QKL123 market analysis | The market quickly fell, and then the boundary between the bull and the bear (1119)

Abstract: At present, Bitcoin has returned to the position after the plunge at the end of September (around 8,000 US dollars). The market is once again facing the boundary between bulls and bears. If there is a drop in volume, the market will be worried. Otherwise, the probability will continue to bottom out.

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According to QKL123 statistics, at 13:00 on November 19, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 1,609.675 billion yuan, the total market value of 24-hour increased or decreased by -3.67%, the total turnover was 514.401 billion yuan, and the total turnover changed by +13.09%. Market activity has increased. The Babbitt Composite Index reported 11531.52 points, up 24 hours to -4.11%, reflecting the rapid decline of the broader market; the Bitcoin Strength Index reported 92.95 points, 24 hours up + 1.03%, and the relative performance of Bitcoin in the market became stronger; The sentiment index was 32, which was lower than yesterday (38), and the market sentiment was still fearful.

Among the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), XLM had the largest drop in 24 hours (-8.42%) and ETH had the smallest drop in 24-hour (-3.24%). USDT 24 hours up and down to +0.19%, today's net capital inflow of 3,837.33 million, compared with yesterday's reverse; USDC 24 hours up and down to +0.38%, today's net outflow of 6,071,100 yuan, compared with yesterday's reversal; ChaiNext USDT The OTC Index was reported at 99.84, with a 24-hour rise to -0.06%.

In the past day, Bitcoin's Google search relative value (peak 95) has rebounded from the previous value (peak 89), still below the one-month average. The top seven countries in the heat are Nigeria (100), Ghana (49), South Africa (44), Austria (43), Finland (42), Germany (41) and Switzerland (38). Among them, Finland's Bitcoin Google search relative value (peak 100) increased significantly from the previous value (peak 30). In the past day, the global Ethereum's Google search relative value (peak 70) has fallen back from the previous value (peak 90), below the one-month average.

Analyst's point of view:

Recently, Bitcoin has not stabilized the 200-day moving average. Although there is no significant heavy volume decline, the performance of the disk is extremely weak, and the market pessimism has surged. At present, Bitcoin has once again returned to the vicinity of 8,000 US dollars after the sharp fall at the end of September. If there is a significant volume break in this position, the long-term upward trend will have a greater possibility of deterioration. Otherwise, the market will have a high probability of oscillating around the 200-day moving average, and will be close to half a year to halve.

First, the spot BTC market

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Today, BTC continues to shrink, and it is supported by around 8,000 US dollars. The daily RSI is nearing oversold, and the short-term market is likely to rebound.

Fund face

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As of 15:00, BTC's net outflow of funds today was 38,102,250 yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow is 75,541,200 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow is 86,905,500 yuan, and the medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow of 158.518 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 618.33 million yuan. The market is consistently bearish, with a net outflow of the main funds.

2. Fundamentals

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Yesterday, the average calculation power of BTC's entire network was 102.41 EH/s, which was a rebound from the previous day, close to a one-month high; the number of active addresses on the chain was 675,900, which was a little higher than the previous day, close to the one-month average; The amount was 13.29 million, which was higher than the previous day, higher than the one-month average; the number of coins destroyed was 14.56 million (the historical median), which was significantly higher than the previous day, and the long-term trend was not destroyed.

Second, the spot ETH market

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Relative to BTC, ETH continued to perform slightly stronger. Today, there is a heavy volume in the short-term, but the daily line is shrinking. It is close to the oversold range, so be careful to reduce the volume below the support.

Fund face

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As of 15:00, ETH's net outflow of funds today was 839.117 million yuan. Among them, the over-single (more than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow is 71,174,700 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow is 40,285,400 yuan, and the medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow was 31,115,500 yuan, and the net outflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 4,154,420 yuan. The market is consistently bearish, with a small net outflow.

2. Fundamentals

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Observing the DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp has rebounded. The game application My Crypto Heroes has a 24-hour active user number of 3.3k, 24 hours change +36.02%; financial application MakerDAO's 24-hour active users number 3k, 24 hours change +52.89%.

Third, the spot LTC market

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LTC is weak, the trend is similar to BTC, and it also returns to the shock range of two months ago. Short-term attention to whether the support below 52 US dollars will be broken by the volume.

