Recently, I have repeatedly thought about an interesting problem. Only one hundred years ago, it was difficult for human beings to cross all continents quickly (there was only an airplane capable of carrying passengers in the 1920s), but today, a hundred years later, The earth has become so small that civilizations have to join forces to find new consensus and symbiotic systems in the ever-increasing conflicts and games.
No one seems to be able to answer clearly what kind of system will gain new dominance.
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The previous time took a rough look at many historical archeological events around the world, and was inspired by some. So I tried to write something to see if I could find some clues or evolutionary laws for the system on which humans depend. We refer to the discussion.
I upgraded the human system and organized it into a main line composed of keywords, namely: six progressive systems of religion, military, law, US dollar, Internet, and blockchain. These six systems can be said to form the Neolithic Age. Until now, and even in the future, the entire human system has evolved.
What is a system? For example, it is similar to the WeChat that everyone uses now. It is a relatively complete small system. You can complete many things in this system. The functions and rules of this system are the boundaries of all your actions. Can make full use of the tools.
If we stand on the order that all human beings can rely on, we need a large system that can bind all people and all social behavior.
Let's talk about religion first.
The religion I am talking about does not actually refer to the Buddhism, Christianity, etc. that we are now seeing. What I am talking about is that from the archeology of the Neolithic era, a sapiens have known the world and influenced the distribution of power, The "mysterious" forces that dominate various orders.
For a long time since the birth of mankind to the Stone Age, it can be said that the god-dominated penalty system that started with witchcraft is the highest ritual of all human actions.
Sacrifice and war are the biggest events in the clan society, and are generally presided over by the Supreme Chief and Priest (Wizard). So if you look at the archeological excavations in the Neolithic Age, as long as you find that the tomb owner is both a high priest and a warrior, then it is likely that it is the highest leader of the entire clan.
Later, several major religions were born one after another, and the struggle for royal power and divine power ran for tens of centuries, but the divine power was still an important underlying system to ensure the orderly operation of the entire society.
With the development of the cold weapon era, the ability of humans to produce tools has been continuously improved, and great progress has been made in defeating the natural environment. Many problems can be solved by force, and the role of witchcraft and religion is gradually weakened. Ethnic groups can build castles and cities that can resist the attack of wild beasts and other ethnic groups in places where there are no natural dangers such as mountains and rivers. Only then did major civilizations such as characters appear.
But as long as there is a place for defense, there will be attacks. The strength of war has become a new social rule. At the same time, war has also become the main means of allocating resources and ensuring social order.
In order to support the war again and again, mankind invented various ideas and tools, which laid the foundation for the development of science and technology. Military operation logic replaced witchcraft and "religion" and became a new system that dominated world order.
Military capability is a dynamic evolution process. With the expansion of military capability, the land and population that the conqueror needs to manage will increase exponentially. Without a more neutral and credible rule, it is difficult to have sustainable output and conquer. It is also difficult to obtain fixed taxes and the like.
Therefore, at this time, the legal system expanded and eventually evolved into a common law system and a civil law system. The two seem to have the same goal, but there is still a big difference. As a tool for the government, in the context of the common law system, government power and majesty come from justice, while in the context of civil law system, government power comes from administration.
My personal understanding is that the common law system is more likely to stimulate the desire for wealth creation in society, and the strength of the civil law system should be wealth distribution. Therefore, the common law system in the United States and the United States still has strong economic vitality, but it has not become a welfare society. The economic vitality of the mainland has declined, but it has become a welfare society.
In the long run, the conflict between continental Europe and Britain and the United States, and the conflict between China and the United States are essentially similar legal system conflicts, but the development stages of such conflicts are different.
But the problem is that the world is still developing at a high speed. Before the two legal systems have decided or won't merge or merge with each other, a new operating system begins to intervene. Although the law still maintains an important underlying rule, it is difficult to satisfy the Vietnam With more and more complex globalization trends, new variables have been added.
In the era of global trade, mankind needs more than just static legal provisions, but the integration of various forms of social interaction.
Gold has played the role of currency for a long time, but it lacks convenience and the output of gold is too scarce to meet the high-speed growth demand of human beings for contracts and efficiency. At this time, it is possible for a single country to provide the currency system. The decoupling of the US dollar from gold and greater globalization is actually the birth of a new social system.
Over the past half century, the development of capitalism and emerging economies is a condensed history of dollar distribution. Most of human behaviors revolve around the US dollar. The monetary system maintained by the United States can be said to be the global rule of the last half century. Currency has become the most important underlying system of human beings. Several countries have the ability to dominate the dollar system.
