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"No industry has ever changed as fast as the blockchain, which was unexpected." After a year of silence, Zhang Xu once again stood on the Guomao Building overlooking Shino, still playing with the string of sandalwood beads in his hand.
"Take Blockchain as an important breakthrough in independent innovation of core technology." On October 24, Xi Jinping emphasized the need to clarify the main attack direction when he hosted the eighteenth collective study on the development status and trends of the Blockchain technology of the CPC Central Political Bureau , Increase investment, focus on capturing a number of key core technologies, and accelerate the development of blockchain technology and industrial innovation.
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After CCTV's "News Broadcast" was broadcast that night, it was madly praised on Weibo and the circle of friends. Many blockchain entrepreneurs told Nuclear Finance APP that this video was enthusiastic.
Stimulated by the favorable policies, currency stocks were both hot, and the "FOMO (fear of missing)" mood was staged in a crazy form. On the evening of October 25, Bitcoin rose rapidly, rising by more than 40%. On October 28, blockchain concept stocks led the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, with nearly a hundred stocks trading daily.
The cheers have not yet fallen. What Zhang Xu did not expect was that the supervision suddenly struck and the style of painting suddenly changed. On November 14, the Shanghai Joint Office for Financial Stability and the People's Bank of China's Shanghai Headquarters' Mutual Funds Rectification Office jointly issued the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Trading Venues".
It seems that overnight, the market reversed, and the "gangster theory" began to spread. Since then, a nationwide clean-up and consolidation of virtual digital currency exchanges has gradually opened. The Binance Research team believes that the current regulatory crackdown is targeted at projects / personnel with obvious illegalities such as fraud, money laundering, and pyramid schemes.
Don't wait for him to calm down and drop the hammer again. On December 5, the Beijing Municipal Financial Supervision and Administration Bureau disclosed that Beijing was the first country in China to launch a pilot of financial technology innovation supervision and explore the construction of a prudent and inclusive China version of the “supervision sandbox”. This is a breakthrough progress in fintech innovation supervision three months after the release of "FinTech Development Plan (2019-2021)".
Beijing takes the lead in piloting fintech "supervision sandbox" nationwide
Over the past few days, online reviews have been rushing. Several analysts pointed out that digital currencies may be the first to enter the pilot, giving fintech products and the regulatory system a chance to experiment.
According to Caijing, the central bank ’s legal digital currency pilot project led by the People ’s Bank of China, including the four major state-owned commercial banks of Industry, Agriculture, China, and Construction, and China Telecom, China Telecom, and China Unicom is expected to be in Landed in Shenzhen and Suzhou.
This made Zhang Xu, who had been included in the "Lao Lai Blacklist" after the failure of blockchain entrepreneurship, look around. The national team and big factories were ignited and "playful". The native blockchain circle was ebb and ended bleakly. At the time of the logical transformation, the "three major battles" of the blockchain world were set off.
See the true chapter of the top design
"Blockchain is the product of the digital economy era." Zhang Xu found that in the past two months, the support and supervision policies on blockchain have been released intensively.
On October 26, the 14th Session of the Standing Committee of the 13th National People's Congress voted to pass the "Cryptography Law", which will come into effect on January 1, 2020. It aims to standardize the application and management of passwords, promote the development of passwords, ensure the security of networks and information, and improve the scientific, standardized, and legalized level of password management. It is a comprehensive and basic law in the field of passwords in China.
On October 31, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee reviewed and approved the "Central CPC Central Committee's Decision on Adhering to and Perfecting the Socialist System with Chinese Characteristics, Promoting the National Governance System, and Modernizing Governance Capabilities. Among them, for the first time, data and labor, capital, land, knowledge, technology, management, and other factors of production participate in the distribution side by side, which has epoch-making significance.
On November 6, the Development and Reform Commission revised and issued the Catalogue for the Guidance of Industrial Structure Adjustment (2019 Edition). It is worth noting that the entry about "virtual currency mining" has been deleted. In other words, "mining" is no longer considered a category that is a serious waste of resources and must be eliminated.
"Every indication is that China has begun to make institutional preparations for the digital economy." Zhang Xu believes that the blockchain technology is making the digital economy become a reality. In particular, for the first time, "data" is listed as a production factor to participate in distribution, marking that the digital economy with data as a key factor has entered a new era.
