The disaster behind the coin market "Xiaoyangchun" and the living water

The coin market "Xiaoyangchun" came fast, and it was crazy to play. Zhang Xiaojian, the "old leeks" who had cut off the meat, "dismissed" in the circle of friends: He was killed again.

"IEO activates the market stock funds, and the new gameplay such as Fire Money Prime will continue to set off layers." Although the big cow is far away, Xiaolang can still be expected, he wonders how to start.

However, from 100,000 to 10,000, Gao Yue, who claimed to have created a wealth of jokes, did not buy it. She tried to figure out a question: Is it artificial speculation or the market is picking up?

"The rise and fall of the currency price is only the appearance." Yuen, the co-founder of the Lions Community, told the Financial and Economics App that the smell of money has always been the most sensitive, and they will quickly flow to the direction and space of profit, and maximize the benefits.

“The currency market of the previous period is the result of the industry sentiment and the expectation of practitioners to superimpose, and the hot money speculation boosts together.” She explained that this phenomenon firstly, the funds began to break through the IEO, in the platform coins and the altcoin There was a wave of God's operation; then, when the platform currency and the altcoin currency rose, the mainstream currency became value, and the market trend was transmitted to the mainstream currency. After all, this is a financial game in the secondary market, and IEO is just a beautiful wedding dress.

At the moment, this wave of rising market conditions is weakening, and whether it can continue to rise depends largely on the admission of incremental funds. If not, the money-making effect at this stage will eventually evolve into a war of attrition for players in a blood-sucking field.

How do you exist if you are in it?

The potential of IEO is getting weaker, and the battle for heads tends to become hot.

In the 2019, Q1, the rise of the IEO project, the first project of the fire currency Prime, TOP Network, was officially opened for purchase on March 26, and its profit-making effect made the mainstream currency unmatched.

After entering April, the abnormal growth of the currency circle not only made the IEO darker and more chaotic, but also made the competition of the preferred platforms of the three major exchanges become hot.

On April 1st, the company announced that it will launch the fourth Launchpad project of the Matic Network this year. On April 10th, according to the official data of OKEx, the first phase of OK Jumpstart, the building block, was completed in 1 second and completed 1 billion BLOC. Overbooking, the number of visitors is over one million; on April 16, according to the official news of the fire currency, the second round of the Newton Project, the second project of the fire coin Prime, took only 3 seconds to buy 400 million NEW.

It can be seen that “high-yield” has made the currency circle red, but hidden worries are emerging. Recently, the research chain Insight Chain (INB) released a hot spot survey of investors about the "Matic Network is coming online." The results show that 167 valid questionnaires were collected in Insight DApp, of which 50.9% of investors believe that MATIC can continue to provide strong momentum for BNB's rise, and 44.3% said it has difficulties. At the same time, MATIC as the fourth Launchpad project of the currency security, 55.1% of investors believe that it can still go up and up, 41.9% of investors think that the increase will be much smaller. From the survey data, nearly half are pessimistic.

The Nuclear Finance APP also found in the interview with senior investors in the currency circle that in this drumming game, IEO has become a game of “Who is faster than anyone”. According to Yu Mang, from the perspective of cycle and potential energy, IEO is not enough to support the uptrend, and its boom will soon retreat.

A few days ago, many currency circles shouted "IEO to collapse", and it seems that the decline has become an industry consensus. At the end of last month, the founder of the Ethereum “V God” also blamed the IEO, thinking that it is the ICO of the exchange, which is a retrogression in the development of the industry.

In fact, in the face of sensational changes, the three exchanges also quickly made adjustments. According to the currency security, the new lottery draw mode will be adopted on the fourth Launchpad project. On April 18th, OKEx announced that the OK Jumpstart Phase II rule will be upgraded in three aspects: First, the OKB snapshot will be changed to a random snapshot; second, the OKB position will be changed to 15 days; the third is the original round of sales to two. Wheel sales. The Fire Coin Prime has been upgraded to the “Ladder Buy + Red Pack” mode in the second phase.

