QKL123 market analysis | Gold rose sharply, Bitcoin did not rise but fell (1204)

Abstract: Affected by the news yesterday, the risk aversion surged, global stock markets and the US dollar fell, and gold rose sharply. However, crypto assets continue to decline, some on-site funds seek Bitcoin as a hedge, and off-site funds are still scarce.


According to QKL123 data statistics, at 13:00 on December 4, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 14,034.465 billion yuan, and the Babbitt Composite Index was reported at 9831.74 points. The 24-hour rise or fall was -2.24%, reflecting the market's decline. The amount was 389.791 billion yuan, the total turnover changed by -7.02%, and the market's activity decreased. The Bitcoin strength index was reported at 99.38 points, with a 24-hour rise or fall of + 1.19%. The relative performance of Bitcoin in the entire market has become stronger. ; Alternative sentiment index is 24 (previous value 28), market sentiment is extreme fear.

Among the top ten crypto assets by market value (excluding USDT), BSV has the largest 24-hour drop (-5.18%), and BNB has the smallest 24-hour drop (-1.46%). ChaiNext USDT over-the-counter premium index was reported at 100.36, with a 24-hour price change of + 0.08%; USDT's 24-hour price change was + 0.36%, and today's net inflow of funds was -3,100,700 yuan; USDC's 24-hour price change was -0.01%, and today's funds The net inflow was -100,800 yuan.

Analyst perspective:

Yesterday, the United States shifted its tariff arms from Europe to South America and imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum on the grounds of the depreciation of the currencies of Brazil and Argentina. Not only that, the United States may also use the devaluation of the U.S. dollar to deal with the trade war between big countries, which makes the dollar a safe haven for global capital also facing a crisis. In the short term, global stock markets and the US dollar fell, while gold rose sharply and hit a one-month high.

However, as a safe-haven asset, Bitcoin did not rise but fell. However, compared to altcoins, Bitcoin's decline was small, indicating that the entire market has not yet emerged from the decline. The limited funds on the market intend to seek Bitcoin to hedge. The occurrence of such a result may be related to the staged bottleneck of the development of the entire industry, because the largest breakthrough in technology or the landing of more applications has not occurred, making large off-site funds dare not rush into the market at the current point. First, the spot BTC market


Although bitcoin has been declining in recent days, the amount of release can be relatively limited. Maybe it was deliberately attracted by the main force. As long as the main force does not escape, there will be a twist of life. At this time, the market is in a dilemma when it is not high or low. From the perspective of recent capital flows, the market is quite divergent, but today there are more net outflows of funds.

Second, the spot ETH market


ETH is weak relative to BTC, and today it fell slightly to around $ 145. Today's net outflow of funds is the highest in seven days, mainly small net outflows. The address of Upbit's stolen ETH continued to be split and transferred to the trading platform, and the short-term selling pressure on the market has not been lifted.

Third, the spot LTC market


LTC continues to weakly link BTC, which is currently approaching the previous low. It has been slightly heavy for a short time but has not fallen below the previous low, waiting for the market to choose a direction. Judging from the recent net inflow of funds, the net outflow has decreased, and there may be a short-term turnaround.

Fourth, the spot EOS market


After a small amount of heavy downwards today, EOS fluctuated around $ 2.6, waiting for the broad market to choose a direction for a short time.

V. Analyst Strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC has begun to deteriorate. If the market rebounds and weakens, those with heavy positions can reduce their positions on rallies, and those without heavy positions can choose to vote. The relative price of BTC of smart contract platform leader ETH, altcoin leader LTC, and DPoS leader EOS is close to the year's low. Those with heavy positions can reduce their positions on high prices, and those without heavy positions can choose fixed investment.

2. Midline (January to March)

Bitcoin has been repaired after it deviated from the 200-day moving average. Those with heavy positions can lighten up on rallies, and those without heavy positions wait and see.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

The overall trend is weak, but BTC may also make up for the market, and wait and see for a short time.


Appendix: Interpretation of Indicators

Babbitt Composite Index

The Babbitt Comprehensive Index (8BTCCI) is composed of the most representative tokens with large scale and good liquidity in the existing global blockchain market, in order to comprehensively reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain token market.

2.Bitcoin Strength Index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the exchange rate of Bitcoin in the entire Token market, and then reflects the strength of Bitcoin's competition in the market. It is used to measure the change in the relative price of Bitcoin to a package of Tokens. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger Bitcoin is in the Token market.

3.Alternative mood index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects changes in market sentiment. 0 means "extremely scared" and 100 means "extremely greedy." The components of this indicator include: volatility (25%), transaction volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), and trend (10%).

4.USDT OTC Premium Index

The ChaiNext USDT OTC INDEX index is obtained by dividing the USDT / CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. When the index is 100, it means the USDT parity, when the index is greater than 100, it means the USDT premium, and when it is less than 100, it means the USDT discount.

5.Net Funds Inflow (Out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds in the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow and outflow of funds from global trading platforms (excluding false transactions), a positive value indicates a net inflow of funds, and a negative value indicates a net outflow of funds. Among them, the turnover is counted as inflow of funds when rising, and the turnover is counted as outflow when falling.

Note: Crypto assets are high-risk assets. This article is for decision-making reference only and does not constitute investment advice.