On November 25th, F2pool Yuchi officially announced Weibo that "based on the current mining difficulty of bitcoin, at a price of 0.38 yuan / degree, 6 bitcoin miners including Ant S9 have reached the shutdown price.
On this day, the Bitcoin price situation is indeed not optimistic. In a short period of time, the price of Bitcoin dropped below the $ 7,000 support level, and the price fell to about $ 6,700 for a period of 24 hours. On this day, there was a liquidation of BTC of 52.05 million US dollars in half an hour.
- David Marcus: Libra's anti-money laundering standard is higher than other payment networks
- Viewpoint | Is Bitcoin a macro hedging tool?
- Internal and external, Libra can seek hope in the crack
- Can Ethereum go to the high-speed development of centralization finance, can it trigger the next round of blockchain bull market?
- Why can Singapore's financial industry break through technology silos?
- ICBC took the lead in testing the digital currency wallet service. When will other banks follow up?
According to the data provided by F2pool, the shutdown price of the Ant S9 miner is 47,774 yuan, or about $ 6,786. If Bitcoin is lower than this price, then the miners' profits from selling coins cannot cover the cost of mining machines, the maintenance costs of mining machines, and electricity costs.
The lower the shutdown price of a mining machine, the stronger the miner's ability to resist the drop of the currency price.
The other five miners listed by F2pool have shutdown prices higher than Ant S9. BBNEWS found through calculations that despite the rebound in bitcoin prices in the past two days, the four miners of Shenma M3, Avalon A741, Wingbit E9 +, and Ant T9 + still reached the shutdown price, while Avalon A821 and Ant S9 Kankan is hovering on the dividing line between loss and profit.
Information source: Weibo
01. Viewing the status of miners from Ant S9
The ant S9 reached the shutdown price, which made many people in the currency circle sigh. It is understood that Ant S9 is recognized by the industry as the most cost-effective mining machine, which provides about 60% of the computing power for the Bitcoin network. F2pool's official website information shows that under the current computing power situation, based on the electricity cost of 0.28 yuan / kWh (in fact, the water season has passed, the current electricity bill is much higher than this), this type of mining machine can only bring miners a day To 0.88 US dollars (more than 6 yuan) .
And just in April this year, an article published by netizen Mr. Modern "How many bitcoins can an Antminer S9 mine in a day?" "How much computing power of the Antminer S9" also mentioned "based on the current currency price, the daily net income of an Ant S9 miner is about 90 yuan ."
Quotes determine the "life and death" of miners.
In April of this year, there was a bull market in the market. Miners use Ant S9 to mine. The daily income of each miner is more than 90 yuan. Now, miners have almost no profit using the same machine. In April, the price of second-hand Ant S9 miners increased with the rise of the currency price, and once reached 3,000 yuan / unit, and now the price has been around 400 yuan / unit.
"Generation King of Machines" Ant S9 is facing the era of era. Old miners are reluctant, and new miners are more unwilling. In April, the high-priced mining machine has not paid back, and seeing that it is going to be in a "loss when starting up" situation.
The near-shutdown price of the Ant S9 has also released an important signal: the mining era is about to usher in a turning point.
Network data shows that the price of bitcoin has fallen by more than 30% in the past three months, and the difficulty of mining on the entire network can be said to be in continuous growth. In the past three months, the average computing power of the entire network has increased by 27.5%. That is to say, without considering other influencing factors, miners' mining bitcoin efficiency has decreased by 27.5% over the past three months, and the rewards obtained from mining have been converted into fiat currencies, and the revenue has also been reduced by 30%. Taken together, miners' profits have shrunk by 49%.
Bitcoin's entire network hashrate curve, information source: BTC.com
02. "Miner surrenders"
The current situation is undoubtedly difficult for miners.
The founder of Hufu Wallet Wang Ruixi stated that "At present, mining competition is very fierce. For miners, the cycle of mining returns is getting longer and longer, from 30 days to 60 days to 90 days at the beginning, and it may now be a year now. Can't return Ben. "
With the rise of computing power, the rising difficulty of Bitcoin mining across the network has a tendency to squeeze retail miners out of the market. Mike Edwards, chief executive of a mining company in the UK, said: "It is extremely difficult for individuals and small mining companies to remain profitable because the current mining system is only good for large-scale mining."
Indeed, the mining equipment used by small miners is often outdated, for example, some miners are still using models like the Ant S9 mentioned earlier. And small miners often don't get cheap electricity, and they don't benefit from economies of scale like large miners do.
