%, the total turnover was 452.204 billion yuan, and the total turnover changed +13.99%. The market activity has rebounded. The Babbitt Composite Index reported 1,202.85 points, a 24-hour rise and fall of -0.01%, reflecting a slight decline in the broader market; the Bitcoin Strength Index was reported at 92.21 points, and the 24-hour rate was -0.35%. The relative performance of Bitcoin in the entire market was slightly Weakened; the Alternative sentiment index was 38, which was basically the same as yesterday (38), and the market sentiment was still fearful.

Among the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), XLM had the largest decline in 24 hours (-2.09%) and ETH had the largest increase in 24 hours (+0.66%). USDT has risen and fallen to -0.24% in 24 hours. Today's net outflow of funds was 2.749 million yuan, which was significantly lower than yesterday. USDC rose to -0.22% in 24 hours. The net inflow of funds today was 639.51 million, which was a significant increase from yesterday. The amount of the month; ChaiNext USDT off-site discount premium index reported 99.96, 24 hours up and down to +0.05%.

In the past day, Bitcoin's Google search relative value (peak 87) has rebounded from the previous value (peak 75), below the one-month average. The top seven countries in the heat are Nigeria (100), Ghana (56), South Africa (48), Austria (43), Germany (43), Switzerland (42) and Slovenia (36). In the past day, the global Ethereum's Google search relative value (peak 84) has rebounded from the previous value (peak 60), approaching the one-month average.

Analyst's point of view:

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Recently, the relevant domestic regulatory authorities have once again attacked the crypto-equity transactions. Shanghai has carried out the rectification of the virtual currency exchanges within its jurisdiction. The remediation activities include three categories: one is the domestic organization of virtual currency transactions; the other is the name of virtual currency. Illegal fundraising; third, the provision of publicity, agency trading and other services for virtual currency. It is very painful to use the name of the blockchain to carry out money-sending or fraudulent activities. The blow to such activities has long-term positive effects on the crypto-asset industry. However, if there is no corresponding regulatory measure to break away from the innovation project, it is still in the early stage of development. The industry will produce containment and short-term bearishness.

According to Coin Dance, 124 countries and regions in the world are currently open to regulatory attitudes on Bitcoin. Among them, 98 countries or regions believe that Bitcoin is legal, including the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, South Korea, Australia, the Netherlands, Spain and South Africa; 26 countries or regions have relatively neutral attitudes, including Argentina, Colombia, Malaysia and Tanzania. country. In addition, eight countries including China, India, Morocco and Zambia have restrictions on bitcoin; eight countries such as Afghanistan, Algeria, Bangladesh and Vietnam consider Bitcoin illegal.

At present, the definition of bitcoin is different in countries around the world. According to statistics (94 effective samples), 55 countries or regions believe that Bitcoin is Currency, and 28 countries or regions (including China) consider Bitcoin to be Commodity / Barter Good, and 9 countries or regions think Bitcoin is a property, and two countries consider bitcoin to be money.

In short, most countries or regions are open to Bitcoin, and most countries or regions believe that Bitcoin is a currency or commodity.

First, the spot BTC market

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Recently, BTC continued to shrink down, and currently fell below the short-term support of $8,600, but there is no significant heavy volume, there is a suspicion of a false breakthrough, pay attention to short-term risk. On the daily line, MACD is near the zero line, and the RSI is close to the oversold zone. The market is uncertain.

Fund face

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As of 15:00, BTC's net outflow of funds today was 2,217,579 yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 14387.12 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 11.5473 million yuan, in the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow was 35,716,900 yuan, and the net inflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 300,408,000 yuan. There are differences in the market, with a net outflow of medium-sized funds.

2. Fundamentals

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Yesterday, the average calculation power of the BTC network was 92.93 EH/s, which was slightly lower than the previous day and lower than the one-month average. The number of active addresses on the chain was 574,100, which was lower than the previous day, close to a one-month low; The trading volume was 610,200, which was lower than the previous day and was close to a one-month low. The number of coins destroyed was 1,713,600 (historically small), which was slightly higher than the previous day, and the long-term uptrend was not destroyed.

Second, the spot ETH market

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Relative to BTC, ETH is slightly stronger, still in the triangle shock range, waiting for the market to choose the direction.

Fund face

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As of 15:00, ETH's net outflow of funds today was 247,858,600 yuan. Among them, the net inflow of oversized single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 16.8717 million yuan, the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 5,091,300 yuan, and the net is between 10,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan. The outflow of 38.349 million yuan, the small outflow (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 231.5172 million yuan. There are differences in the market, the main force is much more, but the net outflow of small orders is the main.