The UN Secretary-General of the World Digital Economy Committee of the United Nations WOGC Organization Yan Yan believes that the biggest advantage of the digital economy is the "consensus mechanism", which is a "self-consensus" based on openness, fairness and fairness. The emergence of blockchain technology was considered by Wei Kai, deputy director of the Institute of Cloud Computing and Big Data of the Telecommunications Research Institute of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, to change the production relationship of "data".
Not long ago, at the Fifty People Forum in China's capital market, Wei Kai said that the current digital economy has just started and is facing pain points such as untrusted data, difficulty in determining power, information silos, and imbalance of interests. The core of the blockchain lies in it. Can solve many problems related to "data".
As we all know, in the field of digital economy, the most core and cutting-edge technology is summarized as ABCDI, namely Artificial Intelligence, Blockchain, Cloud Computing, Big Data, Things Internet of Things.
Many experts believe that blockchain is the core technology of the digital economy and one of the infrastructures of the digital economy. The state regards blockchain as an important breakthrough in independent innovation of core technology. "The combination of the two is self-evident," Zhang Xu said.
On November 4, the official website of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Reply to the Recommendation of the Second Session of the Thirteenth National People's Congress No. 1394". Improve the blockchain standard system, accelerate the implementation of industrial applications, and promote the healthy and orderly development of the blockchain.
From the perspective of supporting policies, the country has spread out from the technical layer, the application layer, and the industrial layer. According to statistics, nine provincial (municipal) governments across the country have launched blockchain industry funds based on their own conditions, with a total size of nearly 40 billion yuan. Among them, Hangzhou Xiong'an Global Blockchain Innovation Fund is the earliest blockchain industry fund in the country. The scale of fund projects initiated by Hangzhou, Nanjing and Henan has reached 10 billion yuan, which is currently the largest blockchain industry fund.
"To the Moon!" Zhang Xu has been planning for this for a long time, and now he can't wait.
Digital currency is irreversible
"The wealth of the future is not the US dollar, let alone gold, but digital currency based on blockchain technology." Zhang Xu said categorically, there is a tendency of "not surprisingly endless".
His argument seemed to add a footnote to Facebook's Libra after it came out. When it comes to this, Zhang Xu even adds fuel and vinegar, and speaks proudly. Judging from the unissued digital currency electronic payment ("DCEP") disclosed by the People's Bank, it is moving in that direction.
"It's like when the blockchain first appeared, as the underlying technology of Bitcoin." Zhang Xu said that so far, digital currency is still the only "mature" application scenario of the blockchain. Moreover, Singapore analyst Lindon Wang believes that the application of digital currencies has become an irresistible trend.
However, according to the current development trend, it may disappoint the loyal fans of Bitcoin. The reason is that fiat digital currency is an extension and performance of fiat currency in the digital world, it is just a new form of currency.
Zhang Xu judged that after a large number of altcoins fell, the central bank's legal digital currency will be ready to come out.
On October 28, Huang Qifan, vice chairman of the China International Economic Exchange Center, said at the first Bund Financial Summit that the digital currency launched by the People's Bank of China is a new encrypted electronic currency system based on blockchain technology. It will adopt a two-tier operating system. That is, the People's Bank of China first exchanged DCEPs with banks or other financial institutions, and then these institutions exchanged them with the public.
"Our goal is to replace a portion of M0, that is, to replace some cash with digital currency." Yi Gang, the governor of the People's Bank of China, said.
In addition, Mu Changchun, deputy director of the Bank's Payment and Settlement Department, said that it is still in the state of horse racing. Several designated operating agencies have adopted different technical routes for DCEP research and development. Ultimately, who will win the competition depends on the acceptance of the people and the market.
On December 5, the "People's Bank of China launched the Pilot Work on Fintech Innovation Supervision Pilot" published by the People's Bank of China stated that the People's Bank of China supports the first pilot pilot of fintech innovation supervision in Beijing, and explores the establishment of a country that is in line with China's national conditions and in line with international standards. Fintech innovation regulatory tools.
"The People's Bank of China Launches Pilot Work on Fintech Innovation Supervision"
Fan Yifei, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, said recently that in the next step, he will follow the principles of stability, security, and controllability, rationally select pilot verification regions, scenarios, and service scopes, continue to optimize and enrich DCEP functions, and steadily promote the introduction and application of digital forms of fiat currencies. And after the "People's Bank of China launched the pilot project of financial technology innovation supervision", Zhang Xu believes that the pilot and application of DCEP will be greatly accelerated.
In contrast, the legal digital currencies of many countries have also emerged. A report released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in July this year pointed out that nearly 70% of central banks around the world are studying fiat digital currencies.
