On November 21st, Beijing time, Jia Nan Zhi Zhi will land on NASDAQ in the United States and become the "first block of the blockchain." After eight years of ups and downs, after several twists and turns, Jia Nan Zhizhi finally has to take the first step in the listing for the blockchain industry. On the afternoon of the 21st, the interview with the Babbitt community, SheKnows, invited the "New Third Board" godfather and Dr. Cheng Xiaoming, Dr. Cheng Xiaoming, and the analyst of Guosheng Securities Block Chain Research Institute, Sun Shuang and F2Pool COO, together with Babbitt senior reporter Qiu Xiangyu. Talk about IPO and mining machines.
Part1: After many years of enthusiasm, it has finally become a positive result.
Jianan Zhizhi listed a wave of twists and turns, from backdoor A shares, listing the new three boards, to the Hong Kong stocks, to rumors landing on the board, and finally listed on the Nasdaq. I have almost visited the capital markets of China and the United States. After three years of swaying, I am finally making a positive result. The listing of Jianan Zhizhi is a milestone in the blockchain industry, which means that the blockchain field is becoming mature, and more blockchain companies will be listed in the future.
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Moderator: Please invite the guests to talk about the key points of their own research and talk about the views on Jianan's listing.
Cheng Xiaoming : Everyone is concerned about the listing of the company at this time. In fact, it is not entirely because the company itself is more concerned about the attitude of the securities market to the blockchain-related companies and the attitude towards the development of the blockchain industry, especially China. The attitude of the securities regulatory authority of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and then the attitude of the Chinese government to the industry . If it is a company in the general industry, let alone go to the US, even if you go to the moon, I am afraid that there is not such a big concern. As for the mood at this time, it is always a good thing. First of all, I would like to express my congratulations to Jia Nan.
Big Fish : In November, Jia Nan’s wisdom was well received by everyone. I think it’s not just because of “the first block of the blockchain”, but actually because of the listing of Jianan Zhizhi, let the traditional industry, capital, new The user's injection into the blockchain industry has completely opened up the public's expectation for the entire blockchain industry .
Sun Shuang : Jia Nan is listed on the market and represents the recognition of the “traditional” financial market and “Old Money” for the emerging technology industry . It is worthy of congratulations. Whether it is for Jianan Zhizhi itself or for the blockchain industry, it has a positive effect. For Jianan Zhizhi itself, listing means more funding sources. When negotiating with suppliers such as suppliers, to some extent, an organization has an endorsement. For the blockchain industry, the listing of Jianan means higher social attention and greater development space, and the confidence of practitioners may be greatly improved. Moderator: Cheng is always the "new three-board godfather" and is very familiar with the new three board market. In your opinion, what is the reason why Jianan Zhizhi, who is the first in the mining machine and the first block of the blockchain, is not listed on the New Third Board?
Cheng Xiaoming : The listing of companies in our country is not a question of investment and financing. It is not a question of being willing to sell stocks, someone willing to buy stocks, you can go public, and it also involves the guidance of national industrial policies. The New Third Board is also a market managed by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. It is the third national securities trading place in China that is clearly defined by the State Council. Therefore, enterprises listed on the New Third Board must also meet the scope of encouragement and support of the national industrial policy. Although the NDRC will remove mining from the elimination industry, it does not mean that it is a state-backed industry, at least until now, which involves the company's industrial positioning, and the blockchain is a very broad industrial orientation. What kind of industry is the company, the latter question should be involved.
In addition, it should be pointed out that many companies have listed shares in the New Third Board. However, because the New Third Board trading is not active, it is not attractive enough for enterprises. More than 3,000 companies including the Company have taken the initiative to delist from the New Third Board. Because the previous New Three Boards were not attractive enough, the requirements for listing companies were not very strict. The company had only had the opportunity to list the new three boards, although he later took the initiative to delist. The problem now is that the trading of the New Third Board will soon be resolved. The reform of the New Third Board has been officially launched. If the company in the blockchain industry can be listed on the New Third Board, I am afraid it will be a problem. It is clear that if there is another blockchain company similar to the company to the new three boards to list, I am afraid it will be very difficult. Moderator: Mr. Sun is in Guosheng Securities. From the perspective of securities researcher, Jianan Zhizhi has repeatedly suffered setbacks in the capital market, reflecting the characteristics of domestic securities regulators. What is the most important factor for Jia Nan’s successful listing in the United States?