As mentioned by many media, in the face of the sharp decline in mining revenue, there has been a trend of "capitulation" for small and medium-sized miners in the market. In the past, a large number of miners gathered to mine, and the computing power of the entire network was pushed to a high point (it is still at the high point of computing power). Now, the possibility that small and medium-sized miners can shut down at any time also means that the computing power of the entire network may decline.
"What is" miner surrender "and what impact does it have on the market? "The article proposed that the growth rate of the entire network's computing power has been running horizontally below 0.5% for more than a week, but has not fallen below the 0 axis. The decision to 'surrender' (downtime and bitcoin selling). "
In fact, the recent waterfall of currency prices has already caused some miners to disarm and surrender. According to BTC.com data, in recent days, the network's computing power has seen a reversal point.
On November 7, the computing power of the entire network dropped by 7.1%. The last time such a significant decline in computing power was in November 2018. Around October 2018, Bitcoin dropped to more than 6,000 U.S. dollars, and then large-scale miners "surrendered", with 600,000-800,000 Bitcoin mining machines reportedly operating. Then came the big bear market that impressed us from the end of 2018 to the beginning of 2019.
On November 7, the computing power of the entire network fell by 7.1%. Source: BTC.com
This time the situation seems similar. The drop in the currency price has deepened the dilemma of small miners, and mining cannot be profitable. Some small miners choose to stop and even sell the mined bitcoins at a low price. The selling pressure of miners may cause the currency price to fall further, thus forming a vicious circle until it reaches the bottom.
From the current point of view, miners, especially small and medium-sized miners, are in the downward phase of this adjustment cycle, and they are undoubtedly suffering. As one practitioner said, "Bitcoin price has been halved before mass production." Small and medium-sized miners are under the pressure of sharply reduced currency prices and fierce competition in computing power.
03. How to "overwinter"
However, even if the current situation is not good, the bitcoin halving that may occur in May next year is still attracting many miners to stick with it. Out of this dark period, they are trying to survive the winter in various ways.
It is understood that some miners have already shut down the Ant S9. "Now they can't afford the electricity bill, they are all down." Other miners are selling S9. They want to stop losses by transferring mobile phones, and repurchase better-performing machines through the funds returned to improve mining efficiency and prepare for halving next year.
Other miners choose to buy coins. For example, a person in charge of a certain miner community said, "If the new machine cannot return to its original value before halving in May next year, simply buy coins." I can make some money again, which is higher than the current mining yield. The machine intends to wait for the price to rise before turning on the machine. "
Of course, there are also miners who have decided to withstand short-term losses and hold their coins for sale. "It's going to be halved next year and I'm reluctant to sell."
Miner Colt has thousands of mining machines, and their performance is not bad, but the currency price has fallen sharply recently, causing the revenue to shrink sharply. In order to bear the high cost of electricity, mining machine maintenance, and labor costs without selling coins, Xiaoma found some Bitcoin loan and storage wealth management platforms. He pledged 100 bitcoins and borrowed more than 200,000 USDT to pay for these fees.
This type of mortgage business is the fastest growing financial business direction in a bear market.It can not only keep bitcoins in the hands of miners, but also bring interest income to the platform.
In addition, as mentioned earlier, the industry environment is severe and small and medium-sized miners are undergoing shuffling and elimination. "Miners are investing in real gold and silver, so they are most concerned about returning to the cycle. Once the shutdown price is reached, many miners will choose to go out of business."
Some miners who are unwilling to go out are going to rescue themselves by going out to sea. Iran is one of the destinations for these miners. It is understood that this country is rich in natural gas resources and the cost of electricity can be as low as 4 cents per kilowatt-hour. Compared with the cheapest domestic price of 1 cent per kilowatt, mining here can Miners save about 73% of their electricity bills.
But this does not mean that miners can go to Iran to mine unscrupulously. According to information in July this year, Iranian officials said that although local laws did not prohibit crypto mining operations, the government and the central bank have ordered customs to ban mining machines from being imported. And a certain miner also said that "I was pulled into an Iranian mining group before, but after the group was built, there was no movement."
With Bitcoin ups and downs, miners are the first to appreciate the positive and cold nature of the industry. Now that the market is in the trough of development, the group of miners is moving forward. In the process, some people quit halfway, and some people saw hope in the cold winter.