Author: Shen thirty thousand gears up
Source: Public Account Financial Breakfast
"If you are afraid of going to hell, please stay away from the financial world; if you want to go to heaven, you must not miss the financial world."
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Looking at modern civilization, there is no more contradictory and hateful contradiction than "finance".
After the 2008 financial crisis, people attributed their faults to finance. It destroyed wealth, destroyed jobs, eroded banks, disintegrated prosperity, and left countless people in desperation, poverty, and suicide.
On the other hand, financial history researchers have been busy to help finance “rectify the name”. Financial historian William Gozman appealed to the world: mankind cannot abandon finance, and it is finance that makes the progress of civilization possible .
Yes, human civilization has played an important role in 5,000 years of civilization.
- It promoted the emergence of ancient Mesopotamian writing;
- It promoted the transformation of the classical culture of Greece and Rome to the Empire;
- It determines the rise and fall of the ancient Chinese dynasty;
- It has provided a guarantee for the expansion of trade leading Europe to the world.
Five thousand years later, where will the financial machine of time take humanity?
A financier puts it all the way: credit + leverage + risk is finance; the future of finance depends on these three.
In 2019, under the blessing of science and technology, the field of credit, the first element of finance, is experiencing great changes in the sky. The pioneer of financial technology, blockchain, has arrogantly stepped onto the stage of history.
It is no longer overnight to become rich and abjectly poor, but only in one thought.
Blockchain: Tigers come out
Blockchain, for a long time, seems like a "sky book."
Analysts have used the "complicated things" capability to the extreme in this field-
"Increase the number of single blocks, that is, continuously generate blocks. Genaro's SPOR + PoS hybrid consensus mechanism uses SPOR to screen trusted nodes. These trusted nodes can process more transactions at the same time, allowing elected consensus nodes to be continuous Create blocks to improve the performance of the Genaro public chain. "
If you can understand, you have beaten 99% of the industry.
- Wu Xiaoqiu, vice president of Renmin University of China, said that I haven't really figured out what a blockchain is .
- The former president of ICBC, Yang Kaisheng, said that there seems to be a tendency to say more and more mysteriously about the blockchain. Performance .
In this area, Yao Qian, the former director of the Central Bank's Digital Currency Research Institute, is a clear stream, saying:
"What a blockchain is, it depends on its origin."
Blockchain originated in cryptography. In 1976, cryptographers Diffie and Herman proposed that the original key should be divided into two pairs, one key for encryption and one key for decryption. . The encryption key is public and is called the public key. The decryption key cannot be made public, it is held in secret and cannot be known to others. It is called a private key.
For example, Zhang San wants to send a message to Li Si, and Zhang San uses Li Si's public key to encrypt the information. Only Li Si's private key can be unlocked, and no one else can.
In 1978, this key idea was improved again. In addition to solving the problem of large-scale key distribution in open systems, it also brings a function that the original symmetric cryptosystem does not have, which is a very unique authentication function.
For example, Zhang San wants to send information to others. Zhang San not only encrypts the message with the public key of others, but also signs it with Zhang San's private key, so that others can use Zhang San's public key for signature verification and judgment. Is the message sent by Zhang San?
In 1993, this theory was upgraded again, called the hash algorithm. The calculation of the hash function from input to output is very fast, and it quickly converges the value without consuming huge computing resources, and it is almost impossible to push back the input from the output.
For example, the habitual RMB prefix number can be understood as being generated by a hash algorithm.
In the future, the theoretical basis of blockchain will come from this.
Once it is formed and applied on the ground, the amazing power will subvert the current world.
- From an accounting perspective , the blockchain allows distributed ledger technology to land. Not easy to forge, difficult to tamper with, open and transparent, and traceable, easy to audit, and can automatically complete real-time account matching, account matching, and account matching. Instantaneous balance sheet preparation is possible. In other words, the accounting and auditing industry may disappear.