Sun Shuang : Compared with A-shares, US stocks have lower profit requirements for companies; compared with Hong Kong stocks, the listing rules of US stocks are clearer. The listing of Jianan is the result of joint efforts of the company itself, service organizations and regulatory agencies.
Moderator: Jia Nan Zhi Zhi once launched the world's first 7nm mass production chip in August 2018. However, according to media reports, many miners have not seen the A921 mining machine equipped with 7nm chips. Since then, Jia Nan Zhizhi has intentionally abandoned the 7nm chip and switched to the 16nm chip. As the world's first mining machine to launch 7nm chips, Jia Nan Zhi Zhi, why give up 7nm chips?
Big fish : First, due to the limitations of the process at the time, the yield of the 7nm chip was too low, which limited the shipment on the one hand and raised the cost of the mining machine on the other hand.
The second is the first product, mostly pioneering, the first 7nm mining machine, lack of reference and market inspection , performance mining is not enough, more is an attempt and experiment. The performance of the product is not a qualitative leap compared to the 16nm model of the same period. This is also a reason for temporarily giving up 7nm and turning to 16nm.
Third, the market was in a downturn at the time. It was foreseeable that in the mining industry, the profit margin was sharply compressed, the sales of new mining machines were affected, and the 16nm chip mining machine with mature products and processes was a relatively more secure choice.
Part2: After the listing, is it the final game or the starting point?
Moderator: Zhang Nanxuan said in May of this year that it would take three years to realize the mine and AI business income of 1:1. In 2019, the company's AI business income is expected to reach tens of millions of yuan. At the same time, in May of this year, Wu Jihan said that the transition to the AI field is a natural choice for Bitumn. It is expected that AI chips will account for 40% of the revenue of Bitcoin in the next five years. Excuse me, what is the probability that the two companies will succeed in their goals? What are the differences between the two AI businesses, and will the two be higher in the AI battlefield in the future?
Cheng Xiaoming : The mining machine industry is mainly the design of chips, and AI, mainly algorithms, should be said to be two different industries, but the transformation of the mining industry companies to the AI industry has a certain foundation. Two aspects: First, the talent base, although one is to do hardware, one is to do software, but the big industry belongs to the it class, the professional background has similar places; second, the mining machine business, these have done for the company The original accumulation, the company has the money to recruit people can invest. I hope that both companies will succeed, and I hope that they will continue to compete in the AI market and jointly promote the development of China's AI industry.
Big Fish : The mining industry has made the emerging technology companies such as Jianan Zhizhi and Bitian, how to continue to make money, and how to maintain the high growth trend is a new test. The main business is mining machines, and AI smart chips are also expected in the future. AI smart chip + blockchain chip = future layout .
Sun Shuang : Compared with the mining machine business, the AI business is less affected by the bitcoin price, and it also has a certain relationship with Jianan's existing chip design. It is a business direction worth trying. Moderator: The prospect of AI is very good, but how to cut in as a business is a problem. For example, Keda Xunfei and Sogou, who do speech recognition, are bleak in the secondary market. All in AI's Baidu is also abandoned by investors. Therefore, what kind of unknown problems will Jianan’s AI layout?
Sun Shuang : The problems that may be encountered include several aspects. For example, the competition in the market competition may be fierce, and it is difficult to expand the subdivision scenarios.
Moderator: According to media reports, due to the lack of financing ability, Jia Nan Zhizhi has a weak voice in the process of cooperation with chip supplier TSMC. The listing, the funds raised is only about 100 million US dollars, not much. So after the listing, will it change the right to speak in the supplier?
Sun Shuang : The specific facts are subject to the company's disclosure. We believe that the significance of listing is not only financing, but also giving Jianan partners a better understanding of Jianan's opportunities through prospectus and teleconferences, which will help reduce the information asymmetry between the two parties and help Jianan gain the trust of the partners .
Cheng Xiaoming : The essence of listing is that the company's shares can be traded. The company's stock has a market price, and then a certain discount according to the stock price, for continuous refinancing, thus completely solving the problem of the company's continued financing. As for the amount of financing when ipo is not important, the key to listing is to open up the space for the company to continue financing, giving the company a credit line for continued financing. So whether it changes the supplier's right to speak, this can not be based on the amount of this financing, the key is to see the ability of the capital market financing function after the company's listing. Just kidding, if I hired me as the company's financial advisor, I can definitely help the company solve this problem, not because of my ability, but because the company is listed. Moderator: In the past two years, the China Stock Exchange has undergone a wonderful change. First, Baidu in BAT has gradually been abandoned by investors, and the risks of technology stocks have once again been revealed. In addition, almost all of the new economic companies listed in the US were “blood washed” and the stock price was terrible. What is the cause of this situation? Will Jianan Zhizhi face a "blood wash" situation?
