A deep understanding of the role of luck in cryptocurrency investment: whether the quilt is to cut the meat or the dead bar

A long time ago, one day, I went to Beijing on the bus back to Beijing. The average bus departure interval is 15 minutes. After waiting for 8 minutes, I was already in a hurry and things were a little anxious. At this time, I should take a car and save time. But think about it, I have waited for 8 minutes, can't wait, the most unlucky will have to wait for 7 minutes. Continue to wait, save the taxi fare.

It’s been another 5 minutes, and the bus is not coming. I am in a hurry, thinking again, coming soon. Thinking about it, this bus will not be in a car accident in front of it, not yet. But I still have the luck to continue.

The result was another 5 minutes and the car hadn't come yet. I counted the left side and thought that I was sure that the bus would come in the next minute. I have already waited for 18 minutes. It’s coming soon.

Finally, after waiting for 25 minutes, the bus has not come yet, I finally took a taxi.

Waiting for the bus's mentality is very tangled, continue to wait, and do not know when it will arrive, there may be a car accident in front. Don't wait, the bus is still a good start, and it has been waiting for so long. It should be in the next few minutes. In this way, the time is spent.

In 2018, I bought a coin, a small currency. The average price of the opening is 8 cents. After buying it, it has been held for a long time, and it is not warm. It is basically the normal price fluctuation of the currency circle, plus or minus 20%. But by 2019, the buddy began to feel discouraged and kept falling.

When I fell to only 6 hairs, I thought, should I stop the loss? Reluctant, squatting.

When I fell to 4 hairs, I thought that they have all fallen by half. Otherwise, I will make up the position, so I will go back faster when I go up. Then I added some more money.

As a result, this buddy is still leaking. It fell to 2 hairs. I saw, good guys, they are so cheap. It should not fall any more. Also made up some positions.

When I fell to 1 hair, I panicked. This currency will not be directly returned to zero. Various kinds of information, but still not damaged. I am lucky.

It fell to 8 cents. I saw, good guy, there is no money left in the stop loss, it makes no sense. Count the ball, pull it down, damn where to die.

You see, investment is like waiting for a bus. The longer you wait, the more you want to wait. Finally, you missed it. You are late for work, you are fined, and the full attendance award is gone. Knowing this, I should take a taxi for the first time.

Investing in buying coins, if the price falls, whether it is a short position or a stop loss, this is a big problem. The stop loss is to cut the meat and make the book loss a reality. But the stop loss can prevent further losses on the asset.

A short position can lower the price of the position and reduce the pressure of the increase. But it may lead to even worse evaporating book assets.

In the case of falling prices of investment products, whether it is a stop loss or a short position, I don't know the answer. Because I can't know if the next price is up or down.

I have a very successful job of making up the position and then making a lot of money. There are also timely stop losses, which keep most of the investment in the principal. There is also a simple death, inexplicably made a strange thing.

It seems that earning money depends on luck, and losing money depends on luck.

Every time there is an investment failure, the book is losing money, and there is a voice in our brain: Hey, if you didn’t buy it at the time. Or, conversely, it would be nice to buy someone else's coin at the time.

If you have a dream come true, wake up and you find that your account has really modified your investment strategy as you might think. Do you think you will be able to make a fortune?

Just like someone is a lottery ticket, it is also a kind of magic coming, suddenly making a windfall. You are the magic of this dream is a lottery. But statistics tell me that this is useless.

People who bought Bitcoin as early as 2011, I know, there are 5 in-depth exchanges. It’s not the kind that I only bought a few dollars, but I bought it on a thousand. Five people, without exception, have not yet reached a high position in the accumulation of wealth. I started to buy coins in 2014, and I know more. Most people have only a little improvement in wealth, and only a small number of people have a qualitative leap.

In 2013, the National Financial Education Foundation of the United States counted the lottery players in the United States, and 70% of the winners went bankrupt within seven years.

In terms of the accumulation of wealth, it is impossible to rely on luck. It depends on one's earning system. Luck is too random to rely on. When luck is really on your head, even if you get a lot of money, you can really make some good days, but if you don't improve your system, you will eventually return to the average.

A bad luck will definitely cause the investment capital to shrink, and even the principal will be zero. But it does not mean that you will have no hope in life.

I have a friend. On September 25, 2019, the total price of the currency fell sharply, and a lot of coins were lost on the futures. Very desperate to say, I have earned so many coins since then. Yes, he is a 90-year-old family earned from scratch. He has his wealth management system and his income comes from the dry Taobao store. His Taobao shop team is very small, only 4 people, he is the boss part-time CTO, invited two customer service a translator, an average of 4 million a year. In November alone, he earned 1 million. I believe he will recover soon.

If we make a mistake in our life, don't regret it. The only correct way is to do more correct things in the days to come and dilute the mistakes.

If we do something right in our lives, the correct way is to do more and correct things in the days to come, and to consolidate what was once.

The American meteorologist Lorenz proposed the famous butterfly effect in 1963.

The movement of the butterfly's wings causes the air system around it to change and causes the generation of weak airflow, which in turn causes corresponding changes in the air or other systems around it, causing a chain reaction that eventually leads to other systems. Great change.


The problem is, the tornado of the tornado, destroying our homeland, can we blame the butterfly? If it is a tornado caused by butterflies, why don't we catch butterflies and kill them.

Smart as you, you must know that this problem is ridiculous. Butterfly flapping wings is just one of countless tiny random events. Killing a butterfly can't stop a tornado.

In the investment activities, random events leading to losses are everywhere, and you have no regulations to avoid all negative random events. Random events that also lead to earning money are also frequent, and you should not eliminate randomness.

The butterfly club will flap its wings, people will always make mistakes, and investment will always fall. The key is that the system must have a fault tolerance rate. The key to achieving a good investment result is that your system of making money must have a fault tolerance rate.

A good investment system must recognize the weight of luck, establish a fault tolerance rate for bad luck, and maintain acceptance of good luck.

When bad luck comes, don't regret it. A bad luck, an investment gains and losses, does not affect the overall situation. The key is that we should immediately abandon the “sinking cost” and make a decision from the moment, cutting the meat or making up the position.

From the psychological point of view, we are always in love, always remember the price we bought at the high position, as an anchor point. The essence of the old is not self-confidence, do not believe that there are better opportunities in the future, so just stay in the original fantasy miracle.

It is very convenient to take a bus in Shenzhen now. You can use your mobile phone to search and locate the bus you want to wait at home. If you are too far away from your station and you want to save time, you can take a taxi. If you want to save tens of dollars to buy a book to read, you can also watch the bus arrival time on the mobile phone, and pick up the bus at the station.

This is a good system, although this has nothing to do with investment, I just feel a little bit.