At the third Asian Finance Forum held yesterday, Zhu Min, a well-known Chinese economist, Dean of the International Finance Institute of Tsinghua University, former vice president of the IMF, and former vice president of the People's Bank of China, gave a wonderful keynote speech to the guests. .
From the perspective of macroeconomics, Zhu Min analyzed that the Chinese economy is currently at the key challenge and turning point of moving from middle income to high income. In the past 70 years, China ’s per capita GDP has gone from 178 US dollars to nearly 10,000 US dollars today. It is a human miracle, but at the same time people can see that the challenges facing the Chinese economy in the next 10 years are huge: if we continue to grow, we will embark on South Korea's development trajectory; if it stagnates, it may follow the roads of Malaysia and Mexico.
So how can China's economy break through and develop? Zhu Min believes that it is mainly based on supply-side reform, industrial restructuring, and smart economy. At present, China's industrial structure keeps pace with the world. The proportion of agriculture and industry has dropped to 10%, while the service industry has continued to expand from 25% to 52% since 1965.
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However, Zhu civil data shows that the labor productivity of China's service industry, especially non-market-oriented service industries (such as medical education), lags seriously behind that of developed countries. This is the opportunity and challenge we face. To solve this problem requires two legs to walk, one leg is introducing competition, and the other leg is introducing technology. The service industry is the future science and technology industry, especially the development of 5G and artificial intelligence can greatly promote the service industry to improve labor efficiency and promote the booming economy.
I am fortunate to ask Dean Zhu Min as a post-80s entrepreneurial representative. When asked about the impact of blockchain technology on China's macro economy in the next 10 years, Zhu Min believed that blockchain, like 5G technology, will promote the development of the Chinese economy in the next 10 years The indispensable force for technological change is infrastructure. However, there are three main aspects of blockchain technology that take time to break through:
The first is the energy consumption of the blockchain. Because the blockchain is constrained by nodes and the efficiency of energy consumption, the process of decrypting the key becomes more and more complicated. Therefore, we are now making alliance chains, because it is still very difficult for public chains to become large-scale;
The second is the smart contract. Because the characteristics of the blockchain are bottom-up, everyone can fundamentally achieve free transactions and information transfer. The blockchain uses encryption technology to establish trust between people who do not know it. ;
The third is policy, because all our policies are bottom-up, and blockchain is a bottom-up process.
Zhu Min also emphasized that the application scenarios of blockchain technology are relatively broad, especially in the financial field, such as in payment, transaction, industrial chain, trade financing, supply chain and other aspects. But the fundamental problem is that breakthroughs in technology and policy take a long time.
Earlier, Zhu Min wrote an analysis of the possible subversion of Libra to global finance and the opportunities facing China. His insights on the international monetary system, policies, financial supervision, and digital currency and blockchain technology are impressive, and I look forward to the future Dean Zhu Min has more views on blockchain technology for economic development.