- From an account perspective , the blockchain allows the private key to be generated locally, derives the public key from it, and then converts the wallet address to open an account for itself without the need for an intermediary. The account system has changed, which is a very significant financial history Variety. In other words, the banking system acting as an intermediary may disappear.
- From the perspective of asset trading , blockchain can create a new financial market model. As a trust machine, asset transactions can be de-intermediate. In other words, the brokers who act as intermediaries and platforms for asset trading may disappear.
- From the perspective of organizational behavior , blockchain makes effective distributed collaborative work truly possible. There is no board of directors, no company charter, no rigorous subordinate system, no centralized managers, and everyone builds and shares together. This is a great revolution in the form of the organization of economic activities. In other words, modern enterprise systems and organizations may disappear.
It is not unreasonable for the world to respect and fear blockchain.
"The tiger is about to come out of the cage, or kill the enemy, or turn around to bite."
Blockchain, this tiger, let it go or not?
More and more countries, markets, and enterprises choose to "release". Moving forward in the crisis, creating in the sacrifice, isn't that how humans broke out in the 5,000-year history of civilization?
Digital currencies: angels and demons
However, blockchains with a "professional background" have suffered from stigma for a long time.
"Scams" and "circle money", many infamous, endlessly.
The largest application of blockchain, digital currency, should bear great responsibility for this.
This is also the biggest reason why people "don't understand" the blockchain: there is no large-scale landing application, and it is too far away from people's lives.
Digital currency, which stands out from the crowd, has become the "pioneer" of the blockchain. Bitcoin is the vanguard of the vanguard.
In 2008, Satoshi Nakamoto published the classic paper "Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System" and proposed a brand-new decentralized electronic cash system. Bitcoin was born, and since then it has entered the global financial arena to show its strength.
Satoshi Nakamoto broke the word of Bitcoin's disruptive innovation: if an attacker does not have more than 50% of the entire network's computing resources, he cannot attack this bookkeeping (link) system!
In other words, with bitcoin, peer-to-peer transactions that people could not do through thousands of mountains and rivers can now be achieved without relying on intermediaries such as banks and only by distributed ledger. Moreover, security is much higher than intermediaries such as traditional banks.
This extremely advanced system has caught global financial experts off guard–
- "The tide of bank runs that have scared the public for the last few thousand years is gone?"
- "You don't even need a bank anymore?"
- "People no longer need to be afraid of money being stolen? No more saving?"
Many banks hate it and can't stop it: on the one hand, banks are afraid of being subverted by it; on the other hand, banks urgently need the attributes and tools provided by cryptocurrencies, especially their underlying technology, blockchain. Fear means nothing. From the day Bitcoin rushed, the only factor limiting its development was: imagination.
Some visionary and spirited people began to embrace this crazy thing.
- In October 2012, the Bitcoin Foundation was established;
- In October 2013, Vancouver deployed the world's first Bitcoin ATM machine;
- In 2016, the Japanese parliament approved a new bill for bitcoin regulation, which identified bitcoin as property, and then quickly officially legalized it;
- In 2017, there were 8,207 physical enterprises that accepted Bitcoin as a uniform, and the average quarterly increase since then was more than 5%;
- In 2017, Bitcoin entered the world's largest futures exchange, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Since then, it has competed with the stars, such as soybeans, gold, and oil.
Bitcoin, which has innate excellent conditions, has lived up to expectations and stood on the stand of ordinary people, trying to turn the tide again and again. In 2013, the Cyprus banking crisis highlighted the inability of the country's credit, bitcoin, which is deeply hedged, and helped the Cypriot people in crisis, saving countless families. In the Cyprus banking crisis, the government was unable to help, and Cypriot depositors were in danger of themselves, rushing to exchange their national currency for bitcoin, and then the price of bitcoin soared from $ 30 to $ 265. People escaped, and even got a lot! Can't help but stun the outside world.