After entering the 21st century, in addition to the US dollar, more people are connected by the Internet, the world becomes flat, the asymmetry of information is severely weakened, and new fields such as politics and economics have to make new changes. .
The Internet can not only control the US elections, but also allow China to establish a more efficient transaction payment system than the United States in a short period of time. The Internet has become the central system for humans to obtain information, transmit government orders, maintain public opinion, generate transactions, and complete production. The rules of the Internet have become a new model of human behavior. Under this system, no matter individuals, organizations or countries, they are swept relentlessly And become the aborigines of the Internet.
With the advent of the Internet era, the US dollar has become a sub-system under the Internet system. Although the US dollar system is still very important, the pure US dollar (currency system) can no longer handle the more complex Internet era needs.
Blockchain (self-running protocol)
The traditional Internet is similar to the state, the military, the nation, and so on, and it has a very obvious centralization. More and more people have gathered on the traditional Internet, but their dominance has become more concentrated. This concentration effect even exceeds religion. There are three major religions worldwide, but only one Google.
One of the reasons why the United States has shifted its focus of "security" strategy to China is that China is the only country that can surpass the United States in the future system construction level, that is, the Internet-based system construction. dish.
The efficiency, transparency and standardization promoted by the Internet will be the mainstream systems and models that dominate the entire world for a long time to come. But the traditional Internet has not solved the problem of ultimate trust.
For a time, people believed in gods, violence, law, currency, and the Internet, but this trust only moved from lower-level trust to higher-level trust, and it did not break away from the dependence on the centralized organization that created trust itself. It must have a strong endorsement logic to make it trust. The traditional Internet requires specific companies to make final credit guarantees. For example, I just caught up with the collapse of the Alipay APP yesterday because of the temporary jitter in the computer room network.
The traditional Internet is destined to be a transitional stage for the appreciation of the human system. The mission of the traditional Internet is to change the scale of human interaction. The use of information technology has allowed billions of people who could not be brought together to manage together, and migrated to the common space of the Internet. The shortening of distance is countless times more efficient than any vehicle and telegram, and the cost is also greatly reduced. But it also makes its system very fragile and has a huge impact.
In recent years, the emergence of autonomous driving, smart robots, and Bitcoin is considered by many to be just a new era of industrial innovation. In fact, this is not the fourth or fifth industrial revolution. It is based on the traditional Internet. The budding of the new human bottom survival system from the system upgrade. This is not just a question of industrial technology, but also a holistic upgrade of politics, economics, mathematics, sociology, philosophy, etc.
Air, water, and gold are self-running systems (blockchains), not religion, military, law, currency, traditional Internet, etc. But air, water, and gold have too few things to carry. They cannot carry transparency, contracts, laws, power, distribution, security, democracy, and so on, because they are severely constrained by the physical world, and they cannot be centralized in the real world. Physical equipment operates efficiently on its own. Even gold, a self-running system with strong financial and monetary properties and the highest degree of global consensus, is also very inconvenient to operate, which limits its scalability and the ability to create the next generation of super systems. .
Bitcoin was born in 2009, and the self-running system of blockchain appeared on earth. Blockchain can carry the most excellent system invented in all stages of human beings. It is transparent and immutable. It can replace administrative review and clear responsibility. It does not require centralized power to maintain operation. It has natural international attributes and can replace Various international transnational agreements, eliminating barriers based on religion, ideology, etc .; it has great scalability, can generate new contracts and property rights with different attributes, and can replace legal contracts and securities; it has considerable security Security and anti-attack capabilities, can save a lot of defensive expenditures to maintain security.
In short, the blockchain system can carry multiple roles such as currency, law, bank, contract, settlement agency, international agreement, and so on, without worrying about the consensus and reliability of the system behind it.
Of course, before the new system has penetrated into every corner of the world, people will still rely on the original system. Just as we currently rely on the Internet, currency, and legal systems, we also rely on religious and military systems.
The birth of a new system does not mean the failure of the original system. These systems are the crystallization of human wisdom and the continuation of human civilization. It is likely to coexist for a long time, but the role played by each system will be Shows the obvious ups and downs.
Although China has a highly scalable mobile payment network, the United States has gradually released Libra, an international currency based on blockchain and the US dollar issued by Facebook. The US Treasury Secretary has made it clear today that as long as it is not used to finance terrorist activities, bank secrecy and Anti-money laundering regulations, the United States will not oppose Facebook's innovative digital currency. This will make the dollar a subsystem of the blockchain, but Facebook belongs to the United States. Will the future world still be the United States first?