QKL123 Research Report | ahr999 Indicator-Choosing Opportunities in Long-Term Trends

Since the birth of the Bitcoin genesis block in January 2009, miners have accumulated more than 18 million BTC, and the BTC market has gone through several bulls and bears, but they are still some investors (especially geeks and early coin hoarders). Bring a huge amount of wealth. With the passage of time, with the decrease of the block rewards of the Bitcoin network and the continuous increase of the total computing power, the possibility of ordinary investors mining a large amount of BTC is very small. As a long-term investment method commonly used in the financial field, "fixed investment" can effectively amortize costs and risks. This method is also applicable to BTC investment.

The fixed investment strategy is a lazy investment strategy with a fixed investment period. It does not require timing and opportunity, but if it is supplemented by a simple timing strategy, it may better help investors control costs and increase returns. The ahr999 index is such a simple and clear timing tool.

Index View PC: https://www.qkl123.com/data/ahr999/btc

Index view mobile phone: https://m.qkl123.com/data/ahr999/btc

First, the selection strategy of fixed investment

To assist Bitcoin investors in making decisions, Weibo user ahr999 created the ahr999 index. The basic formula of the index is:

Formula 1

As shown in the above formula, the index consists of two parts. The former is the ratio of the Bitcoin price to the 200-day fixed investment cost of Bitcoin, which implies a 200-day fixed investment return rate; the latter is the ratio of the Bitcoin price to the Bitcoin fitting price. , Implies the degree of deviation of the expected price of Bitcoin.

Picture 1

In the ahr999 index, the bitcoin price is regularly fitted to obtain the function relationship between the price and the currency age, and the fitted price in the short-term future is estimated based on the function relationship. The currency age refers to the time interval between the current time point and the Bitcoin genesis block (January 3, 2009):

Formula 2

Picture 2

According to the calculation, the ratio of the price to the 200-day fixed investment cost and the ratio of the price to the fitted price can be obtained. The trend and distribution of these two multipliers are shown in the following figure:

Picture 3

Statistics show that the distributions of the two multipliers are mostly in the range of 0 ~ 2. among them:

1) When both multipliers are lower than 1, it means that the current price is lower than the 200-day fixed investment cost and lower than the fitted price expectation. Investing at this time can better amortize the cost, increase the yield expectation, or Shorten the return period, and the time to meet this condition accounts for about 18% of the total observation time. This period of time belongs to the period of time in which investors can choose to increase their investment.

2) When both multipliers are large, it means that the current price is much higher than the 200-day fixed investment cost, and it is also much higher than the fitted price expectation. The short-term fixed investment users have already obtained a high rate of return, and most of the fund chips in the short-term range have also made profits. At this time, investors can reduce the investment amount according to the specific data of the indicator.

3) When both multipliers fluctuate near 1, it means that the current price trend is in line with expectations and belongs to the interval suitable for the fixed investment strategy.

The ahr999 indicator contains the above two multipliers, making it easier for investors to monitor both multipliers simultaneously. At the current stage, we think that when the index is below 0.45, it is more suitable to increase the investment amount, and the time interval accounts for about 21%; when the index is between 0.45 and 1.2, it is suitable to adopt a fixed investment strategy, and the time interval accounts for about 39%.

2. History inspection

In order to test the validity of the index, we test it with iconic historical market prices from 2012 to the present. The bitcoin price reached a stage high in April 2013, December 2013, December 2017, and June 2019, respectively. The observation results are shown below. In order to facilitate the display of the bottom line with Index = 0.45 and the fixed investment line with Index = 1.2, the following figure performs logarithmic processing on the index.

Picture 4

April 2013: a phase high of 230 US dollars, the index intersects the bottom line in June 2012 (6 US dollars), and intersects the fixed investment line in January 2013 (17 US dollars).

December 2013: A step high of US $ 1149, the index has not intersected the fixed investment line since the last step high.

December 2017: A stage high of $ 19,535. The index intersects with the bottom line in May 2016 ($ 450) and intersects the fixed investment line in April 2017 ($ 1318).

June 2019: A phase high of $ 12,807, the index intersects with the bottom line in March 2019 ($ 3,766), and intersects the fixed investment line in May 2019 ($ 60,33).

To sum up: the ahr999 index has shown sufficient index role in the four stage highs since 2012, which can assist users to make timing investment to a certain extent.

Appendix: Study on the quantity of BTC withdrawn from circulation

According to QKL123 data, the current circulation of BTC exceeds 18 million. This number essentially represents the total amount of BTC held by all BTC addresses, and the actual amount of BTC in circulation is much smaller than this number. This situation is mainly caused by the following two reasons:

1. Some investors have permanently lost their private keys. Based on the particularity of the blockchain network, BTC on this part of the address will never be available; 2. Some long-term investors' addresses continue to absorb BTC but rarely release it. The hoarding of BTC addresses actually withdrew from circulation.

Chainalysis conducted a data analysis on the Bitcoin network in 2017 and stated that the number of BTC permanently lost was between 2.78 million and 3.79 million, accounting for 17% to 23% of the total 16.7 million pieces that were mined at the time.

Picture 5

Based on the UTXO structure of the Bitcoin network, by analyzing the age of UTXO, it can reflect the loss of BTC and the number of withdrawals to a certain extent. Statistical analysis shows that the time interval of withdrawal from circulation for more than 5 years, 3 to 5 years, and 2 to 3 years accounted for 21.62%, 5.31%, and 9.23% of BTC respectively, while the number of BTC in UTXO within March was only It accounts for 18.33% of the current total.

Picture 6

Therefore, more than 1/3 of the BTC in the Bitcoin network has essentially withdrawn from circulation, and the BTC that frequently flows in the network only accounts for about 20% of the total mining amount.