Abstract: Today, the broader market continues to shrink and the funds in the market are fighting each other. In the short-term, the decline in the altcoin currency is expanding, and the daily line is still shrinking. Bitcoin has many similarities with gold. Gold is relatively mature, but Bitcoin has more possibilities.
According to QKL123 statistics, at 13:00 on November 21, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 1,567.862 billion yuan, the total market value of 24 hours increased or decreased by -1.76%, the total turnover was 459.775 billion yuan, and the total turnover changed -8.75%. Market activity has declined. The Babbitt Composite Index reported 11396.07 points, up 24 hours to -0.32%, reflecting a slight decline in the broader market; the Bitcoin strength index was 93.87 points, 24 hours up +1.08%, and the relative performance of Bitcoin in the entire market became stronger. The Alternative sentiment index was 30, a slight decrease from yesterday (32), and the market sentiment was still fearful.
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Among the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), XLM had the largest decline in 24 hours (-3.44%), and BCH had the largest increase in 24 hours (+1.64%). USDT's 24-hour ups and downs were +0.18%. Today's net outflow of funds was 10.1668 million yuan, which was reversed yesterday. USDC's 24-hour ups and downs were +0.02%. Today's net outflow of funds is 9,067,300 yuan, which is reversed from yesterday; ChaiNext USDT The OTC Index was reported at 99.59, with a 24-hour rise and fall of -0.04%.
In the past day, Bitcoin's Google search relative value (peak 88) has fallen back from the previous value (peak 94), approaching a one-month low. The top seven countries in the heat are Nigeria (100), Ghana (47), South Africa (45), Austria (45), Germany (42), Switzerland (40) and the Netherlands (35). In the past day, the global Ethereum's Google search relative value (peak 69) rebounded slightly from the previous value (peak 68), below the one-month average.
Analyst's point of view:
Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer payment system, and its BTC (bitcoin) is hailed as digital gold by industry insiders. Bitcoin has many similarities compared to gold:
(1) Consensus mechanism. Gold is a naturally occurring precious metal. Although it has been a general equivalent for nearly a thousand years in history, it is currently mainly used as a currency reserve of various countries. It has a consensus of "national will" and is strongly influenced by the will of the state. Bitcoin is a decentralized ledger that is realized by code. Although its development history is relatively short (more than ten years), it has been accepted by some countries and regions, and it has a “global community” consensus, and it is weakened by the will of the state.
(2) Supply method. The total amount of gold has the property of “natural scarcity”, and its production mainly comes from natural movement (currently artificial manufacturing cost is extremely high). The total amount of gold that has been proven globally is about 1.7 million tons, but its historical supply increase is The increasing trend, the increase in supply requires the use of mechanical equipment and the like for mining and processing. The total amount of Bitcoin has “artificial scarcity” and was originally designed with a supply cap of 21 million. The supply increment is halved every four years. The increase in supply requires calculation and maintenance using mining equipment.
(3) Main uses. The main uses of gold include international reserves, international payments, jewelry decoration, industrial raw materials, etc., which have been banned as ordinary payment instruments by most countries in the past 100 years, but have been relatively mature as financial products. Compared with gold, Bitcoin has been used by some countries or regions for international payment or general payment, and is also used as a commodity for trading. Its financial products are in a rapid development stage and can also be used as a development and application on blockchain infrastructure. fuel".
In addition, compared to gold, Internet-based bitcoin has advantages in portability, severability, durability and verifiability, and with the emergence of emerging technology applications, there are more possibilities. First, the spot BTC market
Yesterday, the BTC dropped back to $8,200 and the rebound was weak. At 16 o'clock today, a small amount of heavy volume began to fall. The daily RSI indicator showed oversold, but the daily line still showed a downward trend. The short-term waiting period will rebound after being released. Another news, you need to pay attention to the "blockchain first share" tonight, the performance of Jianan Technology listed Nasdaq, the market may have a linkage reaction.
As of 15:00, BTC's net capital inflow today was 375,996,300 yuan. Among them, the net inflow of super large single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 12,331,700 yuan, the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 1,19,304,200 yuan, and the net is in the middle (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan). The inflow of 69.325 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 175.075 million yuan. The market continues to see more and more, with a small net inflow of funds.
Yesterday, the average calculation power of BTC network was 95.16EH/s, which was higher than the previous day. It was close to the one-month average. The 30-day moving average and the 60-day moving average were highly overlapped. The mining was close to the break-even point; the active address on the chain was 67.78. 10,000, down from the previous day, close to the one-month average; the trading volume on the chain was 798,800, which was lower than the previous day and lower than the one-month average; the number of coins destroyed was 4.392 million (historical value), compared with the previous day. The decline is below the one-month average.
Second, the spot ETH market
Following the broader market, ETH has slightly increased its volume to the support level of 170 US dollars. The daily line is still showing a downward trend, waiting for the broader market to stabilize.