However, from 2016, after Bitcoin entered the mainstream vision, things started to become unusual.
- "2018 China Economic Net News: The chairman lost a lot of money in speculation, the income in the first half of the year was 0, and the company's main business stopped."
- "In 2018, Sina Technology News: 90% of 247 new currencies were broken, and the bottom investors lost their blood."
- "In 2019, the WeChat official website news: Pioneer founder Zhang Zhenxin died, investing bitcoin a huge loss of tens of billions."
A speculator once said frankly: Bitcoin is either astronomical or worthless, but as long as it can make money, it doesn't break the law, no matter what it is. After all, there are too few things that can make money quickly .
More dark sides surfaced . Because the bitcoin system is anonymous and can be distributed across the entire network without restrictions on national borders, some criminals use bitcoin to launder money or conduct illegal transactions.
"Any good thing that comes with an ideal and meets human desire has the potential to worsen."
Among the factors that "deteriorate" bitcoin, human speculative desire and rich desire are the first. This desire and speculation has transformed Bitcoin into an investment product. Human beings have never been resistant to the huge monetary returns brought by investment.
The alternation of speculators, exchanges, supervision and public opinion in various countries has made the future of Bitcoin ambiguous. However, the market did not expect that a silent giant that had never participated in a war of words has long been ambush in this global financial turmoil.
It is: China's central bank.
Central Bank: Responsible for keeping the soil
For a long time, the Chinese central bank's attitude towards Bitcoin was misunderstood as "suppressed."
On December 5, 2013, five ministries and commissions, including the central bank, issued the “Notice on Preventing Bitcoin Risks”, which stipulated that financial and payment institutions, including banks, should not engage in Bitcoin transactions. On the same day, the price of Bitcoin fell, from 7004 yuan to 4521 yuan.
"China says no, Bitcoin has a cold."
This also constitutes an important reason for the decline in Bitcoin prices from the end of 2013 to the end of 2015.
A long time later, it was discovered that the purpose of the central bank was not to "suppress" but to ensure the stable and healthy development of the digital currency market, including bitcoin. In the early stages of the development of each industry, there was a "herd battle", which is most likely to breed criminal incidents. Supervisors not only have to find a way to "open the country", but also need to "hold the responsibility of keeping the soil" and stay firmly in the "financial" field. The "China Development" is a huge ship in the storm.
In fact, the central bank already has a layout for digital currencies.
- As early as 2014, under the leadership of Zhou Xiaochuan, the central bank set up a special cryptocurrency research group to be responsible for formulating a digital currency DC / EP issuance and operation framework .
- In January 2016, the central bank held a digital currency seminar, affirming the importance of officially certified digital currencies .
- In 2017, the Central Bank established the Digital Currency Research Institute.
- On the afternoon of November 6, 2018, the central bank released a long-word, "What can and cannot do with blockchain", one of the authors was Xu Zhong, then the director of the Central Bank Research Bureau.
- In July 2019, Wang Xin, the director of the Central Bank Research Bureau, revealed that the State Council has officially approved the development of digital currency of the central bank, and the central bank is engaged in corresponding work in organizing market institutions; in August, the central bank announced the development of digital currency intensively; recently, China ’s international economic exchanges Huang Qifan, the deputy director of the Center, bluntly stated that the Chinese central bank may be the first to launch digital currency globally .
Once the national credit endorsed digital currency, once it is landing, it can be regarded as a subversive change.
The central bank's digital currency is expected to become the largest application scenario of the blockchain. Digital currencies endorsed with national credit will greatly reduce the issuance cost of fiat currencies. Compared with Alipay, WeChat and other payment methods, the central bank's digital currency payment will also be simpler and more convenient, even in the absence of the Internet, you can easily pay with your mobile phone!
Global Entry: Wealth Rush
At the same time as the People's Bank of China fired, more forces saw the market, and the situation became more confusing.