Not long ago, Reuters said that Japan is building an international transaction network for cryptocurrency payments, similar to the SWIFT system used by banks, and can bypass the US dollar in trade areas such as oil with many global countries including Iran. De-dollarization in some commodity areas. It is speculated that Japan is trying to build a new financial system that does not rely on the dollar.
In addition, on October 8, UNICEF established the Cryptocurrency Fund, whose main task is to accept donations from cryptocurrencies; on November 16, the BRICS considered developing a settlement for trade transactions within the five countries. Encrypted. It can be seen that digital currencies have taken shape in the application of international organizations and countries.
Blockchain application boom
After October 24, the upsurge of blockchain applications has resumed. Zhang Xu believes that at present, this big change from the top to the bottom like a storm is gradually being conducted.
However, he soon discovered that its development logic had changed. "The biggest feeling is that letting one side shout the slogan 'Change the world' while doing the market value management on the other side, the project side that collects 'IQ tax' has no room for survival," he said.
On November 19th, the focus interview of the CCTV program went straight to the hot-word blockchain and broadcast the short video of "Investigating Blockchain Scams: Chaos is Worrying", and even took stocks of zero coins or air coins in the market. There are 755 types and 102 types of MLM coins, which warns people to stay away from speculation and fraud.
Genesis MEETUP founder Zhang Haibo bluntly stated that most blockchain projects will be reduced to trial and error in this cold winter. He believes that after the emergence of Ethereum, people thought that the public chain was the future of the blockchain. However, the story of the public chain can no longer be told, from competing for millions of TPS, to building a DApp ecosystem, and to pursuing DeFi.
"At this time, we found that the most important thing in blockchain is not technology, but the ability to make blood in business. I judge that in the past 2 years, blockchain projects dominated by technology leaders will be dominated by keen entrepreneurs in the commercial market. Big coffee will become CTO. "He said.
An industry insider who asked not to be named said that from a strong attack by the regulatory authorities to correcting the development direction of the blockchain, it suggested that the "regular army" was ready to enter. Zhang Xu believes that most people have no doubt about this.
The Binance Research team believes that the capture of blockchain value has two directions: one is the value of the distributed ledger (non-currency blockchain / permit chain / alliance chain); the second is the value of the self-incentive system (public chain) .
From the perspective of the development of blockchain technology, the western countries headed by the United States are mainly public chains and the layout is concentrated in the financial field; China's blockchain is dominated by alliance chains and is stepping up in government services, social governance and industrial economy. And other applications.
"If the blockchain cannot be combined with industry, no matter how advanced the technology is, it will be of no value." Yu Jianing, president of Huobi University and former director of the Institute of Industrial Economics of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, pointed out in an interview with Nuclear Finance APP that the Internet is more than just communication Similarly, blockchain is more than just a ledger. It is a multi-level innovation based on technological innovation, digital finance as the driving force, and industrial innovation as the value. It is a new species.
At the same time, industry experts said that in the next stage, under the guidance of the "to G" business, the blockchain will truly land from the government, people's livelihood, and entities. Zhang Mingjing, the founder of Lianxing Capital, further stated that the blockchain will be deeply integrated in the real economy, digital economic model innovation, the application of blockchain + people's livelihood, the construction of new smart cities, and larger-scale interconnectedness between cities (Information / (Funds / talents / credits, etc.), joint maintenance and utilization of government data (cross-sectoral / regional), etc.
It is worth mentioning that in this stream of blockchain application landings, it has been clearly divided into two camps, one is the government and large factories as the regular army, and the other is the chain circle, the currency circle , Mining circle, etc.
At present, major manufacturers such as Ali, Tencent and Baidu have launched BaaS, an open platform for blockchain, and have achieved dazzling results. Li Jiang, senior strategic consultant of Cloud & AI of Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd., said at the 50-person forum of the Chinese capital market that Huawei has realized the data upload of 53 commissions and offices in the city only in the directory chain project of the Beijing Economic and Information Bureau Data sharing between commissions and offices has improved the efficiency of government services.
"For most blockchain startup teams, the current situation is very awkward." Zhang Haibo believes that they lack a profit model and are busy taking out projects to outsource in order to survive. This is a true portrayal of the industry.
Next, the application of the blockchain is thousands of miles away. In the words of Chen Caigen, the founder of Tiantian Shaoxing, "righting is opportunity, and offset is risk."
(At the request of the interviewee, Zhang Xu is a pseudonym in the text)