Fund face

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As of 15:00, the net outflow of LTC funds today was 170,253,300 yuan. Among them, the net inflow of super large single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 8,079,900 yuan, the net outflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 892.19 yuan, and the net outflow of medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) 10,159,440 yuan, a small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 67,814,900 yuan. The market is bearish, but the main force is divided, with a net outflow of the middle single.

2. Fundamentals

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Yesterday, the average computing power of LTC's entire network was 192.02TH/s, a slight increase from the previous day, close to the low point of eight months. After the halving of the block reward on August 05, the computing power has declined. There is no sign of recovery. Although it has not fallen below the low of the beginning of the year, the risk of stamping is greater. The number of active addresses on the LTC chain (81,100) increased significantly from the previous day, approaching a one-month high; the number of coins destroyed was 38,272,100 (historically small), close to a one-month high.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

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In the early hours of the morning, EOS fell for a short period of time, with the biggest drop of more than 10%. It gained support support at 3.0 US dollars, and it was necessary to prevent the heavy volume from falling below the risk.

Fund face

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As of 15:00, EOS's net outflow of funds today was 31,464,500 yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow was 2,247,600 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow was 18.3617 million yuan, and the medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow of 117,654,200 yuan, the small outflow (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 15,699,300 yuan. The market is consistently bearish, with a small net outflow.

2. Fundamentals

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According to DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp has dropped significantly. The EOS Dynasty's 24-hour user number is 1.4k, which is -14.26% compared with yesterday. The number of 24-hour active users who use Newdex for trading is 961, which is -5.78% compared with yesterday. The number of active 24-hour users of EOS Royale is 338. Change -37.41%.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is improving. At present, the high probability is in the stage of partial adjustment. The mad cow market is likely to arrive in the next one to two years. The relative price of the BTC of the smart contract platform leader ETH, the cottage coin LTC, and the DPoS leader EOS is close to the low of the year and can be properly configured.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

Bitcoin is currently close to the 200-day moving average, and it is expected to halve the market in the near future. If the position is not heavy, it can be bargain-hunting.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

The market is unstable and wait and see.

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VI. Appendix – Index Interpretation

1. Babbitt Composite Index

The Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) consists of the largest and most representative Tokens in the global market for existing blockchains to reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain Token market.

2. Bitcoin strength index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the conversion of Bitcoin in the entire Token market, which in turn reflects the competitive strength of Bitcoin in the market and is used to measure the extent to which Bitcoin changes the relative price of a basket of Tokens. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger the bitcoin in the Token market.

3.Alternative sentiment index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects the emotional changes in the market, with 0 meaning “extreme fear” and 100 meaning “extreme greed”. The indicators include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), trend (10%).

4.USDT Off-exchange Discount Index

The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. An index of 100 indicates USDT parity, an index greater than 100 indicates a USDT premium, and a value less than 100 indicates a USDT discount.

5. Google search trend

This refers to Google web search data results, the relative value of the search in the specified time and region: the hottest record of 100, the heat accounted for the highest half of 50, there is not enough data of 0. Note: The higher the score in a country, the higher the percentage of search terms in all local search terms, and does not mean the absolute number of searches.

6. Net inflow of funds (out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds from the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow of funds and the outflow of funds on the global exchange (not including false transactions), positive values ​​indicate net inflows of funds, while negative values ​​indicate net outflows of funds. Among them, the turnover is calculated as the inflow of funds when the rise, and the turnover is calculated as the outflow when the decline occurs.

7. Currency Day Destruction

Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days of Bitcoin holdings. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. BTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 100 million is the maximum value; 50 to 100 million is the larger value; 10 to 50 million is the median; less than or equal to 10 million is the smaller value. LTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 500 million is the maximum value; 100 million to 500 million is the larger value; 50 to 100 million is the median; less than or equal to 50 million is the smaller value.

8. Number of active addresses on the chain

The number of active addresses on the chain refers to the number of addresses in the chain address of the block chain. Usually, this indicator can reflect the activity level of a chain of a public chain, and the demand activities under the chain such as secondary market transactions and wallet use will have a greater impact on it.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.