Author | Martin Young
The current trend in Bitcoin seems to be forming a bearish momentum as Bitcoin failed to return to $9,000 last weekend. The downtrend seems to have resumed, so some analysts are now turning their attention to long-term prospects.
- Trend analysis: The transaction volume of the Bitcoin chain exceeds the on-chain, and the main application scenarios tend to be centralized
- “High-yield” and “unsecured”? The rivers and lakes behind the digital currency derivative industry chain
- China Economic Weekly | Huang Qifan: 8 application scenarios of blockchain technology, 3 issues to be guarded against
- Ethereum Istanbul Upgrade Announcement (Full Text)
- The Central Political Bureau collectively learns the blockchain technology to transmit the signal? Interpretation of the former chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Xiao Gang
- The undead black swan: from ICO to IEO
4 bitcoin price scenarios
In addition to short-term traders seeking quick profit, most people's interest in Bitcoin is long-term. Bitcoin is still a very risky asset, but if these risks are rewarded, the return can be huge. If Bitcoin can fulfill its mission as the world's major wealth reserve currency, just holding a little bit of bitcoin can change people's lives.
Trader and analyst Alex Kruger has been studying the possible future of bitcoin prices and the role of Bitcoin in the global financial system. He said in the tweet that Bitcoin has four long-term prospects:
In the first case, Bitcoin becomes the global reserve currency and the current bitcoin holders will become very rich. However, this is unlikely because of its inherent price instability, and a few whales control the supply of Bitcoin in an unhealthy manner.
In the second case, the scarcity of Bitcoin continues to push up the bitcoin price. Bitcoin continues to outperform the market. Investors performed exceptionally well.
In the third case, Bitcoin, like most commodities, entered a larger price range after several large increases.
The fourth situation is a nightmare: bitcoin prices have fallen to near zero, making this asset worthless.
Subsequent survey results show that 47% of the more than 4,500 respondents believe that the third possibility is the most significant (see above), and 45% of the respondents believe that the interval above $100,000 is completely reasonable ( See the picture below), but it may take several years to achieve this goal.
Some respondents question the threat of quantum computing to bitcoin, but it is widely believed that encryption algorithms will evolve as technology advances.
Of course, some people say that the prospect of Bitcoin is bleak, such as the entire network becomes unsustainable:
“The halving of the future is unsustainable, because miners must constantly redeem the legal currency to pay for electricity and ensure cyber security. When no one else buys these bags (bitcoin), everything is over. BTC is already a payment network Failed, now there is only one empty shell of 'value store'."
This is an extreme long-term view, as Bitcoin will approach its maximum supply in the future. Halving occurs every four years, so this can happen if there is pressure on the source of electricity.
However, as Bitcoin continues to move on the road that began 10 years ago, people are generally optimistic about the foreseeable future.
[The copyright of the article belongs to the original author, and its content and opinions do not represent the Unitimes position. Reprinted articles only to disseminate more valuable information, please contact us at email@example.com or add WeChat unitimes2018 for cooperation or authorized contact.