Sun Shuang : Now I have not verified whether this is a "blood wash" of the stock market. I only say that if it is true, there are some possible reasons: 1) These companies may be mostly Internet companies, and in recent years, the domestic Internet dividends have been collected. Tight, enter the time of competition for stock flow; 2) For some financial companies (such as P2P), domestic policies in recent years tend to rectify and clean up such institutions. Jianan's business is different from the above companies.
Moderator: Jia Nan Zhizhi's main revenue depends on the mining machine sales, and the bitcoin market is closely related, so it is a strong cyclical stock, is the cyclical stock worth holding? What is the valuation logic? What are the objects of the capital market that can be benchmarked?
Cheng Xiaoming : Promising company stocks are worth having, and there is no necessary relationship with the company whether it is a cyclical stock. The valuation logic is still the company's future development prospects . The main reason is the company's development status, but the profit index is not the only criterion. Some companies continue to lose money, but they still have value. When I value the company, I mainly look at two indicators. The first is to look at the industry , the development prospects of the industry , and the second is to look at the company's people , mainly the leader.
There are also some cyclical industries such as construction machinery and shipbuilding. Traditionally, we look at the company's performance in one year or one year. The so-called cyclical stock is that its performance cycle is longer than one year. This does not matter. Moderator: Jianan Zhizhi's mining machine sales are closely related to bitcoin prices, while bitcoin prices are strongly related to policies. So from the perspective of ROI, is it current to buy stocks, mining machines or bitcoins?
Cheng Xiaoming : First consider the rate of return, first consider the risk. Regarding the purchase of stock mining machines or bitcoin, the three targets are from a risk point of view, from high to low, the order should be bitcoin, mining machine, stock. As for a specific investor who should buy which subject matter, it depends on his risk appetite. If you pursue high risk and high income, then you can buy high risk bitcoin. If you are risk averse, then you buy Stocks. Of course, risk is not a danger, it is just uncertainty.
Big fish : It's all right. As the “first block of the blockchain”, Jianan Zhizhi is in an up-and-coming, emerging industry, and the future is worth looking forward to. Whether it is stocks, mining machines or bitcoin, at present, there is a high return on investment. For investors, stocks may be a relatively easy channel to contact. Buying bitcoin requires a little learning cost and is easier. If you buy a mining machine, you need to consider it comprehensively. It involves transportation, custody, and fixed electricity expenses. It takes some effort to do research and evaluation, integrate your own situation, and judge whether it is suitable for investment in mining machines. Moderator: From the prospectus of Jia Nan Zhi Zhi, the main income comes from the A8 series mining machine. However, according to the fish pond data, there is no A8 series in the daily net income Top5 mining machine. Therefore, which of the current mining machines has the strongest strength, and what are the indicators for judging? Which is the most widely deployed miner model in the industry?
Big fish : Like the mobile phone brand, each brand has its own high-end models and regular models. At present, each manufacturer has its own fist products at all levels. Avalon 11 series, as Avalon's top performance products, does not lose other competing products. In conventional models, the A9 and A8 series of mining machines are also among the best.
The fish tank's mining net daily income list, not only the A8 does not enter the Top5, all the regular models (such as S9, M10, etc.), the same. The performance of the new generation of mining machines is indeed much better than the A8.
At present, there is no way to simply say which machine is the strongest , because investors, after purchasing the mining machine, are to comprehensively evaluate the cost performance of the mining machine, the income expectation, the return cycle, etc., the power consumption and calculation power of the mining machine The impact is not a simple positive or negative correlation, but also consider the investor's own power resources (cost of electricity), market conditions (currency). It is possible that the mining machine, which is more difficult for A investors, is very valuable for B investors.
The most widely deployed miners in the industry should be S9 . Moderator: As bitcoin is halved, a new round of arms races for mining machine manufacturers is being staged. At present, the ant mining machine S19 (30W) and Shenma mining machine M30S (38W) are in the state of the film, it is expected that the mass production time of both will be in the first quarter of 2020. At the same time, the Avalon A11 mining machine (46W) produced by Jianan will also be mass-produced in the first quarter of 2020. Please ask the big fish for everyone to advance in advance, how this military competition will be interpreted and the impact.