Facebook's Libra stablecoin has aggressively entered the cryptocurrency industry ten years after the birth of Bitcoin. The purpose is very scary: to subvert the existing financial system and at least create an internal cashless economy. In essence, this social media giant is seeking to become an alternative world central bank!
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said that digital currencies similar to Libra could replace the US dollar as the world's reserve currency, although this is not easy. The giants who have been touched by the "benefit cake" scramble to attack and obstruct. U.S. President Trump, the EU's antitrust regulators and other forces swarmed up, trying to put out the horrific fire of stars. However, the fire of the stars can be ignited.
Facebook's Libra is more like a catalyst to ignite the long-standing fear of giants in control of wealth and power-
- "If a new 'general equivalent' appears in addition to the current currency, what will happen to the current currency and foreign exchange? "
- "If the original Bitcoin is traced back to its original value and there is potential space for transaction attributes and value-added , what should we do?"
- " Will global trade and wealth flow be redistributed ?"
- "Is a new industry on the rise? Will the people who first master the new technology take the lead ?"
When implemented to individuals, the consequences are even more turbulent.
History has witnessed a similar cycle time and time again–
- In 1978, the commercialization of housing and land property rights began to be theoreticalized. In 1998, the stage of real estate financialization development opened. In the following three decades, real estate has played a pivotal role in China's "urbanization", "internationalization", "intelligence", "industrialization", and "financialization". In the first batch of people who went into the real estate market, many people swept the list of China's richest people in the future.
- In 1984, the Central Government Document No. 4 formally proposed the concept of developing township and village enterprises; in the early 1990s, in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta regions, township and township enterprises suddenly emerged, and there was "one third of the world" in local GDP. The peasants who "crossed the river by feeling the stones" took the risk of "state assets loss", mortgaged the real estate, bet on all their net worth, and worked hard. Since then, they have another identity, "township entrepreneurs." Many years later, a large number of these companies went public, and a large number of township and village entrepreneurs became responsible for China's private economy.
- From 1990 to 1992, the Chinese stock market, as a "newborn" of the capital market, continued to rise for two and a half years, starting at 96.05 and reaching a high of 1429 in one fell swoop! When most people resisted the "stock speculation" incident, the investors who first entered the stock market turned into millionaires overnight .
In the forty years of the Chinese economy, there have been only three opportunities for the emergence of "historical development inevitable dividends" and opportunities for ordinary people to realize their leap in wealth.
Some people may say that there is no right, and there are dividends from the Internet.
So, let's look at a set of data :
- Ma Huateng will not tell you that his father is a director of a listed company in Yantian Port . Tencent's first investment came from Li Zekai. There is no need to say anything about Li Zekai's relationship with the parent company of Yantian Port;
- Wang Xing said, "Qian Zhuang is inspiring" and has a native family with an annual output of more than 2 million tons of cement plants . In addition to his keen commercial sense of smell, he also has the full confidence to compete with substances;
- As for Ma Yun ’s father, Malay Law, he was a veteran of the Quyi industry and the leader of the Zhejiang Provincial Music Association . It was not a “tricycle” written in chicken soup text;
- Li Yanhong and Zhang Chaoyang, who were active in the Internet world, were still a rare time when they "go to college", and they were all returnees .
In other words, the chance of success that was given to ordinary people later has virtually set an "entry threshold." It is even more difficult for grassroots to seize the opportunity to enter the leap industry.
So far, people have begun to understand the fanatical charm of blockchain!
- Maybe it will subvert the old industry, create new industries, and let the people who have the first grasp of emerging technologies take the lead .
- Maybe it will help the market, regulation, and individual remodeling, which will be fairer and more transparent in the future ;
- Maybe, it will reverse the disadvantages of economic development from "de-reality to reality" and help the real economy to regain its glory ;
- Perhaps it is the fourth chance to make a leap in wealth !
How do ordinary people seize this fourth opportunity?
Understand it, see through it, and prepare for it when it comes!