The emergence of the commodity futures market originated from a beautiful original intention. Although the price of goods depends on supply and demand, under the environment of asymmetric information and lack of conditions such as transportation and storage, the contradiction between excess and shortage of goods often brings huge risks to consumers and producers. This risk was not circumvented or reduced by hedging until the emergence of commodity futures. From the original intention, the representative meaning of commodity futures is safety. It is a financial innovation that gives producers and consumers the ability to reverse risks by limiting the risks to a certain atmosphere through reverse operation to obtain the expected stable returns. Products, like the security awareness that comes with insurance products.
Nowadays, this original intention is gradually lost, even to its opposite side. When people refer to commodity futures, the key word first thought is often risk. Engaging in commodity futures trading means bearing huge risks, not a sense of security. The reason is that the leading players in commodity futures have changed, from a group of producers and consumers to a group of speculators that make price fluctuations.
When speculators take the leading role on the stage, a life-and-death game in an extremely tragic capital market is bound to be unavoidable. Feng Qingping has been studying the past and present of the digital asset market, and has also tried to judge the future. On the issue of commodity futures, such as walking on thin ice, working hard all day long, not involving Dachuan.
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The current virtual currency commodity futures exchanges, including digital currency exchanges that provide futures contract transactions, have experienced countless violent short-term fluctuations. Although there is no conclusive evidence that some incredible trends are man-made, they still Through the analysis of some events, it is possible to penetrate through the behind-the-scenes black-handed manipulative path selection.
On March 8, 2018, the Binance Exchange saw the incident "One coin was not lost but was hacked." Binance's failure was mainly caused by the hacking of some API robots. Hackers used the stolen user's account to buy VIA at a high price, which caused the price of the highest point of VIA to be exploded to $ 0.025, an increase of more than 11,000% compared with the lowest point in 24H. It seems that hackers have to make profits through the unnamed small currency VIA, but in fact, otherwise, the hackers are not so stupid. Binance can "disallow withdrawals" and let its former achievements be abandoned. What happened later revealed the real intention of the hacker step by step.
The news came out that the cryptocurrency markets including Binance and Huobi have plummeted. As of 9:53 am on March 8, Beijing time, according to the world-renowned digital currency market website coinmarketca, the top ten currencies are listed. All fell sharply, of which BTC's 24-hour decline was as high as 7.81%, and Cardano's fell nearly 12%. At this point, Sima Zhao's heart of the hacker surfaced. They attack Binance, but the harvesting benefits do not need to come from Binance. While other exchanges have plummeted, hackers have used the previously established digital currencies and tokens to sell short orders on various exchanges around the world. When the value of the currency drops, a wave of leaves is directly harvested.
At this point, the truth is clear, hackers avoided the easy to lose hands, and transferred the troublesome theft of stolen coins, and adopted short selling of cash to sell mainstream virtual currencies such as bitcoin to win the empty layout in advance on the global futures trading market. Single income. It is estimated that in this operation, the hackers have increased the leverage ratio to the limit, and the leverage of more than 100 times was already very common at the time. It can be imagined that the short-selling profit of this operation should be extremely rich.
Speculators profit from futures by manipulating the spot market, so we know that futures are the manipulation tools of speculators. Of course, the futures market can be arranged by manipulating the spot market, and the spot market can also be profited by manipulating the futures market. The two interact with each other and set off together, which is an indispensable whole. Some speculators with technology but no capital strength can only use their own technical advantages, concentrate on finding and using loopholes in high-traffic exchanges, and take an addiction to make huge profits. With the occurrence of such incidents, major exchanges have strengthened their protection, digging deeper barriers, and building walls. It is expected that the chances of such a risk are becoming increasingly slim and difficult to reproduce.
This is only for bettors with technical and incompetent skills. If you have the financial strength, why take this wire and fully control the daily manipulation of virtual currency futures trading. In this way, we often hear events such as “pins”, short-term surges and short-term events, contract investors ’frequent stock-outs, and the generous returns generated by frequent stock-outs are enough to make people tempted, so we will see digital currency exchanges listing futures. Contract transactions, trying to all have a share. The futures trading, especially the emerging digital asset futures exchange, may not only be the first to win the pricing right of virtual currencies, but also to harvest the warehouses of the ignorant and fearless in the current chaotic period. Therefore, the grassroots entrepreneur BitMex suffered Strict supervision and rectification, in response to this, the rich second-generation Bakkt with long-sleeve and good-spirited hands came into being. The wealthy outsider Binance avoided the hot spots of competition and moved away from weak areas on Wall Street. The JEX exchange in the Indian Ocean Island State of Seychelles. Especially during the bear market, investors, especially retail investors, were indifferent in trading sentiment, and the fee income generated by the operation was greatly reduced. As a result, the exchange was more eager to achieve liquidation by frequently creating soaring and plunging fluctuations, and blood-washing retail investors for profit. From this perspective, the current digital currency transaction is not only a gambling house, but also a slaughterhouse. It is a bully for power and bullying.
The original function of futures contract products was to avoid risks, hedging, and pricing functions. Many previous examples of digital currency futures exchanges have demonstrated that its more functional weight is distributed on speculative manipulation for profit, which creates a larger Risk, instead of bringing security, has become a tool of speculation, not a means of hedging. It is a stage for speculators instead of the value of producers. This is really the opposite.