Big fish : Mining is essentially a process of relying on computer chips to make hash collisions. From the September of 2013, the world's first Avalon mining machine was mass-produced. From then on, the mining machine embarked on a truly specialized road, and the mining industry's large pattern was basically determined this year. The fish pond was also established in the same year. The fish pond is the earliest bitcoin mining pool in China. Our multiple currencies have the largest computing power in the world. Later, with the continuous expansion of professional mining machines, today it is already the world of 7nm mining machines. The arrival of the new generation of mining machine era can be said to be a breakthrough in research and development in the blockchain and encrypted digital currency industries. After the 7nm mining machine enters the market, it is predicted that the computing power of Bitcoin will be as high as 200E next year.
For the miners, in the purchase of mining machines, the core that miners value most is still cost-effective, and the cycle is faster. From the power consumption, computing power and price of the chip, these three indicators determine the price/performance ratio of this mining machine, so it is good to sell. Miners who buy large, low-power mining machines will buy them. With the halving of bitcoin production and the fluctuation of the currency price in May next year, the mining machine below 30T will face elimination. Of course, this process is gradual. For now, some A821 and S9 are still energized. Moderator: Alibaba has not listed in Hong Kong because of the "different rights of the same stock". In April 2018, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange revised the main board listing rules, allowing companies with "different shares of the same stock" to be listed in Hong Kong, and Ali will return to Hong Kong stocks. Jia Nan Zhi Zhi is also "different rights in the same stock", but was refused to be listed because Li Xiaojia knocked "the mining machine manufacturer does not meet the Shanghai Stock Exchange's listing adaptability principle", so when he went to the US to go public this time, Jia Nanxun is smart and has positioned himself as a "supercomputing solution provider." Then, from the perspective of development, is there any possibility that Jianan will return to Hong Kong stocks in the future?
Cheng Xiaoming : Obviously the company is very active in listing in Hong Kong, but the problem is that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is limited to the listing of mining machine manufacturers. The company will position itself as a supercomputing solution provider to solve the restrictions on Hong Kong trading, depending on the attitude of the Hong Kong exchange on this matter. If he welcomes you, then he can say anything; if he does not welcome you, even if you change your industry label, he may still refuse.
Back to the industry positioning. The core of the industry positioning is not to look at the application area of your product, but the technology behind the product. I don't know much about the mining machine industry. My guess is that the company's main business is chip design. Then the design plan is entrusted to TSMC to produce chips, and then it is assembled into a mining machine, which is a computer dedicated to mining. The company should belong to the chip design industry, so this time it will position itself as a supercomputing solution, which refers more to the application field. This is my chip, this mining machine is used for computing solutions, but this can not be called the industry, this should be called the application field, to see what industry a company is, the easiest way is to ask the company's CTO what is the specialty.
I think there is a possibility of returning to Hong Kong stocks.
Part3: From the listing of Jia Nan Zhi Zhi, look at the future of the blockchain
Moderator: In the Internet industry, there is an unwritten consensus: "The second child will die." Mining machine manufacturers are the most mature industries in the blockchain field. From the perspective of industry concentration, the top three basically divide the market share. Judging from the scale of mining machine sales, Jia Nan is not as good as the bit mainland, and is in the position of “second child” in the industry. What is the impact of this preemptive listing on Bitcoin? What impact will it have on the mining industry pattern?
Big Fish : Bitland, Jianan Zhizhi and Yibang International strive to show themselves as chip makers, not only for mining machines, but also for other industries using artificial intelligence and blockchain technologies. The listing of Jianan Zhizhi has boosted the confidence of the blockchain practitioners. In terms of industry reputation and influence, this listing has greatly helped and promoted Jianan Zhizhi. It is believed that Jianan's listing will make the industry's competition and cooperation more fully, better promote the development of the industry, and avoid a single situation.
The listing will definitely have a major impact on the industry. The reason is not that the company is listed, but more importantly, the company is from Hangzhou . Now China's five cities are competing, who will be the boss of China's blockchain industry, and the north and the Guangzhou-Shenzhen plus Hangzhou. Among the five cities, Shenzhen and Hangzhou are not the largest, but the vitality seems to be the strongest, the company and The competition in Bitland is, in a sense, the competition between Hangzhou and Beijing .
