Analysis: a new perspective to analyze the halving of the change next year, and analyze the computing power of BTC and BCH

Many people know that it is more than 6 months before Bitcoin will be halved, which means that Bitcoin's inflation rate has dropped to around 1.7%. It can be said that it is far lower than the inflation rate of various countries. Therefore, many people judge that the price of bitcoin will skyrocket based on this. Of course, some people will judge that the price will rise based on the difficulty after halving. It ’s as simple as that. There are actually many complicated factors. I hope everyone can read it carefully. Copyright is forbidden.

Before Bitcoin halved, there was actually a halving of Bitcoin Cash, because both Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin can use the same mining machine, so this is the core element of the complexity of the entire event, because halving involves miner switching The problem of computing power is therefore worth exploring from all aspects.


1.Blocking Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash

As of the time of writing, the latest height of Bitcoin is 605899 and the latest height of Bitcoin Cash is 611149. That is to say, the difference between the two is 5250 blocks. If the difficulty is adjusted every 2016 blocks, It is estimated that the time difference between the two halving is about 35 days. According to the current progress, if the speed of bitcoin cash is not slowing down and the speed of bitcoin is not increasing, then the difference between the two halvings The number of days should not be too large.

2. Changes in computing power caused by Bitcoin cash halving first

Since it is a relatively long time around 35 days, if Bitcoin Cash is halved first and the price of the currency is not in a suitable position, it may bring the mining power of the miners. Here we assume that the miners are profit-for-profit, so The computing power will quickly switch to Bitcoin, because in these 35 days or so, the reward for each block is still 12.5 BTC, which means that the reward will be more, which will give Bitcoin cash Bringing the lack of computing power, it is assumed here that the price increases of the two are the same.

3.Bitcoin cash could be attacked

According to the foregoing, if the bitcoin cash does not reach a suitable price above the price, it will cause the miner's computing power to switch. This part of computing power can be called overflow computing power, that is, although the difficulty It may be adjusted urgently, but the amount of coins released per unit time will decrease, so about half of the computing power may run on Bitcoin, which will make Bitcoin Cash more vulnerable to 51 attacks.

4.Estimation of Bitcoin Cash Price Changes

If Bitcoin Cash wants to get rid of the attack on computing power, then the network security can only be increased through the rise in the price of the currency, so how much is the price increase more appropriate? We assume that the computing power will not change. Halving means that the number of coins produced per unit time is reduced by half. If you want to keep the computing power unchanged, you can only double the price and the computing power will become the original three cents. In the second case, the price needs to be increased by one third in order for the miners to continue mining, which is also the lifeline of mining.

5.Before Bitcoin halved

After the completion of Bitcoin Cash halving, the market began to wait for Bitcoin halving. In the process, some computing power will be switched to Bitcoin for mining. Of course, the amount brought will not be particularly large, so overall, Bitcoin halving may also proceed normally. In terms of price, since Bitcoin Cash has been halved, there is enough time to adjust the difficulty to a suitable state. From the perspective of the miner switching between the two at will, The price may change during the period before Bitcoin halving. If the price of Bitcoin cash doubles in the period of 35 days before Bitcoin halving, then the theoretical price of Bitcoin will increase by 50%.

6.Having Bitcoin in half

Finally, Bitcoin is halved. According to the difficulty adjustment mechanism, it will take 14 days before the next difficulty adjustment. Therefore, during this period, mining Bitcoin will have very low returns, so some miners may switch to mining. Bitcoin cash, resulting in increased Bitcoin cash computing power, reduced Bitcoin computing power, and eventually reached a balance between the two. Regardless of which one is switched for mining, the difference will be relatively small, and the difficulty will be adjusted to 14 days After 14 days, the difficulty of Bitcoin returned to normal, and the fluctuation of computing power after Bitcoin halved was completed.

to sum up

According to estimates, it can be roughly concluded that during the period when Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin are halved, miners can switch to Bitcoin for mining first, and then switch to Bitcoin Cash for mining. After 14 days of halving Bitcoin's difficulty adjustment, everything returned to normal. Here we use ASIC computing power as a hard currency, which means that computing power is money. The actual situation is mainly affected by the currency price. Factors, this article is for reference only!