As of 15:00, ETH's net outflow of funds today was 271,857,200 yuan. Among them, the over-sale single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 31,774,800 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 20,257,400 yuan, the middle single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow was 203.32 million yuan, and the net inflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 32.205 million yuan. The market was unanimously turned into a net outflow of small orders.
Observing the DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp has rebounded. The game application My Crypto Heroes has 24 hours of active users 3k, 24 hours change -4.48%; financial application MakerDAO's 24-hour active users 2.9k, 24 hours change +35.34%.
Third, the spot LTC market
Just now, LTC's small volume has fallen below $54, and the lowest has reached $52. It may be stronger in a short period of time.
As of 15:00, the net outflow of LTC funds today was 170,240,800 yuan. Among them, the overflow of large single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net inflow of 39.077 million yuan, the large outflow (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 1695.42 yuan, the net outflow of medium (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) 11004.19 million yuan, a small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 82.325 million yuan. There are big differences in the market, mainly based on the net outflow of small orders.
Yesterday, the average net computing power of LTC was 175.57TH/s, which was slightly lower than the previous day, lower than the one-month average and close to the low of the year. After the halving of the block reward on August 05, the computing power has declined. There is no sign of recovery. Although it has not fallen below the low of the beginning of the year, the risk of stamping is greater. The number of active addresses on the LTC chain (54,400) decreased from the previous day, approaching a one-month low; the number of currency days destroyed was 10.923 million (lower historical value), lower than the one-month average.
Fourth, the spot EOS market
Similar to the performance of LTC, EOS has a small volume down to $3.00, and short-term heavy volume oversold may stabilize.
As of 15:00, EOS's net capital inflow today was 5,594,300 yuan. Among them, the over-single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 6,876,100 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 2,748,900 yuan, the middle single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow of 93.137 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 133.9951 million yuan. There are major differences in the market, with a large net inflow of small orders.
According to DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp has recovered. The number of 24-hour users of the game EOS Dynasty was 1.2, which was +31.60% compared with yesterday. The number of active users of Newdex's 24-hour account was 879, which was +6.29% change from yesterday.
V. Analyst strategy
1. Long line (1-3 years)
The long-term trend of BTC is improving. At present, the high probability is in the stage of partial adjustment. The mad cow market is likely to arrive in the next one to two years. The relative price of the BTC of the smart contract platform leader ETH, the cottage coin LTC, and the DPoS leader EOS is close to the low of the year and can be properly configured.
2. Midline (1-3 months)
Bitcoin comes below the 200-day moving average. If the position is not heavy, it can be bargain-hunting.
3. Short-term (1-3 days)
Continue to wait and see, wait for stability, and pay attention to the news.
VI. Appendix – Index Interpretation
1. Babbitt Composite Index
The Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) consists of the largest and most representative Tokens in the global market for existing blockchains to reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain Token market.
2. Bitcoin strength index
The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the conversion of Bitcoin in the entire Token market, which in turn reflects the competitive strength of Bitcoin in the market and is used to measure the extent to which Bitcoin changes the relative price of a basket of Tokens. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger the bitcoin in the Token market.
3.Alternative sentiment index
The Fear & Greed Index reflects the emotional changes in the market, with 0 meaning “extreme fear” and 100 meaning “extreme greed”. The indicators include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), trend (10%).
4.USDT Off-exchange Discount Index
The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. An index of 100 indicates USDT parity, an index greater than 100 indicates a USDT premium, and a value less than 100 indicates a USDT discount.
5. Google search trend
This refers to Google web search data results, the relative value of the search in the specified time and region: the hottest record of 100, the heat accounted for the highest half of 50, there is not enough data of 0. Note: The higher the score in a country, the higher the percentage of search terms in all local search terms, and does not mean the absolute number of searches.
6. Net inflow of funds (out)
This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds from the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow of funds and the outflow of funds on the global exchange (not including false transactions), positive values indicate net inflows of funds, while negative values indicate net outflows of funds. Among them, the turnover is calculated as the inflow of funds when the rise, and the turnover is calculated as the outflow when the decline occurs.
7. Currency Day Destruction
Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days of Bitcoin holdings. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. BTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 100 million is the maximum value; 50 to 100 million is the larger value; 10 to 50 million is the median; less than or equal to 10 million is the smaller value. LTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 500 million is the maximum value; 100 million to 500 million is the larger value; 50 to 100 million is the median; less than or equal to 50 million is the smaller value.
8. Number of active addresses on the chain
The number of active addresses on the chain refers to the number of addresses in the chain address of the block chain. Usually, this indicator can reflect the activity level of a chain of a public chain, and the demand activities under the chain such as secondary market transactions and wallet use will have a greater impact on it.
Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.