The central conference lecturer on the blockchain comes from Hangzhou. Don't underestimate Hangzhou's determination and strength in the blockchain field . Moderator: Now in the Internet industry, the top two companies in the world market are Apple and Microsoft, with market capitalization exceeding $1 trillion. Interestingly, they represent a software company and one represents a hardware company. In the blockchain industry, will software and hardware companies with a market capitalization of more than $1 trillion be born in the future?
Big fish : This is certain . Blockchain technology is the foundation of a new type of trust mechanism and a new way of value transfer, with a huge imagination. In the sci-fi world, many future foundations, in the past, are unreliable, but after the arrival of blockchain technology, the discovery is achievable. Human beings are always advancing in the process of constantly achieving one dream after another. Blockchain is one of the core areas of the next era.
Regardless of whether the Internet giant has transformed into a blockchain company, or has emerged from many existing blockchain companies, it has become a giant in the industry. The future of the blockchain field will definitely give a softer market value of more than one trillion dollars. Hardware company.
Cheng Xiaoming : Since the blockchain is a new generation of the Internet, the market value of blockchain companies can certainly exceed the traditional generation of Internet companies. Moderator: Big Fish is the only pure blockchain entrepreneur in the guest. As far as I know, pure blockchain entrepreneurs tend to have a "rebellious" tendency. They are guilty of the rules of the existing world, eager for freedom, decentralization, and must be called "subversion." Therefore, I don't understand very well. It seems that Jianan is listed on the road of the real world (financial rounds, only equity investment, and finally listed). Does this violate the initial intention of blockchain entrepreneurs?
Big Fish : The birth of any new technology needs to evolve and evolve with reality. The problem will eventually be solved, but it takes a long process. There is always a conflict between ideals and reality. In the future, the real world and the blockchain need to be transformed together. What will ultimately be like it is worthy of our common expectation.
Moderator: The latest data shows that in the pool share, CR3>40%, CR5>60%, and the concentration is higher. Fish ponds accounted for 14.22%, ranking third in the industry. So I would like to ask, is there a plan for the mining industry to be listed/possible?
Big Fish : Any company that meets the listing rules is likely to be listed.
Moderator: In the past month, the domestic blockchain policy has been in full swing. From October 24th, “Taking the blockchain as an important breakthrough in core technology”, on November 6th, the National Development and Reform Commission will remove bitcoin mining and “eliminate the industry”, and on November 15th, Shanghai will issue “About virtual currency trading”. The notice of rectification and rectification, and then to the recent focus interviews exposed the blockchain scam, reminding people not to make the blockchain into a "money withdrawal chain." In view of the policy, what positive impact will Jianan's listing on the industry bring?
Big Fish : Through the listing of Jianan Zhizhi, it is of great significance for everyone to focus on the blockchain sector, update the understanding of the blockchain industry, pay attention to it, and promote the industry.
Cheng Xiaoming : What positive impacts can be brought about depends on the future direction of the company. The central government supports the breakthrough of the core technology in the blockchain. If the company positions itself as a chip company and increases investment in this aspect, it will have an important breakthrough in technology, which will definitely bring a huge boost to the development of the industry. Moderator: Can Jianan's listing of the company be able to set off a demonstration effect in the industry and drive the blockchain industry to enter the market? Which kind of company will follow the listing?
Big Fish : Mining is the industry with the most traditional gene and high-tech technology support in blockchain enterprises. It is the most listed type of enterprise and one of the best-profit enterprises. The mining machine manufacturers in the industry are also active. Prepare for war.
Cheng Xiaoming : There will definitely be a group of companies going public, but the problem is that everyone is not concerned about going public in the US, but whether they can go to the mainland to list, at least in Hong Kong. Everyone cares more about the government’s listing of the industry. Attitude. As for which companies I think are still partial to technology. Moderator: The blockchain is put on the national strategic level, but the companies that master the blockchain technology are listed in the US, such as the alliance chain enterprise financial account. Contradictions? Does China's Science and Technology Board have plans to let blockchain companies go public?
Cheng Xiaoming : As mentioned earlier, the state is very supportive of the blockchain technology research and development companies. I think there should be no problem in the domestic market. The problem is that such companies do not seem to be many in China. You said the alliance class. Corporate finance accounts are not a blockchain technology R&D company, but more a blockchain technology application company.
Speaking of whether the science and technology board is likely to let the blockchain company go public, it is still a problem, depending on where the company is in the entire industrial chain of the blockchain. If you are doing the underlying technology, whether it is doing software algorithm cryptography or doing chips, I think there should be no problem, if it is just an application, it is hard to say.