In the interview with the Nuclear Finance APP, CEO of the Global Co., Ltd., said that the fire coin will launch "Prime Lite" in the near future. According to him, Prime Lite aims to solve the problem between the traditional exchange currency of the exchange and the Prime currency of the fire currency. The advantage lies in the fact that the project that does not meet the requirements of the Prime Prime is a chance to go online.

In addition, the comparison between "IEO and Prime" has never stopped, and the official said that the two are not the same. Qiye pointed out that Prime positioning is a marketing platform, and the essence of IEO is still financing.

“Through the Fire Prime, the project sells a portion of the shares to the HT holders at a low price. The key is that the users have benefited in a down-to-earth manner, and the project has gained exposure effects. The IEO is a bit like a deal-based underwriter. It is a clear Violations, the project tends to plummet after the project goes online. However, BitTorrent (BTT) is an exception, but the credit should be Sun Yuchen, not IEO," he said.

Not only that, Zhang Xiaojian, who was fascinated by the IEO project, was a little scared in recent days. "The recent market wait-and-see mood is getting stronger. I want to buy a wave of money and I am afraid I can't escape it." He didn't have an idea between grabbing and not grabbing.

Qi Ye also admitted that IEO is bound to become a speculative game. "Because, first, after a round of search, there are not many good projects. Second, the current lack of screening ability and brand appeal of small and medium-sized exchanges is not enough to empower the project," he said.

The implication is that IEO has been difficult to maintain.

USDT premium, BTC continuous net inflow

As the rumors say, after the IEO potential weakens, the flow of funds to the mainstream currency reflects the market's main intentions and the banker's intentions.

Singaporean analyst Linder Wu likens this phenomenon to the “seesaw effect”, that is, the current digital money market is a stock game, IEO makes the platform currency rise, and the platform price rise does not appear out of thin air. result.

"Ico's mysterious veil was exposed, the main funds will be introduced into the mainstream currency, and then retail investors began to follow up, the mainstream currency market is popular," Linder Wu said.

At 12:30 on April 2, the BTC price soared from $4,200 to $5,000 in a few minutes, and has been in a narrow range for most of the month. "From the recent volatility, the BTC price fluctuations are not very large. After repeatedly stepping on the lower support level, the low point continues to rise, the high point is at a new high, and the upward trend is obvious." Linder Wu analyzed.

In addition, PeckShield Situational Awareness Platform data monitoring shows that the USDT market circulation has surged 314 million since April.

On April 16, PeckShield reported that the USDT market has surged since April. First, Tether Treasury officially issued 314 million USDT (the difference between the outflow and the inflow of the Treasury address) and added to the Ethereum network. The ERC20 USDT was 170 million pieces; the second was Tether Treasury's official capital outflow totaling 131 times, a 15 times increase from the previous month's activity, and a total outflow of 346 million USDT. On April 19th, the Tether Treasury official account balance was about 151 million USDT, with a total market circulation of 2.369 billion. In addition to TUSD, other stable currencies have changed significantly after 2019.

A comparison of the total circulation of stable currencies. Source: PeckShield

According to PeckShield researchers, the data indicates that USDT's market liquidity is increasing, which is caused by the market's increased demand for USDT.

As the saying goes, "The Spring River Plumbing Duck Prophet", the exchange must be the first to perceive. On April 18th, Qiye told the Nuclear Finance APP that the current trading volume has increased significantly compared with the end of last year. “In recent weeks, I have noticed that off-exchange funds have begun to enter the market, and the high premium of USDT is one of the signs of OTC funds,” he said.

On the same day, the USDT purchase price on the coin was 6.81 yuan, and the over-the-counter premium rate was 1.79%. The highest off-market price of USDT this month was 7 yuan set on April 8, and the premium rate was 4.35%.

Qiye also revealed that the large net inflow of the fire currency platform has lasted for a month, and the net inflow of funds from April 1-18 has exceeded 10 times that of Q1 in 2019. This can be seen.