2. Fundamentals

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Observing DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp decreased slightly. The game application My Crypto Heroes has 24 hours of active users 2.4k, 24-hour change -22.55%; financial application MakerDAO's 24-hour active users 1.9k, 24-hour change +17.38%; quiz application Playtowin.io 24-hour active users The number is 872, 24 hours change – 13.32%.

Third, the spot LTC market

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Similar to ETH, LTC is slightly stronger than Bitcoin, still oscillating above the support of $58, waiting for the direction of the broader market.

Fund face

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As of 15:00, the net outflow of LTC funds today was 118.251 million yuan. Among them, the net inflow of oversized single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 13.6366 million yuan, the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 2389.00 yuan, and the net outflow of medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) 961.17 million yuan, a small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 5,968,81 yuan. There are differences in the market, the main force is much more, but the net outflow is mostly in the middle.

2. Fundamentals

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Yesterday, the average computing power of LTC's entire network was 179.08TH/s, a slight increase from the previous day, close to the low point of eight months. After the halving of the block reward on August 05, the computing power has declined. There is no sign of recovery. Although it has not fallen below the low of the beginning of the year, the risk of stamping is greater. The number of active addresses on the LTC chain (48,700) decreased from the previous day, lower than the one-month average; the number of coins destroyed was 4.387 million (historically small), close to a one-month low.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

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Compared with BTC, EOS is slightly stronger in a short time, but the trend is still weak, and the uncertainty is short.

Fund face

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As of 15:00, EOS's net capital inflow today was 80,485,700 yuan. Among them, the overflow of large single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net flow of 5,764,900 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 759.207 million yuan, the middle of the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The inflow of 26.6922 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 27.8921 million yuan. There are differences in the market, the main force is much more, and the net inflow of large singles is mostly.

2. Fundamentals

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According to DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp has declined. The number of 24-hour users of game EOS Dynasty is 1.6k, which is -8.40% compared with yesterday; the number of active users of Newdex's 24-hour active application is 984, which is -4.93% compared with yesterday; the number of active 24-hour users of EOS Royale is 534. Change -9.49%.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is improving. At present, the high probability is in the stage of partial adjustment. The mad cow market is likely to arrive in the next one to two years. The relative price of the BTC of the smart contract platform leader ETH, the cottage coin LTC, and the DPoS leader EOS is close to the low of the year and can be properly configured.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

Bitcoin is currently close to the 200-day moving average, and it is expected to halve the market in the near future. If the position is not heavy, it can be bargain-hunting.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

The market is more uncertain and wait and see.

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VI. Appendix – Index Interpretation

1. Babbitt Composite Index

The Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) consists of the largest and most representative Tokens in the global market for existing blockchains to reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain Token market.

2. Bitcoin strength index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the conversion of Bitcoin in the entire Token market, which in turn reflects the competitive strength of Bitcoin in the market and is used to measure the extent to which Bitcoin changes the relative price of a basket of Tokens. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger the bitcoin in the Token market.

3.Alternative sentiment index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects the emotional changes in the market, with 0 meaning “extreme fear” and 100 meaning “extreme greed”. The indicators include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), trend (10%).

4.USDT Off-exchange Discount Index

The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. An index of 100 indicates USDT parity, an index greater than 100 indicates a USDT premium, and a value less than 100 indicates a USDT discount.

5. Google search trend

This refers to Google web search data results, the relative value of the search in the specified time and region: the hottest record of 100, the heat accounted for the highest half of 50, there is not enough data of 0. Note: The higher the score in a country, the higher the percentage of search terms in all local search terms, and does not mean the absolute number of searches.

6. Net inflow of funds (out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds from the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow of funds and the outflow of funds on the global exchange (not including false transactions), positive values ​​indicate net inflows of funds, while negative values ​​indicate net outflows of funds. Among them, the turnover is calculated as the inflow of funds when the rise, and the turnover is calculated as the outflow when the decline occurs.

7. Currency Day Destruction

Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days of Bitcoin holdings. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. BTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 100 million is the maximum value; 50 to 100 million is the larger value; 10 to 50 million is the median; less than or equal to 10 million is the smaller value. LTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 500 million is the maximum value; 100 million to 500 million is the larger value; 50 to 100 million is the median; less than or equal to 50 million is the smaller value.

8. Number of active addresses on the chain

The number of active addresses on the chain refers to the number of addresses in the chain address of the block chain. Usually, this indicator can reflect the activity level of a chain of a public chain, and the demand activities under the chain such as secondary market transactions and wallet use will have a greater impact on it.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.