Especially when the exchange lacks supervision, there is a serious lack of transparency, huge manipulation space, insufficient alertness of retail investors, and extremely chaotic market order, which is the natural soil for such manipulation and trading.
In the current environment, those engaged in the trading of futures contracts ca n’t do it for non-intelligent and brave people. On the contrary, in fact, there is only one end of the wise and brave heroes, so there can only be one ending, that is, enchantment everywhere, corpses everywhere. Sun Ziyun: The way of life and death of the soldiers' country is a must-see. The futures market is like a battlefield, but it is deadly. However, investors have to look into it, and regulators need to pay enough attention to it.
Therefore, Feng Qingping believes that the core of the regulation of the blockchain industry lies in digital currencies. The key lies not only in the process of issuing coins, but also in market circulation transactions. The key to preventing manipulation lies in futures contracts.
In fact, ETF is a financial innovation that has attracted much attention in recent years. Its essence is an open-end fund that can be freely purchased, redeemed, and real-time traded. It has both the operating characteristics of closed-end and open-end funds, and has diversified investment risks, Low transaction and management costs and high transparency. However, applications for the BTC ETF started in 2016, but why do they always run into walls? The main reasons for applying for non-return are: hidden market manipulation risks, liquidity risks, lack of global market supervision and sharing mechanisms, and opaque information. In addition, issues such as the suspension of transactions during the trading process, the "forking" behavior of BTC during the operation process, and the price changes of BTC ETF to BTC during its rest period have not yet been resolved.
The main reason for these problems to be more prominent and bear the brunt is the hidden manipulation risks, especially the rendering of real-time hot news in the media, which caused panic surges by selling in the spot market and plunged for a short time, thereby winning huge profits from highly leveraged futures contracts. The speech by Chairman Xi in the first 10.24 and the later national mainstream media's crackdown on the currency circle were two rare operating opportunities. The former was long and the latter was short.
In times of bleak market, hotspots are needed, so a large-scale coordinated publicity will be generated with the help of a series of well-known personalities or important agency behaviors. Therefore, we believe that hotspots will never be scarce because there will always be hotspot manufacturers such as The liquidity created by the exchange or project market value operators, especially the short-term burst of the low-profile small currency; the artificially created bull market in the second quarter of 2019 is the successful operation of its approach. By analyzing the investment trajectory and mutual context behind some blockchain funds, we can see that their criss-crossed interests are connected. Behind many funds, there is a nepotism that damages everything.
Alan Greenspan said that it is difficult to change nature, and people's emotions can easily change between optimism and pessimism, which will make them repeat the mistakes of excessive speculation. The controller often uses this emotion to fan the flames and create situations such as irrational prosperity. This kind of scene, in Feng Qingping's view, is like the magnificent and tragic moths fighting fires in the night. Even if the exchanges are flexible and comfortable with their service experience, they also provide methods such as perpetual contracts to show and please retail investors, and even issue vows "Never pin", but it is difficult to fundamentally establish a standardized, transparent and fair Third party image.
As a friend, I would advise people to pay attention to digital assets. As a friend, I would never advise people to engage in futures trading. However, not all controllers of futures trading can succeed. There is also a dispute between opinion traders and nepotism. If the futures market forms a trust group, the result is likely to be exhausted. Alliance powers are also difficult to form. There are also some arrogant futures controllers who are not in control. Under the premise of determining the general trend, for example, the formation of the industrial foundation, the market education is in place, the policy space is proper, and the basics are being used. If you are still trying to sell short, , It is tantamount to becoming a victim of a rolling cart falling out of the praying arm. Successful people who come out of the traditional futures market often seize similar opportunities and stand out, such as Fu Haitang, who is engaged in agricultural futures trading. The success is based on a high degree of systematic understanding of the ecology of the cotton and soybean industries. It has a global control over the industry market and has a thorough understanding of the formation mechanism of its spot price. It can also be described as a typical representative of a decade of sharpening a sword. Anyone who manipulates the short is a futile loser in front of the trend, and no one can defeat the trend. However, this kind of opportunity is extremely rare. Investors with such vision and courage can accurately grasp and control the critical ignition condition, and there are still a few people who can successfully harvest the dealer at a critical moment!
Therefore, the proportion and difficulty of traditional futures practitioners and those who have achieved long-term victories are no less than that of the Chinese two-color ball. Futures investment is more like art than science, and it is impossible to summarize special relativity formulas such as E = mc ^ 2 or The law, obtaining a set of templates to guide investment once and for all, depends more on personal understanding and cultivation, and these require long-term experience and improvement.
If it is said that digital currency issuance financing is an upheaval, it is an area that needs to be incorporated into a cage for supervision, and the circulation of digital currency is the throat of supervision and a link that requires urgent compliance. So, in summary, there is no doubt Futures trading other than spot trading has evolved into the hardest hit area for wanton cut-offs. It seems to have become a place outside the law. It has completely reached the opposite of the original intention of futures and has become a tool manipulated by speculators. The burial place of retail merchants who were bullied.
Survival or destruction, this is a choice!