The Nuclear Finance APP noted that in terms of the volume of digital currency transactions, the volume of sales rebounded after entering April, which pushed a large number of chips to complete the conversion. BTC has been in a state of continuous heavy volume in the near term, which can be regarded as a signal to open a position with funds. The blockchain market data analysis and service platform BitEasy monitoring shows that in the past 30 days, the net inflow of BTC funds of Huobi, Binance, OKEx and Bitfinex has exceeded 7.5 billion yuan.

Bitco data analyst Shaoxiong said that net capital inflows are very critical data, and there are a lot of funds that have already reached BTC.

The user decides the value, and freedom is the "source of living water"?

The currency circle is a naked market.

“Everyone wants to take a share of it, and there is no place for value investment.” Linder Wu believes that the leeks are all taking advantage of the speculative psychology of a rich night, deviating from the basic investment philosophy.

While the IEO potential is declining, investors who are eager to try are caught in collective anxiety. The Nuclear Finance APP has consulted a number of industry experts on value investing. The theoretical and venture capital circles have different opinions. However, they agreed that the general price increase as in April 2 is difficult to reproduce in the short term. Next, not only will the money-making effect continue to fade, but the operational difficulty will continue to rise.

"The price of the currency is long-term to see the number of users, and ask God for a short time." The words of the founder of Lebit's mining pool, Jiang Zhuoer, are widely circulated in the industry.

For the moment, Zhao Dong, founder of DGroup, believes that mining and trading are the two core points of the digital currency world. This explains the problem from the perspective of investment, which is to find the attribution of the mining PoW currency and the platform currency of the head exchange.

In the long run, the representative of the mining currency is not the same as the final price of the platform currency. Zhao Dong told the Nuclear Finance APP that BTC is known as “digital gold” and has the “value storage” attribute. It has reached a broad consensus in the blockchain world. The platform currency is a product of centralization and is susceptible to platform constraints and policies.

From the perspective of value economics, the origin of value is human needs. Zhao Dong believes that the value of a chain in the future is determined by the number of its users. "In the future, if there are 100 million people on the market and the user is concentrated on which chain, the chain will be dimmed," he said.

On the other hand, which chain can support the use and demand of more people, its future market value may be greater. "Now, BTC has a huge first-mover advantage. People outside the blockchain basically only know bitcoin, which will be calculated into the BTC brand value." Jiang Zhuoer said, "BTC will block more people. It’s right to think about what kind of route. From the fragmentation technology of Ethereum to the big block of BCH, we are trying different solutions.”

As a fan of Austrian economics, Jiang Zall believes that "the value of blockchain is economic freedom."

"In the past, the government was in control of everything. The so-called 'under the ordinary world, it is not the kingdom of the earth; the shore of the soil is not the king of the king', and the more human civilization develops, the public power is constantly retreating. In the United States, for example, the United States uses three Separation of power controls the proliferation of public power. From the US monetary level, the US government does not have the right to issue money, and the independent Fed issues the currency. Now, using the blockchain technology will be able to achieve the core of Austrian economics – Market freedom and small governmentism," Jiang Zhuoer explained.

The key to who can win in the future is whether it can bring new economic freedom. He explained, "From the past development history, BTC brought currency freedom, ETH brought freedom of ownership, and stable currency brought freedom of legal currency circulation. In addition, I am also optimistic about decentralized storage, which can bring documents. / Freedom of information." Jiang Zhuoer believes that at the current stage, the exchange is a share of economic freedom, not a source of profit.

Similarly, survival and freedom are the source of human power and do not require any reason. He said, "Tao is survival. Daosheng is efficiency. If you want to survive, you must improve efficiency. In life, you must compete. If you want to improve efficiency, you must compete. The second is freedom. To compete, you need freedom."

In Jiang Zor's business logic, where is the economic freedom, and where is the "source of living water" of wealth, to ensure that the investment surface covers the source of profit, that is, his "cover source" theory.

(Source: Nuclear Finance; Text: Master Vincent)